JC-CT Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I find it unreal how there has been so many definitive statements this morning about this storm. From it won't snow at the immediate coast, accept it and move on ..to the is a slop storm bc we have model consensus. Are you all for real???? This storm is many days from now. This storm could be a rain storm, a snow storm, a slop storm or maybe there's no storm. Has everyone not learned anything this winter?? The long and medium ranges have been highly inaccurate and the storms have been making major trends even inside 48 hrs. I find the majority of posts over the last 24 hrs disturbing. A few of these posts are coming from good posters too.I agree with your post academically; however, I am trying to think of a rain storm progged in the med range this winter that didn't verify. Maybe there were one or two, but the "good" posters writing this one off are probably basing it on the experience so far of winter 2013-14 cutter-fest prior to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 nothing is defintive, but look @ the players on the field. When you put the modelology aside, and starting doing the meteorology, you can see this won't be an all snow event for some people in the region. Poort antedecent airmass, Great Lakes low, sloppy SLP.....Also the players on the field in the long range last week showed a big storm possible on the coast this weekend...not just speaking on the models but meteorlogically. We had a 50/50 low in a good spot with confluence which would shove the disturbance underneath , blocking over the Davis straits, a pna spike, a split flow that looked favorable, and a trough in a good position.Look what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 oh I agree meteorologically. And as modeled right now this can't be argued. We are 6 days out. You sir are a great poster so why do you buy that the players on the field will 100% be in the locations the models have them currently? Also the players on the field in the long range last week showed a big storm possible on the coast this weekend...not just speaking on the models but meteorlogically. We had a 50/50 low in a good spot with confluence which would shove the disturbance underneath , blocking over the Davis straits, a pna spike, a split flow that looked favorable, and a trough in a good position. Look what happened valid points....this still has time to trend better....or even worse. Climatology says inland snows coastal rain with the track the ggem is showing for example but other factors like the confluence pulling the hp away argues for a warmer solution that we hadn't seen while the -epo was raging which we lost or are in the process of losing. Different pattern different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 valid points....this still has time to trend better....or even worse. Climatology says inland snows coastal rain with the track the ggem is showing for example but other factors like the confluence pulling the hp away argues for a warmer solution that we hadn't seen while the -epo was raging which we lost or are in the process of losing. Different pattern different results. I'm not arguing what any model is showing now bc this basically has a very small chance at being a snow storm all the way to the coast as modeled currently with the players that we see on the field. I was just stating how the players can drastically change so all solutions are plausible at this point including a non storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 wth..you are better than this. Also you could be right...but it's Feb 8th in the morning...why would you say something so ridiculous and definitive? A day and a half ago we said flurries now we might be getting a few inches tomorrow night. How can anyone definitively know 5 days out what's going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 He didn't give up..He said this is a paste bomb inland and rain for the coast so definitely that I was shocked Technically speaking a "paste bomb" is 12 + inches. 4-8 is a run of the mill storm inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS is just a mess. Terrible setup for the area. It still shows a storm signal so that's the positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS is just a mess. Terrible setup for the area. It still shows a storm signal so that's the positive. Euro way to go with southern storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the GFS for the coast. Miller B on this run. Low goes right over NYC. The storm signal is still there so that's good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs is a monster rain producer for most even inland doesn't do very well....unless u like slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice rainstorm on the GFS for the coast. Miller B on this run. Low goes right over NYC. The storm signal is still there so that's good at this point. So are you saying no snow at the coast or snow to rain at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So are you saying no snow at the coast or snow to rain at some point? This run has all rain for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FYI. That should have read 120 vs 132. But it's still west of the gfs. Don't know if it's a great set up but think it's just too far to worry. The euro ensembles look better and let's see if the op looks the same at 1 This run has all rain for our area.Relax. Look at the gfs at 120. See the northern feature almost to MN. Now look at the euro at 132 Same feature it's 200 miles west. Thst slp mucks the whole pic up. Go with the Euro ensembles. The gfs mayb top fast with that piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Relax. Look at the gfs at 120. See the northern feature almost to MN. Now look at the euro at 108. Same feature it's 200 miles west. Thst slp mucks the whole pic up. Go with the Euro ensembles. The gfs mayb top fast with that piece If we can get rid of that low north of the lakes and replace it with that high coming down behind it, we will be good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If we can get rid of that low north of the lakes and replace it with that high coming down behind it, we will be good to go. FYI. That should have read 120 vs 132. But it's still west of the gfs. Don't know if it's a great set up but think it's just too far to worry. The euro ensembles look better and let's see if the op looks the same at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FYI. That should have read 120 vs 132. But it's still west of the gfs. Don't know if it's a great set up but think it's just too far to worry. The euro ensembles look better and let's see if the op looks the same at 1 What does the Euro ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What does the Euro ensembles look like?OBX to cc 850s minus 1 I can't see precip Op was warm east of I 95 because precip was light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FYI. That should have read 120 vs 132. But