ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good thing professionals don't jump around based on every model run....I guess this is why it is called guidance and not a forecast. You can't shovel model guidance! We are really going to have to pray for a major snow thump overnight Wednesday because we are staring at an ugly dryslot where precip shuts off for hours, temps warm and then when precip resumes its light and non-accumulating. 850 track is way too close for us along with the 500 track.......need everything to shift 50-100 miles SE in a hurry.....my guess is we are toast at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 7-10" total snow in SEPA with wrap back, most everybody including NJ does ok with the first half of storm snows, NYC area seems to do worst Sorry for IMBY, but - Lehigh Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 That is a pretty big spread, which I think is indicative of the uncertainty of the track and the closing off of the H-5. Ya know, I remember when 6-12 was a perfectly acceptable forecast range. What do you guys expect from us, miracles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We are really going to have to pray for a major snow thump overnight Wednesday because we are staring at an ugly dryslot where precip shuts off for hours, temps warm and then when precip resumes its light and non-accumulating. 850 track is way too close for us along with the 500 track.......need everything to shift 50-100 miles SE in a hurry.....my guess is we are toast at 0z Who's "we"? Are you on the coast or in SNJ? The western trend is good for most of eastern PA NW of I-95. I'm not sure why your so negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sorry for IMBY, but - Lehigh Valley? ABE is 1.09" liquid. Not all of that is snow. So... probably 6-12 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It just closes off to early. Another couple hours later and we would be close to 0z totals again. Also I was reading another board and a poster had a interesting point. If you look at the SST off the coast you can see a huge Thermal gradient. Won't the storm want to ride up that gradient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ABE is 1.09" liquid. Not all of that is snow. So... probably 6-12 or something like that. Not surprised to hear about the mixing. The GGEM didn't hold it all snow out here, either. I'm liking a compromise that sets the mix line up from about, say, Doylestown to Morristown. Yeah, that's the ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Today has been a slow rolling disaster on the models for us with regard to inland track, warmth, pingers and rain. Wow what a mess. agreed. Everything is trending warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm 10 miles WSW of PHL. The western trend sucks for SEPA and northern DE. My hope is that the Euro/GGEM are overdoing the phase and that H5 closes off not so early. Who's "we"? Are you on the coast or in SNJ? The western trend is good for most of eastern PA NW of I-95. I'm not sure why your so negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Who's "we"? Are you on the coast or in SNJ? The western trend is good for most of eastern PA NW of I-95. I'm not sure why your so negative.... naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ya know, I remember when 6-12 was a perfectly acceptable forecast range. What do you guys expect from us, miracles? Yep, and still do...it's reasonable. Usually Philly is at the low end and N &W the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Who's "we"? Are you on the coast or in SNJ? The western trend is good for most of eastern PA NW of I-95. I'm not sure why your so negative.... Kinda sucks we can't see other posters locations during "storm mode" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 naso much Was good up until this point. Any further and there will be p-type issues for NW as well. Yesterday the GFS and NAM were fringing the hell out of NW of I-95. There's so much IMBY analysis on these boards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 naso much Unless you are NW of Route 222, there will be mixing/slop issues if either the 12z GGEM or 12z Euro are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Was good up until this point. Any further and there will be p-type issues for NW as well. Yesterday the GFS and NAM were fringing the hell out of NW of I-95. There's so much IMBY analysis on these boards... Well, you do realize the latest Euro changes you over to non-snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, you do realize the latest Euro changes you over to non-snow, right? Haven't seen the maps, but from what I've heard by the play-by-play it bumped up qpf totals and the changeover is a close call for my area, right? I'd rather be close to a changeover with high qpf that deal with being fringed like some of the solutions that were advertised earlier today and yesterday. Obviously this scenario would be much worse for I-95 and SE though. It's just hard to interpret people's analysis when they don't have their location listed due to storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Two points today 1. The GFS continues to make little sense on this storm. the 500 mb set-up coupled with the low level warmth don't add up. EC makes a lot of sense and the 12Z EC was a west shift I was dreading would happen. 2. A lot of time spent in the warm sector should be dry-slotted pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Kinda sucks we can't see other posters locations during "storm mode" we should be glad we could still view threads, at the rate they seem to be getting hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Haven't seen the maps, but from what I've heard by the play-by-play it bumped up qpf totals and the changeover is a close call for my area, right? I'd rather be close to a changeover with high qpf that deal with being fringed like some of the solutions that were advertised earlier today and yesterday. Obviously this scenario would be much worse for I-95 and SE though. It's just hard to interpret people's analysis when they don't have their location listed due to storm mode. At TTN its drier. Not sure about elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 maybe i am feeling optimistic today, but I finally got a look at the ggem and it is still pretty darn good for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 maybe i am feeling optimistic today, but I finally got a look at the ggem and it is still pretty darn good for most of the area. If "NW of I-95" is "most of the area", then sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a cool feature, the hour by hour snow predictor. http://m.wgal.com/weather/new-check-the-latest-hourbyhour-snow-projections/24411612 That map is very cool. Looking at verbatim it looks like a 24/30 hour event with for TTN looks overwhelmingly snow. Ray: TTN is your specialty area. Does that look right to you? I am in Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 That map is very cool. Looking at verbatim it looks like a 24/30 hour event with for TTN looks overwhelmingly snow. Ray: TTN is your specialty area. Does that look right to you? I am in Hamilton. I'm not even going to look at it. Its a shiny toy for TV viewers. Not to be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If "NW of I-95" is "most of the area", then sure. it's even a pretty good hit in the I-95 corridor, although agreed not the amounts talked about yesterday. looks like about 20mm of it falls as snow, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At TTN its drier. Not sure about elsewhere. Ah ok. I'm actually in Collegeville PA (Central Montomery County) right now. So I'm less worried about mixing... Nevertheless, I'm optimistic about this one. Looks to me like a qpf bomb with limited mixing issues for NW of I-95. I think that 20 miles on either side of I-95 is going to be the battleground for serious mixing issues. I'm buying into the amped solution. I don't think this comes much more west, but I think that the CMC and EURO have had an excellent handle on this system and have been very consistent. The NAM and GFS have been all over the place, I especially don't get all the love for the NAM on this system. I think those wishing for a coastal crusher for this storm are grasping for straws... We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 maybe i am feeling optimistic today, but I finally got a look at the ggem and it is still pretty darn good for most of the area. Crushes my backyard in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ya know, I remember when 6-12 was a perfectly acceptable forecast range. What do you guys expect from us, miracles? I wasn't criticizing you Ray, It was merely a comment on the uncertainty of the storm in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pulled this from the NYC forum. EDIT: Seems generous from looking at the maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 we should be glad we could still view threads, at the rate they seem to be getting hit. True but I can't believe the text (location) would put that much more stress on the server if that is the reason. Either way, thanks to the admins glad the site is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pulled this from the NYC forum. EDIT: Seems generous from looking at the maps.. I think it includes potential snow from Saturday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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