Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 18z NAM took a big step back and is now drier than the 12z Euro. Just a couple tenths of QPF for most of interior NJ and the lower HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 New NAM now shows 0.25" MMU to near 0.50" NYC. Significant cut-back....maybe just a blip, but we will see if the RGEM follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Compared to 12z, the best VVs go further south on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The ides of march will give us one more snowgasm to top it off to make a memorable winter season at 40 degrees N. This system progged for tommorrow probably will not be robust and raise any skirts.The warmup actually looks appealing at this point to ease my ach'in bones.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 the 12z nam was overdone. duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Upton going with 2"-4"/3"-5" and advisory for most of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Maps have 2-4 for us point and click even slightly better.... 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Very surprised to be in an advisory. Lets see if the cold water temps play a factor. Any time I see se winds it screams rain right along the south shore. That feb 08 storm did produce right to the beach though so it is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Gosh ya know.... while I'm losing hope for the south shore of LI for any significant snowfall. I am looking at this setup and half beginning to wonder what the chances of some isolated TS activity may be. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=757&sounding.y=262 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=CAPE&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false While the signal is obviously not strong, I do see some an unstable low/mid level in there according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM even colder this run now showing NYC never going to rain and parts of LI north shore never even going to a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Gosh ya know.... while I'm losing hope for the south shore of LI for any significant snowfall. I am looking at this setup and half beginning to wonder what the chances of some isolated TS activity may be. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=757&sounding.y=262 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=CAPE&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false While the signal is obviously not strong, I do see some an unstable low/mid level in there according to the NAM. The 12z spc WRF sure had a convective look to the sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Anyone have RGEM precip/snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Anyone have RGEM precip/snow totals? Significantly cutback from 12z, KNYC has a little more rain and less snow. 18z Snow: 18z Rain total: Here was 12z snow for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Gosh ya know.... while I'm losing hope for the south shore of LI for any significant snowfall. I am looking at this setup and half beginning to wonder what the chances of some isolated TS activity may be. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=757&sounding.y=262 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=CAPE&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=21¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false While the signal is obviously not strong, I do see some an unstable low/mid level in there according to the NAM. If we can see moderate to heavy precip rates Long Island will see slightly more snow accumulations. The 4 km nam shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The meteogram agrees on less snow, but actually has less rain than the 12z run. Just seems to be less precip overall. Significantly cutback from 12z, KNYC has a little more rain and less snow. 18z Snow: 18z Rain total: Here was 12z snow for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 (rgem) Significantly cutback from 12z, KNYC has a little more rain and less snow. fwiw, i think snowgoose recently made the comment that the rgem can have inconsistent off hour runs. if it wasnt snowgoose.... it was some other met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Whats the GFS doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Chicago is seeing thundersnow now. Also the band ahead of the low has thunder too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Whats the GFS doing? Less than .2" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If we can see moderate to heavy precip rates Long Island will see slightly more snow accumulations. The 4 km nam shows this. Agree on this, I'm less hopeful than others on the south shore though. Snow/mix/rain whatever it may be on south shore, there are signs pointing to possible thunderstorm/snow activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Whats the GFS doing? Dry... as it has been. Again to me this has always been a 1-3" snowfall for most of NJ from TTN north save for the NW sections which could see a little more(though not if models keep cutting back on QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 fwiw, i think snowgoose recently made the comment that the rgem can have inconsistent off hour runs. if it wasnt snowgoose.... it was some other met. Yup, it was Snowgoose. RGEM has been doing this for the past few storms. Ramp up, then down, then back up. Just very back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Agree on this, I'm less hopeful than others on the south shore though. Snow/mix/rain whatever it may be on south shore, there are signs pointing to possible thunderstorm/snow activity. I still think Long Island will be in a 1-3 inch range. North shore closer to 3 inches with the south shore and east end in the 1-2 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Whats the GFS doing? Ruining our hopes and dreams, I'd say. I know radar and lightning products look impressive out west at the moment, but it's important to keep in mind most of that energy will transfer to the coast. Broadly speaking, we're slated to find ourselves caught in the deadzone between the intense but weakening primary s/w and the growing surface cyclone offshore. Most models have a quasi-commahead feature associated with the deepening surface low, but it gets going too late for most here. I don't think anybody in the area exceeds 3", unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Dry... as it has been. Again to me this has always been a 1-3" snowfall for most of NJ from TTN north save for the NW sections which could see a little more(though not if models keep cutting back on QPF). For me nothing a loft has changed. All the levels in the column are cold enough for snow. The difference in snow amounts have been run to run continuity. ( or lack there of ). The wetter models will print out more frozen the Weaker QPF field more liquid. So if . 25 falls you will go over very easily at the coast. But if . 50 falls I think its pretty much 2 to 4. I like the wetter solution just because of some of the convection I see off to my west. Not typical behavior from a run of the mill clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As usual is going to come down to the HRRR this year...no point in trying to fight it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 28/-2 here in Dobbs Ferry...NWS has rain mixing in here tomorrow with a high of 36F, but not sure we go over that easily...850s are plenty cold, in the -5C range, and we have lots of room for evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What time should we start using the HRRR and RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What time should we start using the HRRR and RAP? RAP is out now. A general 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ruining our hopes and dreams, I'd say. I know radar and lightning products look impressive out west at the moment, but it's important to keep in mind most of that energy will transfer to the coast. Broadly speaking, we're slated to find ourselves caught in the deadzone between the intense but weakening primary s/w and the growing surface cyclone offshore. Most models have a quasi-commahead feature associated with the deepening surface low, but it gets going too late for most here. I don't think anybody in the area exceeds 3", unfortunately. You can see that demonstrated pretty clearly on the RAP which weakens that line as it hits Western NY and PA in the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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