SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SREFs were quite suggestive of a westward lean. They were pretty spot on with yesterday's events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's been moving west it's run but obviously there's a limit to how west it'll move given how close we are. I don't know if there'll be too much if any further movement by the 0z runs so 2-4" looks good around here, maybe 4-6" around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 if this west trend sticks boston is going to have BL issues I didn't realize til second look that most of LI is above 0c at 850 til 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Not to get on anyone's nerves, but I won't be able to follow the models tonight and tomorrow. What is the general timing on the RGEM and GFS? I didn't see anyone posting the hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I can't remember the last time that the GFS beat the Euro with a really amplified pattern with a bombing out low. So I am not sure what the GFS is seeing that the other models aren't. But the 0z runs tonight should really be telling. I'm thinking (weenie-ing, really) that maybe the NW trend all winter last minute with every storm, rapid development of the upper features, and possible overdevelopment of the low over the convective features out over the Gulf Stream rather than closer in could be reasons to keep hope alive. But yeah, I would have to think the GFS is likely overdone here. But we all thought two days before the storm yesterday that the tracks over Long Island were overdone, and even the day of the storm the features developed notably west of where they were supposed to... The stakes here are huge-I guess this GFS run is one extreme and the dry as a bone NAM the other. An RGEM solution with a few inches or so seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's the gfs looking like for coastal Monmouth? 3-6" 2-4" opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's the gfs looking like for coastal Monmouth? 3-6" 2-4" opinions Quit with the IMBY questions all the time, follow the discussion and look at the output for yourself. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/avneastloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The GFS at 24 hours should have the best banding starting to occur from just E of TTN stretching up thru and past NYC into SNY with the best returns just near Sandy Hook according to maturing 850 and 700mb about to close off. (remember best snows 75-100 miles NW of 850 mb low into the nice RH field. Exactly what happened yesterday when the 850 came further west, the snows went further west. At 27 hours that band would push back into WNJ and stretch into NWnj and into NNJ up into SNY still with insane banding starting to develop over SNE under the best lift. The 700mb closes off over coastal CNJ and the 850 is just off the coast. This to me would put a dry slot almost in exactly the same area as yesterday as WNJ into NWnj gets into good stuff. This then all begins to translate Ewrd thru 30 hours. This kind of scenario COULD produce appreciably more precip then some are thinking with the tracks/development of these mid level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's been moving west it's run but obviously there's a limit to how west it'll move given how close we are. I don't know if there'll be too much if any further movement by the 0z runs so 2-4" looks good around here, maybe 4-6" around the city. It's been moving west it's run but obviously there's a limit to how west it'll move given how close we are. I don't know if there'll be too much if any further movement by the 0z runs so 2-4" looks good around here, maybe 4-6" around the city. Look what happened yesterday, right through nowcasting/immediate future the low continued to move west of ALL guidance, this includes the mid level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I can't remember the last time that the GFS beat the Euro in a really amplified pattern with a bombing out low. So I am not sure what the GFS is seeing that the other models aren't. But the 0z runs tonight should really be telling. The GFS wins have generally been weaker systems that overperformed. it's been good on northern stream systems this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm thinking (weenie-ing, really) that maybe the NW trend all winter last minute with every storm, rapid development of the upper features, and possible overdevelopment of the low over the convective features out over the Gulf Stream rather than closer in could be reasons to keep hope alive. But yeah, I would have to think the GFS is likely overdone here. But we all thought two days before the storm yesterday that the tracks over Long Island were overdone, and even the day of the storm the features developed notably west of where they were supposed to... The stakes here are huge-I guess this GFS run is one extreme and the dry as a bone NAM the other. An RGEM solution with a few inches or so seems more likely. This would be the biggest coup for the GFS since that run for boxing day that was written off as initialization errors. Otherwise, how often is the GFS west of all the other guidance as it is usually too far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This would be the biggest coup for the GFS since that run for boxing day that was written off as initialization errors. Lol idn about that. The gfs has had its moments earlier this winter where it nailed a few events pretty early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 We took a beating with the snow pack yesterday and today, so a few inches will bring back that look; what a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I will say, we will need some help from the upper level features if we are going to receive much snow for the area. The initial overrunning which the radar will show early on as being nice snow will move NW of us and die out, at which point we will really be left with the fate of the developing coastal low and the strength of the upper level features. If those are too progressive or not as strong as depicted here, there won't be much of a mechanism to generate snow. I think the RGEM is the last model to really show that initial overrunning kind of snow lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 And one major difference between the GFS and some of these other solutions-there are no big convective blobs out over the Gulf Stream on the GFS. That forces the more consolidated low center further west. Hopefully tonight we will learn if this is right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This would be the biggest coup for the GFS since that run for boxing day that was written off as initialization errors. Otherwise, how often is the GFS west of all the other guidance as it is usually too far east? Yea very true 0z is looking very interesting....I cant remember a time I have been so interested in so many consecutive models runs...this has been