monmouthcounty11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A lot of spread on the precip types on the SREFs, this is for KNYC, more frozen than 15z if you compare: Same for EWR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I guess its NAM time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is definitely a hair warmer and more amplified through 30 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM looks warmer out to 31 ... waiting for evaporational cooling?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yup. Cools back down at 32... Nice snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM looks warmer out to 31 ... waiting for evaporational cooling??I don't see much in the way of evaporational cooling imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @HR 31: The 850s 0C line crashes as the secondary forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 coastal slightly stronger this run keeping 850s a little more south @ 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ends up about the same for the most important frame through 33 hours. Heavier precipitation and the 850 0c is almost exactly identical to 18z. A bit warmer at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow. Looks great at 33, even for NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @ 36 850s move north of nyc, still below freezing at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yup. Cools back down at 32... Nice snows.Question: the temperatures cool as the secondary takes over, that's not necessarily evaporational cooling or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heavy precip through 36 hours and the mid level warm layer blows through...but anywhere west of the city temps are actually dropping at that time. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At HR 36, it sleets heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM keeps the surface below 0 here in Philly through 36, no way I buy thatm probably set up shop a bit farther N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 OPC 48hr surface map....man, am I dizzy step back and take a good hard look at the big picture A_48hrbw.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml 960mb LP backing into Greenland Weekend Log Jam??? from your whistle, to whoever's... well you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Someone is pasting to 6" with this storm...this is the radar with the 850 0c still down near Trenton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have an awfully bad feeling about this one. The city might be able to handle .25"-.50" ice but the suburbs where power lines are exposed is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Terrible run for LI. 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Major Ice Storm from HR 36 to HR 42 from I-95 at NYC and points N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Weird at 42 the primary actually catches up to the secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm starting to fear the ice setup with this since historically low level cold always holds longer than modeled, so it could be a few degrees colder at the surface than shown. This will especially be true for those away from urban locales. Like Forky said as long as that secondary forms to our south, then we'll stay below freezing. The Nam could still be a bit funky as it usually tends to be so I'm looking at more reliable models like the gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Terrible run for LI. 33 and rain Some how it prints out 6" on snow on wb snow map lol...so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Weird at 42 the primary actually catches up to the secondary Which explains the surface warming up to 35F for NYC and the surrounding suburbs from HR 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some how it prints out 6" on snow on wb snow map lol...so bad What does it show for west Monmouth cty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some how it prints out 6" on snow on wb snow map lol...so bad Nam has been on the warm side with this storm...lets see the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hour 33 supports 4- 6 inches of snow from Philly to KNYC to MC 850`s Minus -2 AT Philly to MC to -4 at KNYC The surface is 28 - 30 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see if they go with just blanket winter storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see if they go with just blanket winter storm warnings. This will be a tough forecast, any last minute shifts will make a big difference in precip types and amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hour 33 supports 4- 6 inches of snow from Philly to KNYC to MC 850`s Minus -2 AT Philly to MC to -4 at KNYC The surface is 28 - 30 . My map is different on stormvista, at 33hours the 850 line is way north of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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