it's still west of the gfs. Don't know if it's a great set up but think it's just too far to worry. The euro ensembles look better and let's see if the op looks the same at 1 Couldn't the argument be made that GFS would have the better handle on the northern stream system that's sitting over the GL? Do you have the new GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Gfs is a monster rain producer for most even inland doesn't do very well....unless u like slop There's barely 0.75" of QPF, how is that a monster rain producer? If would be a 6-8" storm is it were all snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's about an inch of rain on the 12z GFS. Nothing to write home about. The GFS is nearly shearing out the first vort and focusing on the second northern stream piece which drops down and helps to really amplify the trough. Here's why I'm not buying it, the shortwaves involeved are still way out in the Pacific in a very poorly sampled area. We won't know the strength of the energy until it makes it onshore. Currently that's modeled to be weak, but the trend this year has been for the southern stream to end up stronger than modeled in the medium range. End result is that I expect quite a dynamic bomb, but the track may be to close for the coast to produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GGEM at 144. East of the GFS. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Couldn't find a vendor thread for this storm so I will post here....DT says toss the gfs and don't follow it at all right now for this storm! Says the euro ens have a better handle which I completely agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Also the players on the field in the long range last week showed a big storm possible on the coast this weekend...not just speaking on the models but meteorlogically. We had a 50/50 low in a good spot with confluence which would shove the disturbance underneath , blocking over the Davis straits, a pna spike, a split flow that looked favorable, and a trough in a good position. Look what happened lol, not even close. I just find it funny that JB or some other knucklehead can call a snowstorm a week out and everyone (well, just the weenies) goes along with it, giving all the reasons for it. I give some sound logic on what to expect (not a FORECAST) and people reply "its 6 days out", " look what happened last week" etc.... it became apparent that the hype from last week for this weekend non storm was running out of juice the moment it started. If you can't see that this has slop storm written over it for some people, than i feel bad for you. Not every storm is going to be all snow/ prefect BM track. The big picture here is that the PV has relaxed, the blocking isn't strong enough, and the somewhat slower flow next week (compared to this weekend) would allow some type of p-type issues, possibly a warm solution. Look at the big picture, not the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 lol, not even close. I just find it funny that JB or some other knucklehead can call a snowstorm a week out and everyone (well, just the weenies) goes along with it, giving all the reasons for it. I give some sound logic on what to expect (not a FORECAST) and people reply "its 6 days out", " look what happened last week" etc.... it became apparent that the hype from last week for this weekend non storm was running out of juice the moment it started. If you can't see that this has slop storm written over it for some people, than i feel bad for you. Not every storm is going to be all snow/ prefect BM track. The big picture here is that the PV has relaxed, the blocking isn't strong enough, and the somewhat slower flow next week (compared to this weekend) would allow some type of p-type issues, possibly a warm solution. Look at the big picture, not the models. Did I say anything about an all snow BM track? I love snow but never wish cast or say this has to trend in any direction. There were many people including mets (and forget JB...I'd listen to Earthlight 1000 times before JB...I auto toss him like the NAM- unless the NAM is within consensus) who said this was a classic snow storm pattern last week for this weekend. I never jumped on the bandwagon bc it was too far out and we have seen things change way too often in the medium to long range. Now I'm rooting for a snowstorm or an ots solution just to prove what a model shows today probably won't be the outcome. You really haven't been paying attention to what I have been saying in this thread just by looking at your response above. The range the models are in right now (6-10 day period) has not verified in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And what you quoted me saying were long range solutions that did change in the medium range to very unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Did I say anything about an all snow BM track? I love snow but never wish cast or say this has to trend in any direction. There were many people including mets (and forget JB...I'd listen to Earthlight 1000 times before JB...I auto toss him like the NAM- unless the NAM is within consensus) who said this was a classic snow storm pattern last week for this weekend. I never jumped on the bandwagon bc it was too far out and we have seen things change way too often in the medium to long range. Now I'm rooting for a snowstorm or an ots solution just to prove what a model shows today probably won't be the outcome. You really haven't been paying attention to what I have been saying in this thread just by looking at your response above. The range the models are in right now (6-10 day period) has not verified in a while. most of that wasn't directed at you personally. More or less a rant from the BS on here. very few provide scientific reasoning for their thoughts, its just gets tiresome. I'm not forecasting anything at this juncture. I just believe this is leaning more towards a slop fest than an all snow or all rain event. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ukie has a sub 1000 low east of the Del Marva at hour120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 most of that wasn't directed at you personally. More or less a rant from the BS on here. very few provide scientific reasoning for their thoughts, its just gets tiresome. I'm not forecasting anything at this juncture. I just believe this is leaning more towards a slop fest than an all snow or all rain event. Just my $.02 I agree with your analysis on your predicted outcome of this storm and your reasonings are pretty good. Towards middle-end of february it looks like the depth and longevity of the cold really starts to diminish and me personally i think the window of us seeing a big east coast snowstorm is shrinking fast once past next week IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Ukie looks delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GGEM is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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