simpsonsbuff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty much every person in this forum would go to rain per the RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty much every person in this forum would go to rain per the RGEM... State College to Albany ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doesnt the RGEM run off CMC? Not totally surprising as CMC was west (though obviously this is even further so). Seems to be an extreme outlier though so lets wait for 00z before we panic. Can a met explain why it took such an inland track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We toss. Seriously though, with all this talk of a kicker, what would cause it to move NW like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Remember when people said the euro was as far west as this would go? yikes...not even close to other guidance but if its a start of a trend its going to get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can a met chime in with suspicions on the RGEM's dramatic shift west? Could it be picking up on a less intense kicker now that the piece of energy is moving inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z RGEM is not totally awful in terms of snow, still puts down ~20mm in KNYC which about .8 liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We toss. Seriously though, with all this talk of a kicker, what would cause it to move NW like that?a stronger phase, or the kicker not kicking but phasing in as well, which would pull it nwEdit: I highly doubt the kicker phases.. More than likely it kicks too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doesnt the RGEM run off CMC? Not totally surprising as CMC was west (though obviously this is even further so). Seems to be an extreme outlier though so lets wait for 00z before we panic. Can a met explain why it took such an inland track? I'm not a met but as far as I can tell the low closed off too soon, the Great Lakes kicker is ignored until it is too late, there's no downstream blocking/-NAO and the cold air source to the north is too far to the north to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z RGEM is not totally awful in terms of snow, still puts down ~20mm in KNYC which about .8 liquid equivalent. How do you know thats all as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can a met chime in with suspicions on the RGEM's dramatic shift west? Could it be picking up on a less intense kicker now that the piece of energy is moving inland? I've followed the RGEM more this winter than ever before and I have noticed it tends to have some very strange 06 and 18z runs, it seems like it's still stuck in the old ETA and GFS days when off hour runs were way worse than they seem to be today. Basically it tries to capture the low via the Great Lakes low in essence if we had a 60 hour frame this thing would be over central pa it's basically going sandy on the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How do you know thats all as snow? It puts roughly the same amount of rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 a stronger phase, or the kicker not kicking but phasing in as well, which would pull it nw Makes sense. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've followed the RGEM more this winter than ever before and I have noticed it tends to have some very strange 06 and 18z runs, it seems like it's still stuck in the old ETA and GFS days when off hour runs were way worse than they seem to be today. Basically it tries to capture the low via the Great Lakes low in essence if we had a 60 hour frame this thing would be over central pa it's basically going sandy on the coastal Well lets hope it goes east tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh this is a brutal statement from Upton out here on LI. AKA flip a coin if this storm will wash out your snow pack or add to it! WE MAY BE TALKING FLOODING CONCERNS WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCHES. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WE COULD BE TALKING HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN INTO COASTAL ZONES...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON THURSDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We toss. Seriously though, with all this talk of a kicker, what would cause it to move NW like that? Probably blows up the low very early and occludes it around the 500mb low. Obviously, that would be horrendous for anyone in our area. Instead of adding to the snow pack, that would probably melt it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There are some similarities in this event to January 2000 where the models more or less saw the Lakes system as a kicker but in reality it pulled the system west...the RGEM is seeing that Lakes system more as a phaser than a kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z GFS is already looking stronger at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably blows up the low very early and occludes it around the 500mb low. Obviously, that would be horrendous for anyone in our area. Instead of adding to the snow pack, that would probably melt it all. Its entirely possible the end result of such a scenario would actually be more drizzle and showers than anything else, you might get an initial blast of heavy snow and then the system would be occluding so far to our south its possible you'd be left with nothing more than spotty light rain...there is a signal for a massive dry slot in there on that RGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 only if... NAM(4k) -- 57HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here we go...GFS Digging more through 27 ( a little more positive) ...Kicker seems to be slower with the front energy @ H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its entirely possible the end result of such a scenario would actually be more drizzle and showers than anything else, you might get an initial blast of heavy snow and then the system would be occluding so far to our south its possible you'd be left with nothing more than spotty light rain...there is a signal for a massive dry slot in there on that RGEM run. Yeah you can definitely see its rain but not heavy by hour 54 when the low is sw of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh this is a brutal statement from Upton out here on LI. AKA flip a coin if this storm will wash out your snow pack or add to it! WE MAY BE TALKING FLOODING CONCERNS WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCHES. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WE COULD BE TALKING HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN INTO COASTAL ZONES...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON THURSDAY U would think they would use past storms climate type of storm ect as a factor than model hugging. With that said almost every model has shown Minimum of 8 inches of snow even the ones with a changeover. As it is I think they are lowballing the amounts but I guess it is better era on the side of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 H5 closes off over Atlanta Hour 39. Super amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 39 light snow up to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow @ our door @ 39 - SLP is a tick west @ 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow moving in hour 39 with the low pressure off the NC coast. Very close to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Heavy snow hour 42. Already sub 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 hr 42 mod snow up to ttn..low over hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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