JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Which was all I was suggesting.. That we don't take an over corrected 18z suite so serious especially over 24hr out... And your suggestion was spot on. Time to wait patiently for the 00z data tonight with all players on the field and recon data. I almost wish they would fly into the kicker like they are with the gulf stream lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The models have played this game all winter long, yes the trend has been NW, but only up until about 24-36 hours before the event starts when they correct back SE a bit. That correction SE a bit(as long as we don't come too far NW) could really help still. Too many people giving up hope when in meteorological terms we still have lots of time.I still think this can be a very nice event despite going to rain and dry slotting for a time. The front end looks very heavy and there could be surprises with the backlash- the Euro seemed very impressed by it as did the GGEM and Uk. This will still likely add nicely to the snowpack in most areas as ground temps never torch and there might not be much rain if the dry slot is almost in by then for city and coast. Really hoping though that the NW trend is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I truly think the models have over corrected in their 18z suites... U guys gotta stop getting so worked up over each run like the latest model run is what's gonna happen.. Plenty of time for change... I think the two big issues are ; 1.) The models are together forming a solution of a westward trend. It is getting closer to the event, so the data on the models is more accurate than it was 2.) As mentioned before, we have no blocking in place, high pressure is sliding off the coast of Canada, we have a low pressure system rapidly intensifying and getting very wound up, while meanwhile our kicker that would have helped keep this from being a coastal hugger seems to be moving much slower than was previously modeled. The main concern is that we would need thing to completely change on the models for the outcome to support big changes from these 18z runs. The NAM is really on it's own now, and unfortunately it has been many times before (showing 15-30" solutions 2-3 days before an event, just to cave the next day OR the next model run). Lesson learned here is that, as some have mentioned in the past couple days, without the necessary ingredients, it is VERY tough to duplicate such a great meal. Possible, but VERY tough. I think even the more knowledgeable posters here got very "amped up" over the great model runs that the idea of needing those ingredients was put on the backburner, obviously, or we would not see so many caves given one or two runs of these model suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After my weenie freak out over the 18z suite, I think I'm going to expect the worse but hope for the best. It's been a very good winter after all and anything extra is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What comes to mind is the Monday storm when the Nam and other models had the very heavy snow up in NW NJ, Eastern PA extending to NE NJ when in reality it was considerably further south by nearly 100 miles or so. So I guess anything is possible and hopefully it is an over-correction as I can't really imagine it going any further west than it is now. I'm holding firm with my statement that I believe the Euro was about the westward limit of this system with the kicker back there. Strength of that will be key too, as any ridging between the kicker and coastal as a result of the GL disturbance will be very helpful. If it winds up being a weak kicker we are left with a col point in the mid levels that could allow the coastal and associated mid level features to come closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think the two big issues are ; 1.) The models are together forming a solution of a westward trend. It is getting closer to the event, so the data on the models is more accurate than it was 2.) As mentioned before, we have no blocking in place, high pressure is sliding off the coast of Canada, we have a low pressure system rapidly intensifying and getting very wound up, while meanwhile our kicker that would have helped keep this from being a coastal hugger seems to be moving much slower than was previously modeled. The main concern is that we would need thing to completely change on the models for the outcome to support big changes from these 18z runs. The NAM is really on it's own now, and unfortunately it has been many times before (showing 15-30" solutions 2-3 days before an event, just to cave the next day OR the next model run). Lesson learned here is that, as some have mentioned in the past couple days, without the necessary ingredients, it is VERY tough to duplicate such a great meal. Possible, but VERY tough. I think even the more knowledgeable posters here got very "amped up" over the great model runs that the idea of needing those ingredients was put on the backburner, obviously, or we would not see so many caves given one or two runs of these model suites Well put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still think this can be a very nice event despite going to rain and dry slotting for a time. The front end looks very heavy and there could be surprises with the backlash- the Euro seemed very impressed by it as did the GGEM and Uk. This will still likely add nicely to the snowpack in most areas as ground temps never torch and there might not be much rain if the dry slot is almost in by then for city and coast. Really hoping though that the NW trend is done. 2/4/1995, 3/13/1993, 1/23/87 come to mind when coastal huggers give us a good thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z model thread yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at 0Z and 12Z model runs from yesterday, which have performed best over the past 24-36 hours? Which runs best modeled where our northern and southern streams systems were at 12Z today and their strength? Might give a clue as to which models are best handling these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm holding firm with my statement that I believe the Euro was about the westward limit of this system with the kicker back there. Strength of that will be key too, as any ridging between the kicker and coastal as a result of the GL disturbance will be very helpful. If it winds up being a weak kicker we are left with a col point in the mid levels that could allow the coastal and associated mid level features to come closer to the coast. guess the only positive for coastal locations is that the northern stream ended up being stronger once it was sampled so not ALL hope is lost for lots of snow down to the coast. but if the amped up models hold serve im going with 4-6" total here and NOT depending on a good backlash snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is not really a good ZR setup. If any areas of mixing it would predominantly be IP due to mid levels warming. I really meant IP, but I did see a weak high pop up near Quebec on some of model runs today. Cold air has really done well this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 guess the only positive for coastal locations is that the northern stream ended up being stronger once it was sampled so not ALL hope is lost for lots of snow down to the coast. but if the amped up models hold serve im going with 4-6" total here and NOT depending on a good