IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's about to close off at H5 hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 West of 12z for sure and a a LOT of moisture at 42. 850 straddles the NJ coast up through Ocean County and then is south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1005 low on the Outer Banks at 36. Roughly neutral tilt, that's a good sign that at least it won't go due N from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is now at the optimal range for accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CCB @ 45...850 are in the exact same place even with the slightly more westerly track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the image above looks more negative then the one superstorm posted..but its not severely negative yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is now at the optimal range for accuracy From WPC: THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUNDID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICHYIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TOPUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From WPC: THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUNDID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICHYIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TOPUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. It was way more energetic this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You've just been NamBombedTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 42 999mb low off Ocean City, MD...light snow with mod to heavy snow on the door step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NYC Destoryed @ 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it still doesn't close off, despite the intial stronger look. Nam is either going to be hero or zero with its H5 depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is my ideal track right over the SST boundary, maybe a tad too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Boom. Nam for 2000 please Alex.. ...is,there less wrap aRound than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not model analysis but WSW issued for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is now at the optimal range for accuracy Maybe tomorrow at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is now at the optimal range for accuracy Absolutely not. Tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not model analysis but WSW issued for NYC. it's fine. ...WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...CTZ009-010-NJZ006-105>108-NYZ071>075-176>179-120500-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.140213T0500Z-140214T1100Z/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-322 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE ENDING.* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO COLLAPSE AND TREES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe tomorrow at 18z. We are less than 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Interestingly enough though the NAM 500 doesn't look that sharp. The nam is a much more progressive system then the Euro, colder but quicker, the 500mb actually is not a classic MECS/HECS presentation in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 considering the NAM has the SLP on the weak side I have trouble believing it when all the other models are much stronger which would argue for a closer to the coast SLP...I would love for it to verify but it just doesn't jive in regards to strength of the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM sticking to its guns here, track is slightly west but the CCB is very similar to the placement at 12z. It actually shows slightly colder 850s draining down the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well the NAM has essentially matched the other models (within 20-40 miles) for the track of the storm. The thermal profiles remain much colder of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doesn't quite close off at H5 but real close. Major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 surface freezing line at nyc at hr 48...through nyc at hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Kicker was slower this run, which help it come west - Nam is not as bullish on the back end snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is still 6-12" for the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is now at the optimal range for accuracy "IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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