IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 45 passing right over OBX or slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Negative tilt hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 48 closes off..mid levels flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Closed off again at H5 over NC hour 48. Heavy rain. 850mb freezing line into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850s are warmer this run @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Raining in DC by 15z per Mid-Atlantic Thread (10am Thurs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Very warm run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 51 precip lightning up a bit. Bit of a dry slot. This should still end up okay as the 500mb low passes offshore. That will drag the CCB back over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101620 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014 WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71-- A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000Z B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66 C. 11/2000Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 13/0000Z $$ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Closes back off again hour 54 right over Ocean City, MD. Coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Landfall into eastern LI. Wrap around CCB moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is still very likely too warm given that track and likely too poor dynamics NW of the low. That's actually a great track for us. If it had the dynamics and temp profile of the other models, it would be a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Very close to 12z euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Landfall into eastern LI. Wrap around CCB moving in. What hour is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most areas flip back to snow before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Very warm run. Wow....It has the back end still though coming through @ 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 when there's a big system afoot, U.S. physics always bows to European physics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a lot of precip at all on the western side. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It crosses the twin forks between hours 57 and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks like 2-3 from ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 972mb in the gulf of Maine. We still get good wrap around snows, especially west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 QPF is over an inch for NYC, a bit less as you move NW and a bit more as you move southeast. The 0.75"+ line is well back into western Warren/Sussex Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Overall bad trends from this 18z suite. Let's hope it doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z GFS looks way too warm given where the surface low is...low is off VA Beach at 48 hours and 850s run into the Poconos near High Point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Most areas flip back to snow before ending. Very nice CCB signature. We'll have to wait and see later runs for the exact location of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would like to see this track with the western side being juicier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We'd better hope the 0z runs tonight with hopefully better sampled data from the northern stream show a faster northern stream, or this could quickly turn into a 12z Euro outcome with a few hour thump or so city-east then rain and dryslot. The CCB on this GFS run is very likely underdone though given the depth of the mid level low. That would be good for another few inches probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z GFS FWIW looks nearly identical to the track of the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean, including the warm mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We'd better hope the 0z runs tonight with hopefully better sampled data from the northern stream show a faster northern stream, or this could quickly turn into a 12z Euro outcome with a few hour thump or so city-east then rain and dryslot. The CCB on this GFS run is very likely underdone though given the depth of the mid level low. That would be good for another few inches probably. The weight on flat top roofs is going to be pretty big with previous snowpack plus front end thump to rain and back to snow for collapse potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 These kinds of negative trends always seem to occur 2 days before these large synoptic (espec Miller A) storms. Not saying things will necessarily improve by 00z or tomorrow - as perhaps the models are catching on to something - but I do recall similar trends in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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