40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Probably doing same thing as its mentally challenged American cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That is a great 700mb look to..south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Having trouble getting that final nudge west here at 00z....SREFs were ridiculous but we have stalled on the first 2 models of the 00z run...NAM came a pinch west, so I guess not a total flat line. Yeah but the mslp came west so I can't figure out why the qpf didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That is a great 700mb look to..south of SNE. Yeah the h7 and h5 positions seem perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah the h7 and h5 positions seem perfect. It might be trying to hint at a tight QPF distribution too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah but the mslp came west so I can't figure out why the qpf didn't. It is all about the mid-level center...we want it to tighten the circulation up and not be diffuse and extended out to eh northwest...then you end up with a lack of inflow off the Atlantic...we need to rip it from the east. When you have it elongated off to the northwest, picture the wind barbs going around it...when they come up from the southeast they sort of slow down and go more south to north near the top of the H7 low and then back down south...we want to tighen that up so they rip more from the ESE. We're close, but you can see on the 700 charts that the NAM and especially the RGEM are not quite at that level of the bigger solutions. Thankfully the Euro was pretty close at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Probably doing same thing as its mentally challenged American cousin. Until i see it, I have to decipher the riddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah the forcing from this at first is just frontal features and not a CCB. Seems like that is what the RGEM is doing. If you look at the NAM and GFS..look at 700mb and 850mb and look at those back bent features. Having those features allows for super lift near and just west of those lows, but usually it does not extend far west. The GFS got an awesome comma head going and the euro did too but not like 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It is all about the mid-level center...we want it to tighten the circulation up and not be diffuse and extended out to eh northwest...then you end up with a lack of inflow off the Atlantic...we need to rip it from the east. When you have it elongated off to the northwest, picture the wind barbs going around it...when they come up from the southeast they sort of slow down and go more south to north near the top of the H7 low and then back down south...we want to tighen that up so they rip more from the ESE. We're close, but you can see on the 700 charts that the NAM and especially the RGEM are not quite at that level of the bigger solutions. Thankfully the Euro was pretty close at 12z. I dunno Will..the nam had a pretty nice h7 depiction to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 I dunno Will..the nam had a pretty nice h7 depiction to me. NAM was great for SE MA and probably even BOS...but not much west of BOS, it takes just a shade too long for west of BOS on this run. Euro would probably argue for more precip into 128-495 belts than it shows. RGEM was the weakest of them with the 700 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What weenie models those NMM/ARW models are..lol. Epic comedic solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What weenie models those NMM/ARW models are..lol. Epic comedic solutions.RPM up to any foolishness tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well we're done with the dregs and the almost credible cmc RGEM. Gfs is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I would hit the RGEM solution, why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It kind if sucks that uncle will be useless because the 30-36 hour qpf panel won't be seen for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 RPM up to any foolishness tonight? It actually showed not even warning criteria anywhere...including the Cape. Only far downeast Maine. Can't take it as credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RPM up to any foolishness tonight? Yep..lol..altough after totally whiffing earlier today it is coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gfs ala Tom petty..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It actually showed not even warning criteria anywhere...including the Cape. Only far downeast Maine. Can't take it as credible.that's why Noyes is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Doesn't appear to want to back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 It kind if sucks that uncle will be useless because the 30-36 hour qpf panel won't be seen for a long time. Yeah we won't see the total, but we'll know if its a big hit based on the 24h panel. Much of E MA/RI should already have at least 6h totals in the 0.25" range if its a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Quite the trend on gfs - over the past 24 hours, qpf for AUG has climbed step by step from about 0.2" to over 1". Even RUM now shows enough for marginal WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Right over the bench or gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS finally stopped the trend..back SE a bit on this run but still a big hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nuke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS tic SE of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 A hair SE and you can see why...a bit less enthusiastic with phasing the s/w in NY state. This solution makes more sense and kind of what we thought might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It does smoke BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It does smoke BOS. Congrats--a great winter for Beantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Qpf through 30: 0.5 down through western ct up well west of ORH 0.75 me to ginxy 1.0 scooter se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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