Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro likely overdone with warming....would wait for ens and the means before cancelling the storm for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 please God, make this storm end fairly early Thursday night! I have a flight coming into Newark at 5PM on Friday. Hopefully I will be able to keep that slot........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Unfortunately larger and deeper storms usually have one last west shift. Going to be an interesting next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1.44" liquid. I wouldn't bank on good ratios in this one. Looks like bullseye with QPF is central maryland into south central PA and Harrisburg close to 2", drops off a bit NE toward lehigh valley this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Philly riding the snow/mix line, N&W burbs get crushed Allentown sitting pretty this run ...long way to go About half the stuff that falls at PHL is mix/rain, maybe a little more snow than rain/mix depending on how fast the 850s climb positive as it approaches how fast they crash down negative as the storm departs. Certainly a great run for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I guess this will be hyped on FB / Twitt soon if not already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Question? How do the models predict the temps? It seems impossible...so much snow hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I guess this will be hyped on FB / Twitt soon if not already. TWC kinda going nuts currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ABE: 1.44" RDG: 1.59" Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Question? How do the models predict the temps? It seems impossible...so much snow hanging around. Well, for one, what happens aloft has NOTHING to do with the surface snow-pack, temp wise. There was a 1996 event I'll never forget: Jim Cantore spent the morning saying that the high snow pack in the wake of the Blizzard of 96 would prevent a changeover in Philly. Philly ended up changing to rain after just a couple inches. The heavy snow was near Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, for one, what happens aloft has NOTHING to do with the surface snow-pack, temp wise. There was a 1996 event I'll never forget: Jim Cantore spent the morning saying that the high snow pack in the wake of the Blizzard of 96 would prevent a changeover in Philly. Philly ended up changing to rain after just a couple inches. The heavy snow was near Harrisburg. Ok...gotcha. I always wondered? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, for one, what happens aloft has NOTHING to do with the surface snow-pack, temp wise. There was a 1996 event I'll never forget: Jim Cantore spent the morning saying that the high snow pack in the wake of the Blizzard of 96 would prevent a changeover in Philly. Philly ended up changing to rain after just a couple inches. The heavy snow was near Harrisburg. I was in Sommerville working for that storm. Could not travel south on RT206 due to flooding. Had to go north to RT 202 and down 31. I think I remember some lightning with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was in Sommerville working for that storm. Could not travel south on RT206 due to flooding. Had to go north to RT 202 and down 31. I think I remember some lightning with that storm. I was in Harrisburg for that storm. During the height of the storm, we had 3" in 1 hour and 11.6" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM already stronger at 45 compared to 12z. and wow...the forums are loadin slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow was not expecting a WSW this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 328 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 ...POTENT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK... DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-110430- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0006.140213T0000Z-140214T0600Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER... KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN... LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 328 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...THIS WATCH INCLUDES FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS MOSTLY SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER TO A SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MIX DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL IMPACTS...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES IF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR BY THE TIME WINDS INCREASE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z NAM absolutely destroys the Philly metro area. Sharp cutoff near the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jesus H Christ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is amazing, but its 60 hours out, means little, too bad lol....Dream run for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 By all accounts reading the MA forum this is a colder precip-loaded bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakery Boy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can anyone post a link to the 18z NAM? Or possibly let me know how the run shows up for SW NJ (Sewell, NJ). Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can anyone post a link to the 18z NAM? Or possibly let me know how the run shows up for SW NJ (Sewell, NJ). Thank you.bullseye? And not finished the ccb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakery Boy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That works for me. I am no expert by any means so I am not sure how much this holds true 2+ days out but I will take it. Thank you RW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the NAM hasn't crashed the server yet... btw, a new weather briefing package would be nice...(either OKX or PHL...or both) since mass hysteria is already starting to build. (milk and bread...milk and bread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The storm is on our doorstep in like 48 hours too..... bullseye? And not finished the ccb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mount Holly NWS just updated their maps... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 where are they getting that much ice from? I thought our main problem was the surface starts to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 where are they getting that much ice from? I thought our main problem was the surface starts to warm up. No, 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z NAM aside (I look at anything more than 48 hours out on the 18z NAM as comic relief), this looks to be a heck of a storm for at least part (if not a good chunk) of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS strikes me as odd. I simply don't think it has a handle on the southern portion of this storm. Beyond that, I find it incredulous that a system that size wouldn't be drawn westward as it deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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