Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z 4KM is quite impressive. With the 12Km and 4Km more westward, the 00z may actually converge on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unless we can grab one of the non American models back tonite at 0z , I think there will be very little weight given to this out of the local offices . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Temps creep above freezing at the surface for a very brief period around hr 51 for eastern sections as the system pivots and the CCB moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM does not want much to do with the ccb band at the end of the storm. Its all front end loaded. Only around .25 falls after 18z on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surprising no watches from Mt. Holly for Monmouth on north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surprising no watches from Mt. Holly for Monmouth on north and west. They are coming...just havent updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM does not want much to do with the ccb band at the end of the storm. Its all front end loaded. Only around .25 falls after 18z on Thursday. Sometimes the models like to over play the back end so it might be right with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unless we can grab one of the non American models back tonite at 0z , I think there will be very little weight given to this out of the local offices . get the non american models back from what? GGEM/UKMET are both major snowstorms for NYC despite some mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surprising no watches from Mt. Holly for Monmouth on north and west. I'm sure they're forthcoming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unless we can grab one of the non American models back tonite at 0z , I think there will be very little weight given to this out of the local offices . In some ways, a farther westward solution isn't that bad for coastal areas, especially places further north. What you lose in the changeover to rain you gain in QPF. For example, the GGEM, which was one of the farthest west models with a 971mb low making landfall on eastern LI, had nearly 2" of QPF for the metro area...some of that isn't snow, but a lot is. For places far enough north to benefit from the wraparound as H5 tightens and the H7 and H85 lows close to the southeast, a farther west track means that more of the snow will be in the second half of the storm during the CCB. It doesn't have to mean less snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 get the non american models back from what? GGEM/UKMET are both major snowstorms for NYC despite some mixing issues Inland track over AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 4k NAM through only hour 54 is spitting out nearly 1.75" of QPF for NYC proper and 1.5"+ all the way back to KMMU. This run is definitely wetter than 12z. Snow depth charts in NNJ have spots close to 2 feet. Unfortunately that takes into account current estimated snowpack so we can't see for sure how much snow it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM through hour 60: ITs mostly front end snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think it might be becasue it starts interacting with the kicker It absolutely is, my problem is that between 39 and 42 the majority of the energy rounds the base of the trough. At this point in time is when I would expect the best ridging to occur out ahead of the s/w. However you can see at 39 the ridge axis aimed NW over NJ dampens by 42 hours. At 39/42 the southern s/w is about to turn negative and it should by all accounts with the energy now pulling around to the front side of the trough. At 45 the energy is screaming on a NNE trajectory however you can see at 500 the s/w is still pretty much the same tilt. I have a hard time believing this because as that energy rounds the base of the trough, that inherent slingshot motion should help turn it more negative than the NAM is showing, thus slowing down the storm. Not saying this would have major implications upstream, however I believe the NAM is too fast with its progression of the system as shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL at the prospect of the NAM not doing much on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface winds are looking stronger too, especially over NNJ where 40-45 MPH looks possible now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sometimes the models like to over play the back end so it might be right with that Agree...and often underplay the front end. But with the Euro being so aggressive with the backlash....it makes you wonder if the NAM is missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 4k Nam is impressive with almost 2" QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Mt. Holly issues watches for and warnings for Ocean County south and west, don't know if this should go here: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY...NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-120500-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0007.140213T0600Z-140214T1100Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THEPOCONOS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...PRIMARILY HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALTHOUGH10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THEPOCONOS.* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW AFTERMIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEETDURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTERMIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THEREGION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL IMPACTS...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLEON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY SNOWACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS BY THE TIME WINDSINCREASE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$JOHNSON Warning (The Coastal Version): Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY...DEZ002-003-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>022-027-120500-/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.140213T0000Z-140213T1800Z//O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.140213T0000Z-140213T1800Z/KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST343 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCHIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE WARNING INCLUDES SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MARYLANDEASTERN SHORE.* HAZARD TYPES...PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTEDINLAND. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE CLOSER TO THESHORE.* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW WEDNESDAYNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A SNOW AND SLEET MIX EARLYTHURSDAY MORNING. BY MID DAY THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION ISEXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THEREGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO TRAVELIMPACTS...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BEPOSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF THEREHAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES BYTHE TIME THE WINDS INCREASE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 get the non american models back from what? GGEM/UKMET are both major snowstorms for NYC despite some mixing issues Remember we will front end , CCB is not easy to pin down on the back end . So as per GGEM and UKMET , how long do you rain when does the column collapse towards the center . Would you rather have the NAM or UKMET ? ( ukie was colder today than last nite ) Back in the sense I would like to see 1 go wire to wire like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL at the prospect of the NAM not doing much on the back end. Im interested to analyze differences between NAM and 4kNAM at 500. Id highly suspect the 4kNAM is picking up on what I am saying about the NAM at 500 and that is why we get much better CCB development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 "CMC just loaded up on WxBell... 3"QPF for PHL. 2.5" NYC" accuweather forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the NAM is the only model that doesn't close off the H5 low. its either gonna be a hero or a zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It absolutely is, my problem is that between 39 and 42 the majority of the energy rounds the base of the trough. At this point in time is when I would expect the best ridging to occur out ahead of the s/w. However you can see at 39 the ridge axis aimed NW over NJ dampens by 42 hours. At 39/42 the southern s/w is about to turn negative and it should by all accounts with the energy now pulling around to the front side of the trough. At 45 the energy is screaming on a NNE trajectory however you can see at 500 the s/w is still pretty much the same tilt. I have a hard time believing this because as that energy rounds the base of the trough, that inherent slingshot motion should help turn it more negative than the NAM is showing, thus slowing down the storm. Not saying this would have major implications upstream, however I believe the NAM is too fast with its progression of the system as shown here. Great analysis brother, Yea its like it hits a wall when it was trying to go negative. Not sure if its on to something or its just being the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great analysis brother, Yea its like it hits a wall when it was trying to go negative. Not sure if its on to something or its just being the nam We know the answer to this. Every other model closes off at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Remember we will front end , CCB is not easy to pin down on the back end . So as per GGEM and UKMET , how long do you rain when does the column collapse towards the center . Would you rather have the NAM or UKMET ? ( ukie was colder today than last nite ) Back in the sense I would like to see 1 go wire to wire like the NAM UKMET meteogram was pretty much all snow for KNYC. We'll flirt with the 0C line for a while yes. If H5 closes off the way the GGEM/UKMET/Euro portray, i'm confident we get backside CCB snows as well. Still 4 model cycles to go through before snow moves in. think Euro ticks SE tonight. GFS is a great model this winter, as is the Euro, i don't think any of them have the right solution right now, so take a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Too bad that 4k map is hour 60 and not hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is your latest and greatest from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We know the answer to this. Every other model closes off at H5. Yea I highly doubt the NAM is correct at H5. Like I said my forecast would adjust for that, something just seems off about its depiction and I cant buy it. There is no way with all that energy rounding the base that the s/w remains that open and neutral slightly negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For 4K Nam images, go here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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