jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 These kinds of negative trends always seem to occur 2 days before these large synoptic (espec Miller A) storms. Not saying things will necessarily improve by 00z or tomorrow - as perhaps the models are catching on to something - but I do recall similar trends in the past. I think if we don't see an east shift tonight at 0z, a track like the Euro is pretty likely. The relevant energy should be sampled by then and we should head toward consensus. I don't buy something ridiculous like the RGEM, but I guess a coastal hugger is possible even with the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well there's your storm. Lets hope the sampling in the Gulf can help with the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The weight on flat top roofs is going to be pretty big with previous snowpack plus front end thump to rain and back to snow for collapse potential. I wonder how warm the low levels get on the coast? If the low center comes that close and we get winds from the ocean I would have to think it warms up enough for some of the snow to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wonder how warm the low levels get on the coast? If the low center comes that close and we get winds from the ocean I would have to think it warms up enough for some of the snow to melt.We are also dealing with fleeting cold air, Canadian HP is off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Already at 1013mb. This has the potential to be a very deep system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We are also dealing with fleeting cold air, Canadian HP is off shore. We're relying on dynamics to overcome the warming mid levels for a time. If it's a 1/25/2000 like radar presentation and a quickly wrapping up and occluding low, it won't be very pretty after a few hour initial thump that would be good for maybe 4-7". The CCB behind though may be good for an additional 2-4" and the closing off low means the warm air source is also choked off, so maybe it wouldn't be so bad in terms of how much rain falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Very nice CCB signature. We'll have to wait and see later runs for the exact location of the band. USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_060.gif USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_063.gif Not escaping a change over at the coast , this storm is a monster . This is not a trend that is going to be reversed . The data ingested today clearly shows a stronger NEG tilted SW roll thru OBX resulting in a push of warmth at the mid levels at out latitude , the NAM and will catch on, The best we can hope for is a nice front end dump . dry slot like in 93 and then CCB like in 2011 . We can still get 8 to 12 at KNYC , just gona be the hard way . Prob gona have to deal with some rain or snizzle in between . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some of us wonder why the NWS is playing conservative with snowfall totals. Trust me, they know more than you do. I agree. They get paid for a reason. Following the boards is fun because you can get real time info- but NWS forecasts are usually about as good as they get IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I truly believe that as long as we have a dynamic bombing system the mid-levels aren't going to be able warm that much, especially inland, no matter how close the actual low tracks to the coast. (Assuming that the low will actually track offshore). This may not be the best news for Long Island, but just as the runs ticked east last night at 00z for the most point, they can readjust tonight. My preference is the Euro for the track and the thermal profiles of the NAM. That combination gives you the 12z GGEM. (And the most favorable outcome areawide) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wonder how warm the low levels get on the coast? If the low center comes that close and we get winds from the ocean I would have to think it warms up enough for some of the snow to melt. you are in Long Beach, yes? I lived there for a bit. You know what any wind off the Ocean, even an east wind, will do. Can't say the trends are good for us at the moment. Especially with NWS even hinting at possible flooding concerns and the GFS coming more west. NAM sort of stands alone. That's a lonely place to be if you want a snowy outlook I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We're relying on dynamics to overcome the warming mid levels for a time. If it's a 1/25/2000 like radar presentation and a quickly wrapping up and occluding low, it won't be very pretty after a few hour initial thump that would be good for maybe 4-7". The CCB behind though may be good for an additional 2-4" and the closing off low means the warm air source is also choked off, so maybe it wouldn't be so bad in terms of how much rain falls. Which translates to 6-12 . No problem..Im not greedy. Ill 'settle' for a foot and then 2 more snow chances in the following 72 hrs ( 1 of which has been said by mutiple mets to be potentially sneaky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z NAM was awesome... GFS admittedly sucked...but the NAM has been holding steadier to it's solution than the gfs...i dont get why the panic and negativity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z GFS to me looks like it's still playing catch up with regards to the dynamics on the NW side. I'm not sure what to make of the 18z RGEM other than that it tends to be over amplified at the end of its run. The fact that it's that far NW to me is a sign that this will likely end up a bit east of where it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't want to keep deleting bickering posts, "this run sucks", etc. Keep it on analysis, por favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wonder how warm the low levels get on the coast? If the low center comes that close and we get winds from the ocean I would have to think it warms up enough for some of the snow to melt. This run of the GFS gets JFK to 36-37 Late Thursday before dropping back below freezing at night. The NNE to NE surface flow keeps us cooler with most warming at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z GFS to me looks like it's still playing catch up with regards to the dynamics on the NW side. I'm not sure what to make of the 18z RGEM other than that it tends to be over amplified at the end of its run. The fact