packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The big problem I have with that is he is using the NAM. NAM could be right but it looked especially like garbage today. I also have the same issue with that. He has been bashing the American models all week and then breaks them down in detail to make a specific forecast without considering the models he has said were superior. I'm not trying to banter up this thread and do not want to rant, but that is a valid critique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DT did a **** poor job with that forecast. He looked at the extracted data from wxcaster and put that tripe out. He also had a lot more for RDU yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just dont see any possible way that Charlotte ends up with half an inch of QPF as ZR. DT has proven before that he cant even FIND charlotte on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth 26m@stormcoolio Havent seen it yet. But compare vapor and water content now. All are too dry. 2" qpf ATL, GSP, CLT RDU zones 1.5 AVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I didn't see this posted. canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just dont see any possible way that Charlotte ends up with half an inch of QPF as ZR. DT has proven before that he cant even FIND charlotte on a map. Yep, he is not alone with the 3-6 but...I just doubt that verifies....the ZR stuff is just the literal icing on the cake. It will be tough being on that line though .We'll know if sleet starts mixing in around 7pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That total accum map is unreal.. I didn't see this posted. canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just dont see any possible way that Charlotte ends up with half an inch of QPF as ZR. DT has proven before that he cant even FIND charlotte on a map. That idea is pretty absurd for sure. I doubt he ever gives the southeast more than a passing glance. That total accum map is unreal.. Could be some flooding issues in extreme eastern nc...that's 4 to 6 inches of rain being shown there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Brad Panovich's updated snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I recall (could have been a few years back) someone around here had a paper about this issue. WXSOUTH also stated that a few hours back: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 4h Will be watching RAP model closely for signs of convection tomorrow in Gulf. Could have impact further north. #sewx #snow #ice I'd love to get my hands on that at a future time. No need to go digging for it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Starting to come in line with others thoughts back into WNC . Brad Panovich's updated snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know it's nowcasting time, but 18z NAM showing interesting change at 5h through 18 hours -- earlier more robust phase than 12z at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The SREF looks wetter for many. Not sure about other locations, but the AVL average is now at 11 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I didn't see this posted. canadian was a little further north with it's axis of heaviest precip. That's a lot of sleet. That is an absolute pounding. Probably the heaviest sleet we'll see for quite awhile. I saw your post earlier on the "finger of fun" ramping up in our area similar to 2011. Usually with these intensifying systems we do get the moisture streak our ahead of the main batch, here's to hoping that the column will be cold enough for all snow. I know we're close based on our location but I guess it'll be a game time decision to see how it unfolds. Haven't been in front of the computer for awhile......any new indications come in lately that show where the ice/snow line may set up? Our DP here is still below freezing and with the NE winds now kicking in, hopefully we won't warm much above the 33/34 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just saw the 18z nam and want to comment on Atlanta and the northern burbs. I agree with Larry, I don't see this as freezing rain looking at some crude temperature maps in the upper levels. It's pretty cold all of the way through there is a warm bubble at 800-900 ish but it's not that warm. The rest of the column is cold and sections of it are very cold. This leads me to believe we are looking at sleet but the column is so cold I'm starting to think it could actually be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS Raleigh Afternoon Discussion. Sounds Legit!! .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY......SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAYTHROUGH THURSDAY...P-TYPES FROM SNOW IN THE NW TO A MAJOR ICING IN THE EASTERNPIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A WINTER STORM THISPERIOD. AND FINALLY... A PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. THE12Z/OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE... WITH THEEXCEPTION OF A SURFACE LOW TRACK ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF THE MODELSCURRENT DEPICTION. WPC PREFERS THIS MODEL ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ISSTILL NOT HIGH... BUT IS INCREASING WITH TIME. THIS SOLUTIONESSENTIALLY LEAVES OUR ONGOING FORECAST INTACT WITH ONLY A FEWSUBTLE CHANGES NEEDED. HOWEVER... THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF SPREADNOTED IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE FINAL TRACK... AND THECORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION TYPES... MEANING THAT A TRACK 50 MILESLEFT (WEST) WOULD MEAN MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING (FREEZING RAIN)POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD REGION... ANDSLIGHTLY LESS SNOW/SLEET (FROZEN P-TYPE) ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUTTHE REGION.CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING WITH A STRONG HIGH (1035+ MB)...DELIVERING VERY COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH(12Z/WED). THE HIGH DOES SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT BEFORE SUPPLYING PLENTIFUL COLD DRYINTO OUR REGION TO SUPPORT A MAJOR WINTER STORM. VERY STRONGMOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT CORRESPONDS WITH THE VERY STRONG LIFTARRIVING OVER OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THEEVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY CORRESPONDING QPF. MUCH OF THE QPFWILL BE FROZEN/FREEZING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.25INCHES EXPECTED.BEGINNING TIME...THE PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTOTHE REGION FROM THE SOUTH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK... REACHING THEALBEMARLE TO FAYETTEVILLE AREAS BY MID-MORNING... THEN THE TRIAD ANDTRIANGLE AREAS EITHER JUST BEFORE NOON (TRIAD) AND AROUND NOON INTHE TRIANGLE. THE FAR NE ZONES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. THEMODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH POSSIBLY ASLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSET OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT DUE TO LIKELYBEING IN THE HEART OF THE VERY DRY COLD RIDGING DURING THE DAY.REGARDLESS... ALL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE IMPACT BY LATE AFTERNOON.PRECIPITATION TYPES AND HAZARDS...PARTIALS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGSINCORPORATING MODEL OF CHOICE AND WPC PROBABILISTIC WINTERPRECIPITATION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NWPIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION... SNOW MIXING WITH CHANGING TOSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE ANDWADESBORO TO SOUTHERN PINES... RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. AND...FINALLY SNOW CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE SE ZONES... FROM THESANDHILLS THROUGH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN REGION (FAY TO GSB TO NEARRWI).A MAJOR...IF NOT CRIPPLING ICE STORM...APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLYOVER PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS...THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT... ANDWESTERN...IF NOT ALL THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE WILL TRY TO SEGMENT THEWINTER STORM WARNING INTO THREE OR FOUR GROUPS TO HONE IN ON THEEXPECTED P-TYPE TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS.SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW (AND TRIAD) WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10INCHES. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SE SIDE OF THETRIAD AS THERE MAY BE SOME MIX WITH SLEET (WED EVENING)... THENPOSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHTAS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS NE AND SATURATION IS LOST ALOFT). FOR THEREST OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO TO RALEIGHAND ROANOKE RAPID... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN... THE WARM NOSE IS MOST PROMINENT INTHE SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE PREFERREDEC WOULD ALLOW THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AFTER 1-3 INCHES FALLS...THEN A TRANSITION TO A MAJOR ICING EVENT WED LATE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. ICE WILL COLLECT ON POWER LINES... TREES AND ALL EXPOSEDSURFACES TO A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. THIS WOULD BE MAJOR ICING ANDIT COULD POSSIBLY REACH OR EXCEED SOME OF THE ICE STORM TOTALS ANDIN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AS THE DECEMBER 2002 ICE STORM.THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE A BRIEF SNOW TO START...WITH AN INCH OR SO... THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TOFREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY. HERE... A MAJOR ICING EVENT ISEXPECTED WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MORE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOMEQUESTION ABOUT SURFACE WARMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 32 OR 33.LATENT HEAT (MELTING) AND HEAVY QPF SHOULD REDUCE THE ICINGSOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 31 OR BELOW THROUGHTHE EVENT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CONTINUE.AS IF THIS IS NOT ENOUGH...THE TRACK OF THE MID AND UPPER LOW MAYBE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. IF SO... SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING ANADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FORADDITIONAL SNOWS WOULD BE FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE NORTH TOTHE VA BORDER. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE FINALTRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATIONOF THE ACCUMULATING ADDITIONAL SNOW THURSDAY. FOR NOW... SNOW ISLIKELY NORTH...A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTH.AS FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE BEGINNING TO THE ENDOF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH THEPRECIPITATION ONSET... THEN REACH 20-23 IN THE NW AND UPPER 20S SE.THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE... REMAINING 27-32 THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z NAM at 30 18z NAM at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Im wondering if this is an error, but the updated Grid forecast for MCN shows nothing but rain tomorrow from FFC...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Channel 3 Charlotte going with nam The NAM is likely a good estimate of snow totals. Looks like 4-8" along & NW of I 85 and 3-6" SE of I 85. #ncwx #scwx pic.twitter.com/GcQTKTr0DV 2:49pm - 11 Feb 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z NAM at 30 namUS_500_avort_030.gif 18z NAM at 24 namUS_500_avort_024.gif This run of the NAM also colder @850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One update. I am going for a bit less freezing rain in NC eastern piedmont, more sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Odd -- looks so more prodigious at 5h, but precip field doesn't respond and track seems about the same. This run of the NAM also colder @850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoG20 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WSPA in Spartanburg SC just updated their totals map to 7-10+ inches of snow for the I-85 counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Odd -- looks so more prodigious at 5h, but precip field doesn't respond and track seems about the same. Still has a double barrel low .. bad feedback issues with the NAM. Beyond 24 hrs it's useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM comes west -- 850 temp issues into CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One update. I am going for a bit less freezing rain in NC eastern piedmont, more sleet/snow. Curious, you seeing less of warm nose at 700/750? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM comes west -- 850 temp issues into CLT. Even past CLT, all the way to Shelby. Don't by that, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM comes west -- 850 temp issues into CLT. Didn't look good for the I-85 corridor in NC. Looks to be all sleet/freezing rain except for a couple of hours on either end of the storm. I wonder if this is because the storm is so much weaker on the nam? It doesn't get down to 1000mb until its on the MA coast. No way for it to funnel down the cold temperatures because it's not wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm with Wow -- phase was earlier and stronger, but the storm was weaker. I don't get it. Didn't look good for the I-85 corridor in NC. Looks to be all sleet/freezing rain except for a couple of hours on either end of the storm. I wonder if this is because the storm is so much weaker on the nam? It doesn't get down to 1000mb until its on the MA coast. No way for it to funnel down the cold temperatures because it's not wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the forecast from FFC. I think they have done a fantastic job thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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