Rjay Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A rain squall just passed through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just had some lightning/thunder in Lyndhurst with some freezing rain 31.5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Has jumped around way too much for my liking. We'll see what the new HRRR shows. I know you are still optimistic but I think that band sitting over Allentown/Reading/Lancaster was supposed to the that band that sat over us on the HRR. I think both our areas got suckered in by bad short term hi res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thunder with heavy rain in Woodside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can someone post the HRRR and RAP please? thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Meteorologist Mike Favetta just posted that NYC will get 3-6" but may be more that. They are going off old NAM/HRRR data. Seems like 1-3" will be what happens now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Has jumped around way too much for my liking. We'll see what the new HRRR shows. Its going nuts in the Harrisburg Allentown area thru the 1st 6 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 00z NAM is 0.75" plus west of the city and close to 1.00" points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy rain witha temp of 33 in western Nassau!!!! This sucks!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I know you are still optimistic but I think that band sitting over Allentown/Reading/Lancaster was supposed to the that band that sat over us on the HRR. I think both our areas got suckered in by bad short term hi res models. There will definitely be a pivot east over time so this won't be a lost cause completely. People who believed the ridiculous totals and images from the short term models are going to get a lesson in meteorology over modelology tonight. I can't stress enough how important the tracks of the mid level centers are for snow in this scenario. It's not surprising where the banding is setting up...just northwest of them during the development of the cyclone is classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 New RAP honestly looks a little too far west. The 500mb low is still cruising NE toward Ocean City. I get that it will sooner or later move north, but it had better start doing that real soon in order to have the radar be that focused west. It also looks like the precip may enhance as it gets here (the back part of it), since the 500mb low is expected to open up and then close again, and 700mb low will be closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sharp cutoff on the NAM from the GWB and points east. City is still 0.50" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 00z NAM is 0.75" plus west of the city and close to 1.00" points north. lol i just picked up .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nothing but rain in Staten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 00z NAM is 0.75" plus west of the city and close to 1.00" points north. If you notice, though, the NAM starts us accumulating as snow right now through the first 3 hours, which is obviously wrong. Taking that into account, it's 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy rain witha temp of 33 in western Nassau!!!! This sucks!!!!! This was always expected with this part of it. The ridiculous models with snow on the back end of this earlier today are just going to be wrong most likely. I think we get 2-4" in Nassau, maybe 1-3" in much of Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy freezing rain lightning and thunder rahway. Getting terrified of how much ZR might actually fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Has jumped around way too much for my liking. We'll see what the new HRRR shows. completely agree - should have put that in the FWIW column... theyve seemed to be slightly more in step with a further west EPA/NWNJ/HV jackpot if you will but thats not to say they will be the only ones affected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There will definitely be a pivot east over time so this won't be a lost cause completely. People who believed the ridiculous totals and images from the short term models are going to get a lesson in meteorology over modelology tonight. I can't stress enough how important the tracks of the mid level centers are for snow in this scenario. It's not surprising where the banding is setting up...just northwest of them during the development of the cyclone is classic. Exactly.... who in the world thought that it would snow heavy east of a pretty much vertical stack of 700/850 lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The nam transitions all of nj to snow by 10pm....with most of n nj receiving 0.5"+ AFTER that point. Drops off quickly east of the city though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can someone post the HRRR and RAP please? thank you. Use this for the RAP (click on the RAP and choose most recent run) http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 With everything else going on I just want point on my current pressure in massapequa is 981mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy sleet here with flakes mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 New HRRR not nearly as impressive...could've seen this coming though with the mid level centers which I spoke about a few hours ago. Yeah figures, the CCB was always a wildcard and they don't usually work out over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There will definitely be a pivot east over time so this won't be a lost cause completely. People who believed the ridiculous totals and images from the short term models are going to get a lesson in meteorology over modelology tonight. I can't stress enough how important the tracks of the mid level centers are for snow in this scenario. It's not surprising where the banding is setting up...just northwest of them during the development of the cyclone is classic. I did believe we would see something like 4-6" from the pivot. Not those insane QPF and snow totals. You may get what we got Boxing Day 02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Exactly.... who in the world thought that it would snow heavy east of a pretty much vertical stack of 700/850 lows? The issue though is that the short term mesoscale models were wrong with where the frontogenesis would set up. I noted this a few hours ago because they were off already in VA/DC and that was a bad sign. This will probably be the first real bust of the year for the HRRR as the banding it had over ABE was 25-50 miles east a few runs ago. I still think a few inches will fall, but the 6+ amounts ain't happening unless you're in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The kicker is almost on top of this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The area of snow near Balt/DC is definitely pivoting east now, and looks to be enhancing somewhat. No one should panic around NYC/western LI, but no one should expect more than 3-4" out of this. The higher totals are going to be west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asw Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 More multiple lightning flashes in Tenafly lighting up the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 4K NAM looks great and shows the temperature profiles crashing towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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