backlash snowfall Never rely on backlash snows to get you to a certain amount. I'm more willing to accept forecasts for front end thumps then backlash snows by tenfold (there is something to be said for throwing warm air over a cold dome rather then hoping for a CCB to develop over any given area with a departing LP system when things could be drying out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really meant IP, but I did see a weak high pop up near Quebec on some of model runs today. Cold air has really done well this winter. I really meant IP, but I did see a weak high pop up near Quebec on some of model runs today. Cold air has really done well this winter. I actually have seen that pop up on the models today as well. It's weak (1020-1024 variety) but it's better than nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never rely on backlash snows to get you to a certain amount. I'm more willing to accept forecasts for front end thumps then backlash snows by tenfold (there is something to be said for throwing warm air over a cold dome rather then hoping for a CCB to develop over any given area with a departing LP system when things could be drying out).I've found that they almost NEVER work out....the exception that I can remember is the storm a couple years ago....it seemed to go on forever (but that was a norlun trough I believe, after the lull???)....and of course the christmas storm years ago that dumped a foot in some areas (about 5" here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I actually have seen that pop up on the models today as well. It's weak (1020-1024 variety) but it's better than nothing at all. Just something to keep in the back of your head. I personally am NW of I-95 and think I am in a good spot but, any little bit will help I-95. Correct in the saying the kicker comes on shore tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never rely on backlash snows to get you to a certain amount. I'm more willing to accept forecasts for front end thumps then backlash snows by tenfold (there is something to be said for throwing warm air over a cold dome rather then hoping for a CCB to develop over any given area with a departing LP system when things could be drying out). They tend to only occur in this area with closed lows off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They tend to only occur in this area with closed lows off the coast Exactly which in this case is playing with fire because if it closes off too quickly then game over. Too late and you get the NAM's depiction of CCB snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Exactly which in this case is playing with fire because if it closes off too quickly then game over. Too late and you get the NAM's depiction of CCB snows. backlash snows im not counting on with this system. id be shocked if I got more than 2" with backlash regardless if it stay all snow on the coast or we get 3" and go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just something to keep in the back of your head. I personally am NW of I-95 and think I am in a good spot but, any little bit will help I-95. Correct in the saying the kicker comes on shore tonight? Kicker should be better sampled in tonight's 00z guidance. This in addition to the recon data (save for the NAM) should help us start honing in on tucked in versus BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z Thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42827-0z-models-2122014-potential-major-coastal-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 backlash snows im not counting on with this system. id be shocked if I got more than 2" with backlash regardless if it stay all snow on the coast or we get 3" and go to rain I remember the march 93 and march 2001 storms our area was forecasted to get 3-6" inches of backlash snows and they never materialized. ever since then Ive never got my hopes up for backlash. they usually disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I remember the march 93 and march 2001 storms our area was forecasted to get 3-6" inches of backlash snows and they never materialized. ever since then Ive never got my hopes up for backlash. they usually disappoint 9/10 times its only some moderate snow for a period if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 9/10 times its only some moderate snow for a period if that. Christmas 2002 was probably was one of best examples of one here. Heavy thunderstorm and around 40 at noon with a curtain of heavy snows by 5pm at the coast. But I believe most of the models were way underdone on this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We need to hope that we get into that dryslot and the rain remains light. If we get into heavier bands of rain, there would also be a flooding threat. Either way, this has been an awesome winter and if we get shafted this time, its all good. Even then we're looking at a nice front end thump. 3-6" I would go for NYC metro, 2-4" west L.I , 4-8" for the western burbs and 8-12"+ for extreme NW burbs. Still looking a nice event and looking quite forward to 00z with the new data ingested into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Christmas 2002 was probably was one of best examples of one here. Heavy thunderstorm and around 40 at noon with a curtain of heavy snows by 5pm at the coast. 122521.png that worked because the mid level system redeveloped and closed off overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i think the rarity of backend stuff is a little overplayed it happens fairly often (in relation to how rare people make it out to be)..especially when the storm starts off as snow. obliviously not smart to totally rely on it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Exactly which in this case is playing with fire because if it closes off too quickly then game over. Too late and you get the NAM's depiction of CCB snows. It's hard to count on that but hopefully the model trends for a beefed up backlash and closed low overhead come to fruition. I think a lot of people can still get 6" from the front end -if it lasts 6 hours and we average 1"/hr, there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i think the rarity of backend stuff is a little overplayed it happens fairly often (in relation to how rare people make it out to be)..especially when the storm starts off as snow. obliviously not smart to totally rely on it though I agree. I woud think Feb. 2006 would be an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Even the warm Euro and GGEM would basically be an 8-hr major thump, from 4am until maybe noon-1pm when Long Island and NYC go above 0 in the mid levels. GGEM has well over an inch liquid by then in NYC/Long Island, and the Euro sounds similar even though I can't see the precip panels. 0z runs will be quite telling and hopefully don't continue this warm trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Christmas 2002 was probably was one of best examples of one here. Heavy thunderstorm and around 40 at noon with a curtain of heavy snows by 5pm at the coast. But I believe most of the models were way underdone on this feature. 122521.png The GFS had shown it for a few days but NCEP and the NWS had largely been tossing it, that morning the Upton forecaster did put out a WSW for the coast at 4am effective that afternoon and evening but the day shift promptly dropped it at 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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