PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If they do a radio show all models will show cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If they do a radio show all models will show cutters. Or OTS either way the MECS option will no longer be on the table. And I swear if Henry thinks about touching that stupid hat.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If they do a radio show all models will show cutters. If "radio show" is mentioned, we can stop watching the models. It is good to see the ensemble mean more consistent with previous runs and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I am surprised it took this long to get one crazy run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I am surprised it took this long to get one crazy run of the GFS. Exactly. Always have to expect a crazy run from the GFS at some point. I would not be suprised to see it lose the storm completely in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 meh, it's the 18z. It's a throw-away....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's one run. If the 00z run shows the same thing, or a farther north solution then you may have the start of a 'trend'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 meh, it's the 18z. It's a throw-away....right? It has no support and its the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It has no support and its the 18z As many have said before, the overall accuracy between 0z,6z,12z and 18z are roughly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lets just lock in the 18z (grasping at straws) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think the issue is not so much that it's the 18z, just that it has little support from other models...i'd love to see it verify being in Pittsburgh, but very unlikely it will...I'm more concerned about the system being a bowling ball and sliding by to my south. Btw, don't get the euro love affair as of late... I feel the gfs handled the last system a bit better than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 actually the overphase solution of the 18z GFS with that Srfce Low plcment is a "good" sign it will realistically be 300m to the SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 As poorly as the ensemble members honed in on a solution for this past weekend, 8 of the 12 (including the op) had a generally similar solution to the 18Z Op - 4 were flatter and scooted out. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf138.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 As poorly as the ensemble members honed in on a solution for this past weekend, 8 of the 12 (including the op) had a generally similar solution to the 18Z Op - 4 were flatter and scooted out. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf138.html just about all ensembles on there are south of operational model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 just about all ensembles on there are south of operational model True..but some of the ones that are south are also very weak and really don't give any snow to the I-95 corridor. Looks like 3 of the members are similar to the OP and cut pretty far north before jumping to the coast. A few thread the needle and look more like the 12Z OP and come only far enough north to just barely keep DC-north all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Xmas storm is happening when the strong -NAO is translating to a +NAO which happens after a KU storm pretty often. This makes me think that there is a decent chance for a east coast blizzard, but not a lock yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Xmas storm is happening when the strong -NAO is translating to a +NAO which happens after a KU storm pretty often. This makes me think that there is a decent chance for a east coast blizzard, but not a lock yet. Wow very cool, I do agree with the NAO rise this storm seems likely....Should be a fun week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It would be nice to get some insurance from the ggem/ukmet tonight ....If they start showing hits then i think this one will start to look alot better...If they keep this thing supressed that certainly would not be encouraging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the 18z GFS has as Much chanceof being right as the giants beating the eagles in todays game ouch...I cant even begin to..ugh, lets leave it that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It would be nice to get some insurance from the ggem/ukmet tonight ....If they start showing hits then i think this one will start to look alot better...If they keep this thing supressed that certainly would not be encouraging.. I would be fairly encouraged if they stayed somewhat suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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