96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ugh at 39. The ZR factor in NW NJ is starting to concern me. Hoping is IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i'm worried about this being a problem after the bulk of the precip ends...From Upton: PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THERE WILL STILL BETHE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS CONTINUETO COOL WITH THE FLOW BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH LOW LEVEL COLDAIR ADVECTION. DRY AIR INTRUSION COMES RIGHT THROUGH THE REGIONBEHIND THE LOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA AT 500MBWITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ELIMINATE MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -30DEGREE C REGION AND DEPRIVE THE ATMOSPHERE OF ICE NUCLEI...LEAVINGTHE FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE SATURATED. THECOLUMN IS SHORTER NEAR THE COAST...HENCE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLETHERE...AND TALLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HENCE SNOW THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rgem looks to have the coastal head NNE and hug the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM has 13mm of snow in NYC...6-7mm of rain and 1-2mm as freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 gfs is warmer than 18z more so at 850s than the surface - its warmer than the nam too and slower with the precip, bad run for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM has 13mm of snow in NYC...6-7mm of rain and 1-2mm as freezing rain.I'll take that. Less ice is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM has 13mm of snow in NYC...6-7mm of rain and 1-2mm as freezing rain. Would you happen to have an estimate for HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nam, rgem and gfs all have ticked warmer tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is 1.1 QPF for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 00Z GFS is slightly warmer. I'm pretty sure it's raining over NE NJ/NYC/LI from HR 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I dunno. I get the sense that the NAM/GFS are underplaying the cold. The fact that the RGEM ticked warmer does raise an eyebrow. Such major implications with 'ticks' on a storm like this. The Euro becomes more important this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS shows a mix bag of precip but of course Wx Bell shows 5"+ lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hopefully it continues to trend warmer so no ice. The theme has been for storms to tick NW as we get closer. Never been a fan of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 00Z GFS is slightly warmer. I'm pretty sure it's raining over NE NJ/NYC/LI from HR 39. Yeah I would think this run is much less snow than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wonder if the snowpack will decrease the temp by a few degrees, with what the model shows. Although, we do have 36 hours to focus on this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I dunno. I get the sense that the NAM/GFS are underplaying the cold. The fact that the RGEM ticked warmer does raise an eyebrow. Such major implications with 'ticks' on a storm like this. The Euro becomes more important this evening... these type events are usually predictable for inland areas, snow, to sleet to zr to drr of frzdr. snow comes in faster than modeled and changeover faster than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It still shows 6 for all of NNJ on the snowmap, melting to about 2 by the end of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 North of I-287 we get plastered then over to ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 these type events are usually predictable for inland areas, snow, to sleet to zr to drr of frzdr. snow comes in faster than modeled and changeover faster than modeled Good local knowledge. Still newer to this area, but storms like 12/26/12 were exactly what you just said. Just dreading a prolonged ZR. Hate that and don't have a generator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Even the NAM is colder than the GFS at HR 39. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It still shows 6 for all of NNJ on the snowmap, melting to about 2 by the end of the storm 6" melting to 2"? Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The strange thing about this run is that the confluence is stronger on the 00Z GFS, there's even a quicker transfer and a more flattened SE Ridge, yet it's warmer than the 00Z NAM? Very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The strange thing about this run is that the heights along the EC is lower on the 00Z GFS. There's even a quicker transfer and a more flattened SE Ridge, yet it's warmer than the 00Z NAM? Very strange. I'm guessing it may be seeing the mid level WAA that I've been playing up, surface temps are gonna be hard to move up regardless of what models show but the mid levels are bound to warm faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ914 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014........LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK..LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE LOW LIFTING NE TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED THE TREND AS NOTED BY THELAST SHIFT OF TENDING COLDER IN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THUSSNOWIER. THE NAM IS STILL HOLDING ON TO A DEEP WARM LAYER EVEN ASFAR NW AS THE POCONOS. THE REASON FOR THIS DISCREPANCY IS THAT THENAM ALSO SHOWS THE DEEPEST AND MOST INTENSE SURFACE LOW...THUSSHOWING STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAYNIGHT. FOR NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...AND HAVE KEPT THEFORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS INMIND...EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW FROM RDG UP TO ABE TO ANDOVER NJ.ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER TODAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT BOUNDARYLAYER TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZINGBEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE DELAWARERIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NJ...EXPECT SN INITIALLY...WITH ATRANSITION PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET...BEFORE SWITCHING TO ALL RAINWEDNESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...QPF VALUESWITH THIS EVENT ARE QUITE HIGH...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH FOR MOSTLOCATIONS. THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVELON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...KEEPINGMOISTURE ADVECTION GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION PERIOD.SOURCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't care what nam shows for temps mos thinks we are 35/27 when snow starts and stay 35 the entire time not gonna happen with a wind that is 030-050 the entire event, wind directions on the numerical guidance tonight are more NE than they were on 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm guessing it may be seeing the mid level WAA that I've been playing up, surface temps are gonna be hard to move up regardless of what models show but the mid levels are bound to warm faster But temps are pretty borderline to begin with near the coast..its not like we're low to mid 20s when precip breaks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But temps are pretty borderline to begin with near the coast..its not like we're low to mid 20s when precip breaks out We will probably wet bulb down to 28-30 once precip starts also I'm not sure how warm we will get tomorrow with high clouds increasing and snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Storms like these very frequently trend north at the end, so no surprise here. People near the coast have to hope for the initial slug of precip overperforming and holding back the warm air as long as possible. Inland, hopefully the precip after snow falls as sleet and not freezing rain (unless an icestorm is what you want). I still think with a northeast wind on snowcovered ground it will be hard to get many people above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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