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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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The main point is that this is the exact scenario I and others were sort of expecting all along. That is, that the end result would tend towards the southern models (UKMET/Canadian) and away from the northern ones (GFS/Euro). I've been fairly consistent with this--note my posts before the 12z GFS about the UKMET/Canadian being good models, and that they shouldn't be discounted.

 

That all being said, I would expect the GFS to remain south for the next several runs and even drift further south, before inching back north a touch. So my best guess is that where the 12z GFS shows the storm now is pretty much right where it'll end up being. Which isn't bad, I'll definitely take the ~6" of snow!

Doesn't it bother you, though, that the GFS has been flopping around this much? 

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Agreed!! That damn Accuwx 12-18" map this morning had me a little excited... coming back down to Earth now

Still feel like the mets we have posting here are better than anyone who works at Accu... their entire website basically just uses the latest GFS as a forecast, every time.

It had me going too skier, as much as I hate to admit lol. Now heads back out of the clouds and just going to follow this casually. No reason to live run to run for the difference of 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 lol.

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Doesn't it bother you, though, that the GFS has been flopping around this much? 

 

Of course (though it's really only been flopping around recently). But it also bothers me that the Canadian/UKMET have been consistent. And on the other hand, it encourages me that the Euro has been so consistent.

 

It's an interesting storm... the models keyed in on the idea of a storm more than 7 days out, and have fallen into two camps pretty much ever since. And the camps are not really what I'm used to seeing, with the GFS (previously) being in the same camp as the Euro, and the Canadian/UKMET in agreement. As always, there's a good amount of guesswork, and I'm just going by gut so far. So I'm definitely not resigned to the idea that south is definitely right... it's just a feeling.

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It had me going too skier, as much as I hate to admit lol. Now heads back out of the clouds and just going to follow this casually. No reason to live run to run for the difference of 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 lol.

Could this be south? Sure. But right now you're calling heads on a coin flip, and you can't say for sure that this is between 2-4 and 3-6. You've cultivated an image here that's not exactly the best. This stuff is why. 

 

Of course (though it's really only been flopping around recently). But it also bothers me that the Canadian/UKMET have been consistent. And on the other hand, it encourages me that the Euro has been so consistent.

 

It's an interesting storm... the models keyed in on the idea of a storm more than 7 days out, and have fallen into two camps pretty much ever since. And the camps are not really what I'm used to seeing, with the GFS (previously) being in the same camp as the Euro, and the Canadian/UKMET in agreement. As always, there's a good amount of guesswork, and I'm just going by gut so far. So I'm definitely not resigned to the idea that south is definitely right... it's just a feeling.

 

Right...I think this is a reasonable approach. 

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I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain.

And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else.

 

I say there is near a 0% chance of getting 1" of rain. 

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I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain.

And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else.

Won't we all. I know I will. 

 

So when does the CMC and UKMET come out? 

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I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain.

And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else.

 

 

Won't we all. I know I will. 

 

So when does the CMC and UKMET come out? 

yes, most of us will, the difference is, the rest of us won't go into A-fib every other run , lmao

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If we get a shift that far north inside 60hrs then these models truly suck. 

 

Eric Horst thinks 4-8" of snow with some sleet and zr is the most likely scenario for Lancaster, but it's just a preliminary guess as he's still very unsure and won't make any actual forecasts till tomorrow.

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