user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It had me getting 12 plus inches from the ccb just 2 to 3 hours before it hit. ... I got 3Because everyone was looking at and posting snow maps. If you looked at the 850s they were way to warm for any snow. I posted this in the other topic last night about how accurate they were. (This was 18z) Look at these pics. No other model had 1" qpf over nj nyc li ct and it was all supposed to be rain even though the snow maps were showing snow. It had that band to a T even down to the lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It showed me (Brooklyn) with over 1" of liquid and it wasn't far off. Temps sucked but QPF forecast wasn't off Ask nyc How is that 8 to 12 plus inches for them it was showing a few hours before from theccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Because everyone was looking at the snow maps. If you looked at the 850s they were way to warm for any snow. I posted this in the other form last night about how accurate that were. Look at these pics. No other model had 1" qpf over nj nyc li and it was all supposed to be rain even though the snow maps were showing snow. It had that band to a T even down to the lightning. What I think happened was it was counting what it thought would be sleet (due to the 925mb temps) as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Exactly. What did Abe report from that ccb btw... Do you happen to know? Not sure , I would just be guessing ( I think 15 ish ) Im shocked Atownwx didn't check in . He`s been waiting for this back there . Cant complain the winters been great , just hate missing 6- 10 in 3 hours as its going off 75 miles to you`re west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It had me getting 12 plus inches from the ccb just 2 to 3 hours before it hit. ... I got 3 The HRRR had the band correct it was just too far east. Keep that in mind when we start looking at the hourly HRRR. It may need to be corrected 20-25 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It showed me (Brooklyn) with over 1" of liquid and it wasn't far off. Temps sucked but QPF forecast wasn't off I know. It was spot on. I was having some fun at the hrrs expense. All people were posting were the snow maps last night. They are clown maps. Then we had a bunch of bridge jumpers that thought it was going to be all rain. It was painfully obvious it wouldn't start as snow or even sleet for that matter (not a deep enough cold pool to refreeze it in a thunderstorm lol) but it was also just as obvious that it would change over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What I think happened was it was counting what it thought would be sleet (due to the 925mb temps) as snow. Yep exactly or even hail which I got at a few points in that band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Btw... wwa just hoisted here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Not sure , I would just be guessing ( I think 15 ish ) Im shocked Atownwx didn't check in . He`s been waiting for this back there . Cant complain the winters been great , just hate missing 6- 10 in 3 hours as its going off 75 miles to you`re west Exactly. I'm right by the de River and just missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I know. It was spot on. I was having some fun at the hrrs expense. All people were posting were the snow maps last night. They are clown maps. Then we had a bunch of bridge jumpers that thought it was going to be all rain. It was painfully obvious it wouldn't start as snow or even sleet for that matter (not a deep enough cold pool to refreeze it in a thunderstorm lol) but it was also just as obvious that it would change over to snow. lol I know I hate snow maps lol They should be banded. They are all standardized 10:1, the only ones that seem decent are the SREFs it accounts for ratios it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Exactly. What did Abe report from that ccb btw... Do you happen to know? They finished with 19.2" and had 13.6 as of yesterday afternoon so looks like only around 5.5 for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Upton 2-4" everywhere except 4-6 far east end LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Upton 2-4" everywhere except 4-6 far east end LI Yea thast a good call right now...let see what the gfs shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea thast a good call right now...let see what the gfs shows Wwa for my area general up to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Mt. Holly 2-4" nw nj but 1-2" along and either direction of I-95 and less than an inch near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 The RGEM continues to look better than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I heard in the NE forum the 18z RGEM went west, is that true with the QPF down here as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I heard in the NE forum the 18z RGEM went west, is that true with the QPF down here as well? Yes. Looks wetter than the 12z run. Nothing like the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 I heard in the NE forum the 18z RGEM went west, is that true with the QPF down here as well? It didn't go well west so much with QPF from the coastal as much as it seems to keep the band of snow associated with the initial WAA together and swing it across and merge it with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 18z RGEM and some other models have arc-band forming around 700mb low. Which is much further west than the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The RGEM continues to look better than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 18z RGEM and some other models have arc-band forming around 700mb low. Which is much further west than the surface low. That's what we will probably need to get the 3 inch or so amounts to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The trend is NW all winter, why should we not believe the models, especially last night which the 850mb low was further west than anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z RGEM is a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NYC jackpot? More than almost all of EMA? Hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NYC jackpot? More than almost all of EMA? Hmmmmmm Yea that doesnt make any sense. It stiffs the cape giving NYC as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z RGEM is a solid hit That's 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS has a negative tilt at hour 24. This might show a weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea thast a good call right now...let see what the gfs shows No actually they have 3 zones NYC including queens is 1-3 , wester LI is 2-4 , eastern is in W.S.W for 3-5 with potential of 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is really close to the coast. Inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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