12z models 12/19

[earthlight]

156 hrs..for those who want to save it.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

i love weather porn lol

not a good way to start back in model threads

[WhiteoutWX]

snow to slop back to snow

Looks like alot of rain for us. Surface temps warm during the heart of the event ...

Also 850 low goes north of us. DT called this yesterday, rain for RIC.

[Alpha5]

Just about as good as it gets for NYC

anyone see the VV's? Insane, amazing dynamics for NYC

[joey]

156 hrs..for those who want to save it.

If that 700 low gets any further west, there could be some serious dryslotting issues for IMMEDIATE coastline. Just something to keep an eye out for.

[mitchnick]

some good news around VA and DCA

thicknesses stay low during critical period when Low traveling in VA thanks to northern stream phasing

http://www.nco.ncep....p120138_l.shtml

[winter_warlock]

some good news around VA and DCA

thicknesses stay low during critical period when Low traveling in VA thanks to northern stream phasing

http://www.nco.ncep....p120138_l.shtml

looks like all snow from dc, central va north

[Jefflaw77]

There is decent backlash snow with this type of track etc.. (I think - PLEASE CORRECT ME, if I am Wrong..) In any event, is this a 18+ hour event based upon what you are seeing? This seems really big NYC/Long Island.... What are the temps based upon what you are seeing?

156 hrs..for those who want to save it.

[WxUSAF]

The 850mb low tracks almost directly overhead of DC somewhere between 138 and 144hrs. That typically is a sign of precip mixing/changing to rain or ice. Despite that, it keeps the temps cold throughout the column at least for 138 and 144. Might have the rain/mix line creep up to the Potomac for a time as the low passes by, though.

[clskinsfan]

Perfect track to bury everybody. Slight shift west and you could have mixing issues on the coast. As modeled though crushing snow storm.

[Bob Chill]

If that 700 low gets any further west, there could be some serious dryslotting issues for IMMEDIATE coastline. Just something to keep an eye out for.

Regardless of re-development, dryslotting, etc, it still looks good for accumulating snows on the front side. Accumulating snow on Xmas is a present that no money can buy (unless you're Midlo...lol). An EC monster would be awesome but I'll take the front end thump and smile even if we get dryslotted or the system deepens too far off the coast.

[mitchnick]

The 850mb low tracks almost directly overhead of DC somewhere between 138 and 144hrs. That typically is a sign of precip mixing/changing to rain or ice. Despite that, it keeps the temps cold throughout the column at least for 138 and 144. Might have the rain/mix line creep up to the Potomac for a time as the low passes by, though.

it would be close, but I think DCA would stay snow this run per map and decent uvv's fighting off the warmth

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_850120138_l.shtml

700mb map

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_700120138_l.shtml

[usedtobe]

this could throw a monkey wrench into it

It even worries me for mby. I'd like ot see the 850 reform a little quicker a little farther to the south and east.

You are getting wise in your old age.

[usedtobe]

The 850mb low tracks almost directly overhead of DC somewhere between 138 and 144hrs. That typically is a sign of precip mixing/changing to rain or ice. Despite that, it keeps the temps cold throughout the column at least for 138 and 144. Might have the rain/mix line creep up to the Potomac for a time as the low passes by, though.

I don't like the 850 low position it would argue for mixing issues before turning back to snow.

[mitchnick]

I don't like the 850 low position it would argue for mixing issues before turning back to snow.

Wes, don't thicknesses as proged suggest a cold enough column?

http://www.nco.ncep....p120138_l.shtml

EDIT: for say DCA on north?

[Alpha5]

Any shot that the Euro will come in somewhat close to this??

0z Euro ensembles were more GFS like with the OP being relatively weak and south....phasing issues

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

It even worries me for mby. I'd like ot see the 850 reform a little quicker a little farther to the south and east.

Was thinking the same thing...a little wary of the 850 position, but maybe in the end it won't be too bad if the evolution happens as depicted (he said hopefully!)?

[clskinsfan]

I don't like the 850 low position it would argue for mixing issues before turning back to snow.

It's trying to show a warm push at 138. But the storm bombs. Those of us from NOVA/ DC kind of know to expect some mixing in these storms though.

[ptb127]

Ratios would probably be 12:1 or maybe even a little higher further inland..look for the -8 isotherm at 850 for best snow growth and ratios.. runs right through E PA.

[Dr No]

Anyone a bit concerned that it ends up further north in time? We need the cyclops to be far enough south to guide the storm ENE, then cause it to reform near the outer banks/capes.

If the cyclops is too far north/weaker, the storm will be in the OV- whats to keep it south? Solutions like this GFS make me leary of any northern stream phasing. Twice bitten, once shy I guess.

[winterymix]

It's trying to show a warm push at 138. But the storm bombs. Those of us from NOVA/ DC kind of know to expect some mixing in these storms though.

It looks A-OK to me. The 850 mb low trundles just barely ESE across DC and so the WAA at that

level is quickly cut off. For NVA, DC, CMD, there could be some sleet mixing in but still, this looks

like 8+ inches for a wide area just west and NW of I-95 even with a period of sleet.

[ptb127]

QPF totals

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_168m.gif

[WxUSAF]

I don't like the 850 low position it would argue for mixing issues before turning back to snow.

Agree. DC would be on the border of snow-mix/rain-snow and the all snow. Still should be a few inches ahead of any changeover and several more after.

[Guest someguy]

It even worries me for mby. I'd like ot see the 850 reform a little quicker a little farther to the south and east.

You are getting wise in your old age.

yeah the 850 Low isnt ideal for VA .. made this point last night

[Guest someguy]

It looks A-OK to me. The 850 mb low trundles just barely ESE across DC and so the WAA at that

level is quickly cut off. For NVA, DC, CMD, there could be some sleet mixing in but still, this looks

like 8+ inches for a wide area just west and NW of I-95 even with a period of sleet.

You are assuming the 12Z and 0z GFS decpiction as well as the 12z and 0z Saturday GFS operational runs are valid

[LVblizzard]

What's this now, 7, 8, 9 straight runs with an east coast bomb on the GFS? That's amazing. It also has support from the Euro and UKMET so this is definitely our best threat of the winter so far.

[TowsonWeather]

yeah the 850 Low isnt ideal for VA .. made this point last night

/Agree.

I am more than a little worried about this thing continuing to drift north (from a MD/VA perspective, that is).

[Edge Weather]

Cyclops?

Anyone a bit concerned that it ends up further north in time? We need the cyclops to be far enough south to guide the storm ENE, then cause it to reform near the outer banks/capes.

If the cyclops is too far north/weaker, the storm will be in the OV- whats to keep it south? Solutions like this GFS make me leary of any northern stream phasing. Twice bitten, once shy I guess.

[stormtracker]

Anyone a bit concerned that it ends up further north in time? We need the cyclops to be far enough south to guide the storm ENE, then cause it to reform near the outer banks/capes.

If the cyclops is too far north/weaker, the storm will be in the OV- whats to keep it south?

Why do we care about where a Roman mythical one eyed creature is?

[Guest someguy]

yeah ... I will as a screen shot so that the next time Rich is on the radio show and says

"I dont see why the GFS has bad a rep"

I can refer hiom to this map

156 hrs..for those who want to save it.