going on for 3 weeks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WOWHere is the 18z GFS. Look how close it is to a big storm for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I will say, we will need some help from the upper level features if we are going to receive much snow for the area. The initial overrunning which the radar will show early on as being nice snow will move NW of us and die out, at which point we will really be left with the fate of the developing coastal low and the strength of the upper level features. If those are too progressive or not as strong as depicted here, there won't be much of a mechanism to generate snow. I think the RGEM is the last model to really show that initial overrunning kind of snow lasting. This^ I'm trying not to pay much attention to the QPF fields right now. Pay attention to the mid level features and they will guide you to where the best snows will setup. See my post above for more analysis RE: mid level features. Just like yesterday, doesn't matter what the models show as far as qpf, follow the mid levels and you can figure out the precip without much/any help from the model. Following qpf so closely is modelology, placing it according to mid level synoptics is meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WOW Here is the 18z GFS. Look how close it is to a big storm for our area. GEFS will be interesting to see how much of a spread they have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 This^ I'm trying not to pay much attention to the QPF fields right now. Pay attention to the mid level features and they will guide you to where the best snows will setup. See my post above for more analysis RE: mid level features. Just like yesterday, doesn't matter what the models show as far as qpf, follow the mid levels and you can figure out the precip without much/any help from the model. Following qpf so closely is modelology, placing it according to mid level synoptics is meteorology. I was thinking the same as your prior post that if the GFS is right on the 700 and 850 lows it's too far east on the snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The GFS at 24 hours should have the best banding starting to occur from just E of TTN stretching up thru and past NYC into SNY with the best returns just near Sandy Hook according to maturing 850 and 700mb about to close off. (remember best snows 75-100 miles NW of 850 mb low into the nice RH field. Exactly what happened yesterday when the 850 came further west, the snows went further west. At 27 hours that band would push back into WNJ and stretch into NWnj and into NNJ up into SNY still with insane banding starting to develop over SNE under the best lift. The 700mb closes off over coastal CNJ and the 850 is just off the coast. This to me would put a dry slot almost in exactly the same area as yesterday as WNJ into NWnj gets into good stuff. This then all begins to translate Ewrd thru 30 hours. This kind of scenario COULD produce appreciably more precip then some are thinking with the tracks/development of these mid level features. Think the orientation tomorrow is different . inside OBX and a B line for the BM . Yesterday at 700 - 850 it was due N for a while . Think the best forcing is east this time . IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I was thinking the same as your prior post that if the GFS is right on the 700 and 850 lows it's too far east on the snows For some reason the models have seemed to been struggling lately on where to place the best snows in regards to mid level features. Not exactly sure what is causing this, but it's the same situation as yesterday where the best stuff went further n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This shortwave is really digging to our west and south: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Think the orientation tomorrow is different . inside OBX and a B line for the BM . Yesterday at 700 - 850 it was due N for a while . Think the best forcing is east this time . IMO I agree with this, but Im also seeing 2 distinct max areas. The best forcing is clearly NE stretching into NE ( that would be the strong banding I was alluding to stretching NE from NYC but I think the highest total snowfall accums don't stretch in a SW to NE line, I think it goes almost in a crescent moon shape from SNE back down into SNY and NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This shortwave is really digging to our west and south: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif What a beautiful image, our beast of a storm yesterday departing to the NE in an absolutely classic WV sig. and a strong vort digging right on its heels. Looks to me like the ridge out west is quite pumped and I think that is really aiding. So eventually the kicker will push everything east but for right now it is pretty much bearing down behind our vort and pushing it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 After a "mild" sunny day, clouds now beginning to build back in from the S and W, didn't take long did it lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 In this storm GFS spells Good for Snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What a beautiful image, our beast of a storm yesterday departing to the NE in an absolutely classic WV sig. and a strong vort digging right on its heels. Looks to me like the ridge out west is quite pumped and I think that is really aiding. So eventually the kicker will push everything east but for right now it is pretty much bearing down behind our vort and pushing it south. I was just going to say what a monster storm...its influence extends from Cuba to Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What a beautiful image, our beast of a storm yesterday departing to the NE in an absolutely classic WV sig. and a strong vort digging right on its heels. Looks to me like the ridge out west is quite pumped and I think that is really aiding. So eventually the kicker will push everything east but for right now it is pretty much bearing down behind our vort and pushing it south. The progressiveness of it is what could really be a concern... if only something can slow it down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I agree with this, but Im also seeing 2 distinct max areas. The best forcing is clearly NE stretching into NE ( that would be the strong banding I was alluding to stretching NE from NYC but I think the highest total snowfall accums don't stretch in a SW to NE line, I think it goes almost in a crescent moon shape from SNE back down into SNY and NW NJYes Imo the northern max may just snow longer But the upward motion to the east prob maxes out accumulations I agree the rip off zone may b close to last nite. It just bulges from the south not the east like last nite. Let's hope it gets to the delmarva. Philly to nyc has been a favored corridor out of the southern branch ths year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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