JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 one hundred percent agree with this - not what people want to hear but in these situations much of nj/nyc/ and often times philly get jumped with these miller b's --- I think this is a 1-3 for much of the area with maybe 2-4 out eastern end of LI (much more for our friends in new england) I respectfully disagree. .. often times it's cpa as the Arctic Clipper gives way to a coastal low. The precip jumps from Western pa to enhanced costal bands West of the De River as the incoming energy from pa meets the lift provided from the coastal which pushes back westward enhancing it. Has it screwed nj before? Sure but to me it's much more often cpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The Nam doesn't even look good in SNE looks like a big convective feedback issue looking at the precip between the gfs and Nam. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_039_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well it ticked west but the precip shield is still ugly It seems to be getting a little better though. There are 4 SREF members that absolutely blow this up to the point where most of LI has 0.75" or greater liquid. Not saying it will happen of course but I think there's still room to shift this west some. At least to the point where we get some help from the upper air lows coming by for some snow and not the horrendous dry slot the NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I respectfully disagree. .. often times it's cpa as the Arctic Clipper gives way to a coastal low. The precip jumps from Western pa to enhanced costal bands West of the De River as the incoming energy from pa meets the lift provided from the coastal which pushes back westward enhancing it. Has it screwed nj before? Sure but to me it's much more often cpa. I know from bad experience living there how often Central PA gets screwed with Miller B events. Not their type of storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I know from bad experience living there how often Central PA gets screwed with Miller B events. Not their type of storm at all. Yup the dynamics always seem to just give out over that area. Will that happen here? Not sure but I'd go with climatology right now and let the models fall where they may. 2 to 4 from de River east and more as you had ne from nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It seems to be getting a little better though. There are 4 SREF members that absolutely blow this up to the point where most of LI has 0.75" or greater liquid. Not saying it will happen of course but I think there's still room to shift this west some. At least to the point where we get some help from the upper air lows coming by for some snow and not the horrendous dry slot the NAM has. Trying so hard to stay optimistic about this one, but I'm just not feeling it for some reason. Just has the feel of a so-close-yet-so-far scenario for us Islanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The Nam doesn't even look good in SNE looks like a big convective feedback issue looking at the precip between the gfs and Nam. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_039_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Yea I noticed some of that with the SLP...it first had it off cape may but then put the slp over the blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The Nam doesn't even look good in SNE looks like a big convective feedback issue looking at the precip between the gfs and Nam. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_039_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M The nam had serious convective feedback issues with yesterday's storm as well. However. .. For the most part handled the dynamics much better (understatement) than the gfs. This one also will come down to dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 4k NAM is about 0.05" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The trough is just too progressive on the Nam and digs too far south. A negatively tilted trough doesn't help you if it is shifting east and out to sea due to a kicker behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The nam had serious convective feedback issues with yesterday's storm as well. However. .. For the most part handled the dynamics much better (understatement) than the gfs. This one also will come down to dynamics. I think yesterdays storm deff favored the nam with it being a miller A and how convective it was but with this one I am liking the GFS's handling a bit better. I think this 18z is a big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The trough is just too progressive on the Nam and digs too far south. A negatively tilted trough doesn't help you if it is shifting east and out to sea due to a kicker behind it. Yep its just a little to far east...I wish it would consolidate the prcip field I have a hard time believing it will look like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Blizzard Watch issued for the cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The trough is just too progressive on the Nam and digs too far south. A negatively tilted trough doesn't help you if it is shifting east and out to sea due to a kicker behind it. Most models have considerably more precip so the Nam is basically an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Im not going to worry about a dry slot just yet . NAVGEM ,CANADIAN, RGEM ,JMA, UKMET ,GFS don't show it They are all .25 to .50 at KNYC . When you total up the guidance it leans away from it . The GFS has been very good out of the N Branch this year and I think a smart approach is look at all the guidance not the one that favors you UKMET may be closer to .20 as is the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 All the gefs members look similiar. They bring decent precip into the area, not like the Nam. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's the HRRR say? Not that it got anything right with part 2 yesterday. What are start and end times for Nassau County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's the HRRR say? Not that it got anything right with part 2 yesterday. What are start and end times for Nassau County? It was deadly again yesterday.... and it way to far out it only goes out 15 hours and should be used within 10 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's the HRRR say? Not that it got anything right with part 2 yesterday. What are start and end times for Nassau County? It says "I'm not nearly in range yet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It was deadly again yesterday.... and it way to far out it only goes out 15 hours It had me getting 12 plus inches from the ccb just 2 to 3 hours before it hit. ... I got 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How wasn't it right? What's the HRRR say? Not that it got anything right with part 2 yesterday. What are start and end times for Nassau County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 QPF was correct I believe. It had me getting 12 plus inches from the ccb just 2 to 3 hours before it hit. ... I got 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 upton's snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How wasn't it right? Ask nyc How is that 8 to 12 plus inches for them it was showing a few hours before from theccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It had me getting 12 plus inches from the ccb just 2 to 3 hours before it hit. ... I got 3 The problem is it can't be trusted for ptype during a borderline event like that. Its simulated radar was spot on just it poured rain/sleet during that part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 QPF was correct I believe. QPF was correct but mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It had me getting 12 plus inches from the ccb just 2 to 3 hours before it hit. ... I got 3 The HRRR was great part 1 . What happened was all the guidance for part 2 jumped that center out once E of the Delmarva . Once the HRRR realized it was at AC on its way to Asbury you saw the 21z jump way west . All the other high res and Globals had the same look at 12z . The Euro had .6 AT KNYC and I thought the 850`s looked fine That center came so far west , it pushed our CCB into EPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The problem is it can't be trusted for ptype during a borderline event like that. Its simulated radar was spot on just it poured rain/sleet during that part I know. In all honesty it was great. I'm just having fun at the hrrrs expense at its snowfall maps. Way to many people that's all they look at lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The HRRR was great part 1 . What happened was all the guidance for part 2 jumped that center out once E of the Delmarva . Once the HRRR realized it was at AC on its way to Asbury you saw the 21z jump way west . All the other high res and Globals had the same look at 12z . The Euro had .6 That center came so far west , it pushed our CCB into EPA Exactly. What did Abe report from that ccb btw... Do you happen to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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