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00z Models 2/11/2014 | Potential Major Coastal Storm


earthlight

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The snow maps on SV show little accumulations. Well under warning criteria and virtually nothing out in the far NW areas. That's the product of terrible ratios.

 

Use your brain on this. These kind of posts make the thread worse. If you think that areas along I-95 are getting "little accumulations" with 0.75"+ liquid under a moderate to strong CCB, I don't know what to tell you. Even with poor ratios. 

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Use your brain on this. These kind of posts make the thread worse. If you think that areas along I-95 are getting "little accumulations" with 0.75"+ liquid under a moderate to strong CCB, I don't know what to tell you. Even with poor ratios.

I just don't see it. The rates don't look great unless you're on the immediate coast. It's just one run anyway. Things will change again.
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Use your brain on this. These kind of posts make the thread worse. If you think that areas along I-95 are getting "little accumulations" with 0.75"+ liquid under a moderate to strong CCB, I don't know what to tell you. Even with poor ratios. 

Seriously-and the rates look plenty heavy enough for good accumulations. The snow on Monday came down light-mod much of the time and accumulated just fine, in the middle of the day.

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I just don't see it. The rates don't look great unless you're on the immediate coast. It's just one run anyway. Things will change again.

 

Then you aren't using your brain. Sorry. You're wrong if you think the people under moderate to heavy precipitation with -2 to -4 850 temps and developing CCB and enhanced lift/dynamics are getting "little accumulation".

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Seriously-and the rates look plenty heavy enough for good accumulations. The snow on Monday came down light-mod much of the time and accumulated just fine, in the middle of the day.

Yeah if we could get 8-10" with the Monday storm without a CCB and temperatures just as marginal and similar QPF, then I don't see why we can't with this assuming the Nam is correct of course.

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Why are you guys even  talking about ratios ?   Since you are here  the  850`s on the 0z run are - 4   at KNYC and through CNJ . Ratio`s are not poor AT ALL  pls stop with the 6 to 1 .

 

It's really only "one guy".  As John indicated earlier, the 850s have actually looked fine the past few runs.  People just look at the smoothed color map and don't bother looking at the temp profiles or the other hi-res modeling.

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Climatology will do coastal sections a favor. We are at/near the climatological trough of coastal SST's. SST's off the coast of LI are only 34-37F. 

 

Additionally there is rock solid snow-pack that exists in most coastal sections. Most areas on LI have 4 - 8" of rock hard snow-pack that isn't going anywhere prior to this storm. This will have a minor but noteworthy impact on surface temps as well.

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Yeah if we could get 8-10" with the Monday storm without a CCB and temperatures just as marginal and similar QPF, then I don't see why we can't with this assuming the Nam is correct of course.

There's still a ways to go on this, and I wouldn't rule out meaningful shifts until probably tomorrow night. The NAM is always known for being quirky, and the Euro/ensembles are still adamant on the west/tucked in track. Right now, the best estimate is something of a compromise, but a lot can and likely will still happen. Not time to pop the champagne cork or jump off a bridge. The strength and speed of the kicker, still not entirely sampled yet, is huge in the evolution of all this. A slow or weak kicker makes a Euro track possible, a fast and stronger kicker makes a more sheared out storm possible.

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There's still a ways to go on this, and I wouldn't rule out meaningful shifts until probably tomorrow night. The NAM is always known for being quirky, and the Euro/ensembles are still adamant on the west/tucked in track. Right now, the best estimate is something of a compromise, but a lot can and likely will still happen. Not time to pop the champagne cork or jump off a bridge. The strength and speed of the kicker, still not entirely sampled yet, is huge in the evolution of all this. A slow or weak kicker makes a Euro track possible, a fast and stronger kicker makes a more sheared out storm possible.

 

This is a thoughtful post...much like an approaching hurricane...expect a good deal of wobbling...probably in both directions...over the next 48 hours.

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It's really only "one guy".  As John indicated earlier, the 850s have actually looked fine the past few runs.  People just look at the smoothed color map and don't bother looking at the temp profiles or the other hi-res modeling.I

Its one Op run of a high res model that's clearly better inside 48 hours , I am on the coast and my eyes are on the Euro Ensembles they throw 1 inch of liquid back to State College .

I`m not worried about a whiff , I`m worried about Rain.

Take the blend tonite , look to see  how many runs look similar .  and how each handle the Northern and southern branch feature  . Build a forecast based  on consensus  not emotion .

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The snow maps on SV show little accumulations. Well under warning criteria and virtually nothing out in the far NW areas. That's the product of terrible ratios.

The soundings are plenty cold for snow and the surface is below freezing. This run of the NAM would probably be 6"-12" in EWR, NYC and JFK and 4"-8" in the northern and western suburbs of NYC. That's still a pretty significant snowfall if it plays out that way, though at this range I'd still take the Euro over the NAM.

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Climatology will do coastal sections a favor. We are at/near the climatological trough of coastal SST's. SST's off the coast of LI are only 34-37F. 

 

Additionally there is rock solid snow-pack that exists in most coastal sections. Most areas on LI have 4 - 8" of rock hard snow-pack that isn't going anywhere prior to this storm. This will have a minor but noteworthy impact on surface temps as well.

I have about 7-8" on the ground here at my house. As long as winds stay NE, temps shouldn't go over 33-34, even if a west track like the Euro verifies and we briefly switch to sleet or rain. Winds off snowcovered land are our best friend here, even though the mid levels may torch regardless in a west track.

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