that it's that far NW to me is a sign that this will likely end up a bit east of where it shows. The RGEM is just insane and a huge west outlier, so it's hard to take with any seriousness. But the amplifying and big time deepening trend looks very real on the guidance, and we need that to either back off a little at 0z or have the kicker be more aggressive in forcing an east track. An occluding low or coastal hugger to ACY would be good for a nice thumping at the start, but the very heavy amounts would likely be west of I-287 in such a setup. An occluding low would also choke off dynamics taking place west of the storm, further cutting back big totals. Jan 25, 2000 was much more impressive over VA/NC/MD for just that reason. The closed low would be a good opportunity for a few more inches of snow though, so 4-6" up front and then 2-4" at the end with a dryslot/light rain in between isn't a horrible end game. But the 12"+ amounts wouldn't happen in all likelihood in those places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This run of the GFS gets JFK to 36-37 Late Thursday before dropping back below freezing at night. The NNE to NE surface flow keeps us cooler with most warming at 850. Hardly any snow melted when we got to 35 last Wednesday, so we could still have a very impressive snowpack after this. We just have to avoid the east winds as much as possible. I still think the GFS is too warm and not seeing the dynamics correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is the outlier as its POS ted as it comes through OBX , Look at the 500 MB on the Euro and you will see the NEG tilt . If you believe this storm is an open flat wave to OBX and not the GULF of Mexico to the GULF of Maine monster I think it is then the NAM is you`re model . That difference is where the SLP come N and how fast the easterlies bring mid level warmth to the coast . I do think we have a saving grace , if we can thump fast then get dry slotted , then snizzle in between will not wreck ur snow pack and then its how fast can we CCB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z GFS to me looks like it's still playing catch up with regards to the dynamics on the NW side. I'm not sure what to make of the 18z RGEM other than that it tends to be over amplified at the end of its run. The fact that it's that far NW to me is a sign that this will likely end up a bit east of where it shows. The exact CCB placement will be key to how much we can pick up on the backside of this. Probably wont know until we see the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z GFS to me looks like it's still playing catch up with regards to the dynamics on the NW side. I'm not sure what to make of the 18z RGEM other than that it tends to be over amplified at the end of its run. The fact that it's that far NW to me is a sign that this will likely end up a bit east of where it shows. I was worried about an even more west track a few days ago. This seems to me to be a clear inland storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hardly any snow melted when we got to 35 last Wednesday, so we could still have a very impressive snowpack after this. We just have to avoid the east winds as much as possible. I still think the GFS is too warm and not seeing the dynamics correctly. yea it didn't with Mondays storm. I want to lean towards the Nam for dynamics but I would be a lot more confident if it held a similar solution through 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM does have some crazy runs every now and then but I love it as a short range model. Will have to see if it's leading the charge on a warmer track. It seems to handle the kicker much differently as Snowgoose alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hardly any snow melted when we got to 35 last Wednesday, so we could still have a very impressive snowpack after this. We just have to avoid the east winds as much as possible. I still think the GFS is too warm and not seeing the dynamics correctly. The Euro keeps winds NE to NNE so I think most of the warming will be aloft before temps drop again at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most areas flip back to snow before ending. Yes, and when this does happen the added snowfall has been light (1-2") in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Check out the dynamic cooling the 4k nam shows over NYC...The GFS wont be able to pick something like this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes, and when this does happen the added snowfall has been light (1-2") in my experience. These are such a wildcard-we've also had great ones like Dec 25, 2002 and Jan 26, 2011. We really won't know until it happens. If the low closes off at 500mb near us, I like the odds for at least something half decent. Most models still have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 These are such a wildcard-we've also had great ones like Dec 25, 2002 and Jan 26, 2011. We really won't know until it happens. If the low closes off at 500mb near us, I like the odds for at least something half decent. Most models still have that going for us. Okay, I agree - I was living out of town during the periods of time you noted. Good luck to us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 These are such a wildcard-we've also had great ones like Dec 25, 2002 and Jan 26, 2011. We really won't know until it happens. If the low closes off at 500mb near us, I like the odds for at least something half decent. Most models still have that going for us. Just hope the wraparound doesn't line up too far west like this run of the GFS is showing. But we probably wont know those kind of details this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Check out the dynamic cooling the 4k nam shows over NYC...The GFS wont be able to pick something like this up If the mid-levels over run with warm air, dynamic cooling will not be able to overcompensate during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will say that the 4K NAM is seeing the surface freezing line moving inland even into parts of NJ, and then still keeps precip as all snow to the coast with dynamics. The one feather in its cap is that it is a short range model. But this is out there on the edge of the short range. Plus its the NAM, the model everyone likens to the Ralph Wiggam of weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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