user13 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RAP is out now. A general 1-2. Way to early... At least another 5- 6 hours (for our area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RAP has N NJ and NYC dry slotted with the developing precip along the south Jersey coast and then off shore and headed toward Eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I still think Long Island will be in a 1-3 inch range. North shore closer to 3 inches with the south shore and east end in the 1-2 inch range. Yea that's where I've been all along lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This storm Is not looking too promising to be anything more than a nuisance tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I still think Long Island will be in a 1-3 inch range. North shore closer to 3 inches with the south shore and east end in the 1-2 inch range. I agree. The heavier the snow comes in the better, although the warm air will be kept at bay for only so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I agree. The heavier the snow comes in the better, although the warm air will be kept at bay for only so long. looks to me like the precip cuts off before the warm air gets in for most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The furthest reaches of the RAP and HRRR (both 21z runs) are extremely underwhelming in terms of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like the NAM will cut back more for 00z based on Hi-Res models so far this evening.. we will see. RAP looks pedestrian so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nothing has changed with this setup in days. The best dynamics will skip over inland areas as the coastal takes over. Should amount to 1-3 or 2-4" in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 To be honest, aside from the NAM's 12z run which was pretty exciting, this storm has looked like nothing more than a 1-3 incher, IF that. To me it looks like An inch or two Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I agree. The heavier the snow comes in the better, although the warm air will be kept at bay for only so long. Esp. with the south winds. That's what's holding me back from increasing the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The furthest reaches of the RAP and HRRR (both 21z runs) are extremely underwhelming in terms of precip. yea,,,I think this is looking more like a 1-3" event area wide. looks promising down the road tho. cant believe how action packed this winter has been up and down the coast. seems like there's at least a light to moderate even every week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would give the CRAS more weight than the long range RAP. It's strong zone is 12 hours or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would give the CRAS more weight than the long range RAP. It's strong zone is 12 hours or less. Yep, its like looking at the gfs 120+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would give the CRAS more weight than the long range RAP. It's strong zone is 12 hours or less. The point is that it illustrates—even if to an extreme—what most models have trended toward today, or at least confirmed: a quick-moving, moisture-starved impulse. If the overall progression of the system were a complete mystery, I agree that placing stock in the 18 hr RAP would be inadvisable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Both RAP and HRRR tend to fluctuate a lot run to run and it's still a bit early for them. I'd be more intrigued later on tonight with what they show in terms of the setup and transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If anyone is expecting surprises on the positive side I think they will be disappointed. While it wants to snow here this winter and it will i think there wil be allot of under 2"s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 3-6 the NWS put up earlier today looks like it will have hard time verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The 3-6 the NWS put up earlier today looks like it will have hard time verifying. Yeah they discounted the NAM in their discussion yet they used it's output for their forecast. It would be interesting to know their rationale. I have a really hard time believing that their will be 6" totals from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 The 3-6 the NWS put up earlier today looks like it will have hard time verifying. Again the NWS has been doing a great job this winter generally better than the TV& radio mets, I agree with then again. They were right with the storm last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Again the NWS has been doing a great job this winter generally better than the TV& radio mets, I agree with then again. They were right with the storm last week.[/quoteAgreed. Also, it wouldn't take too much of an increase in qpf to put is in the 3-6" range (technically even if we end up with 3" in most areas, that would be 3-6") Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Check out the radar in W PA, that looks like one helluva burst for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Check out the radar in W PA, that looks like one helluva burst for them. Think this is looking less and less impressive in the PHL area with this one... looks like you can clearly see one piece of energy will pass to our north and another to our south leaving most of SEPA well with no big deal... shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HRRR backing off on precip significantly, bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HRRR backing off on precip significantly, bone dry Its still way out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 There is a banter thread. Please use it if you are posting irrelevant information. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41911-winter-2013-2014-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The NAM might possibly go from 0.75"+ qpf on it's 12z run, to less than 0.25" qpf on it's 00z run.....all within 30 hours of the event Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The NAM might possibly go from 0.75"+ qpf on it's 12z run, to less than 0.25" qpf on it's 00z run.....all within 30 hours of the event Sent from my iPhone Well it looks like it just did... Wow LOL....can you say dynamics just go POOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 4km NAM dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Nam looks like 1 to 2 inches. Just enough to get the salt trucks out on the roads. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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