12z models 12/19

[Ridingtime]

Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None .

Mkay, I sense that you're not positive about this storm happening. But I'd like to understand better why such extreme and rare consistency on the GFS is not fascinating to you. Also, doesn't the fact that the Euro shows some similarity to at least the upper level H5 set up do anything to make you believe the GFS is onto something?

[SACRUS]

Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None .

GGEM' been consistently missing. ECM a bit in the middle. Lets see where or if it trends in either direction.

[IsentropicLift]

Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None .

me neither....the gfs has shown consistency for a few days in a row just to loose it as the system approaches. I'll be impressed when the euro and gfs are in good agreement on a solution, and whatever that might be. As long as their are noticable differences I would take the euro any day over the gfs. What do the gfs ensembles look like?

[Guest someguy]

Lots more wiggle room with this system. Even a non-phased system still seems to provide some snow.

correct

[afvet89]

http://204.2.104.196...-SNOW_144HR.gif new snowmap for GFS

[Guest someguy]

Mkay, I sense that you're not positive about this storm happening. But I'd like to understand better why such extreme and rare consistency on the GFS is not fascinating to you. Also, doesn't the fact that the Euro shows some similarity to at least the upper level H5 set up do anything to make you believe the GFS is onto something?

see edited post above

[Ridingtime]

Agreed Dave. GFS was consistently wrong for several (6-7?) consecutive runs with the current storm. Ens mean looks good though and now we wait for the Euro.

The GFS showed more consistently a non-storm than a storm for this weekend. Also, every model truly sucked with the storm IMO.

[A-L-E-X]

at 500 MB the 12z CMC is showing that is a Low that is going to scott off the coast and NOT Bomb out close enough to bring back the blizzard of 78

The ridge axis over the Rockies ...on all then Model... is in My opinion too far east for the BOMB to occur close enough to the coast as the

last several runs of the operational GFS insists on showing

DT seems to agree with Don..... that while a moderate snow is likely to occur in this pattern, a KU bomb is highly unlikely. IOW, maybe 3-6" or 4-8" not 10 plus inches. Time will tell of course.

[Ridingtime]

see edited post above

Thanks, understood. If you're right, it is certainly frustrating that when we finally get a ridge it ends up being too far east for good NE storm development. Mind clarifying also if you are referring to just your backyard, or every one along the east coast?

[Atlas]

Yes if you do recall the GFS had a non-storm for most of its model runs on todays storm, it only had a storm for a few model runs at around 114-126 hours.

[afvet89]

Anyone know what DT is saying with this storm, whats his latest thoughts?

[Ridingtime]

Anyone know what DT is saying with this storm, whats his latest thoughts?

Just read through this thread. He isn't excited yet about a coastal bomb, thinks ridge axis is too east over the rockies.

DT=someguy btw

[Guest someguy]

. What do the gfs ensembles look like?

the 6z GFS ENSEMBLE shwos NOTHING like the 6z operartional GFS ...

IT shows a Low racing out to sea as it deepens JUST like the 0z EURO

6z

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS156.gif

the 0z GFS ENSEMBLE shwos NOTHING like the 0z operartional GFS ...

IT shows a Low racing out to sea as it deepens JUST like the 0z EURO

0Z

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS168.gif

[Dr No]

the 6z GFS ENSEMBLE shwos NOTHING like the 6z operartional GFS ...

IT shows a Low racing out to sea as it deepens JUST like the 0z EURO

6z

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS156.gif

the 0z GFS ENSEMBLE shwos NOTHING like the 0z operartional GFS ...

IT shows a Low racing out to sea as it deepens JUST like the 0z EURO

0Z

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif

12Z Ensemble mean is a little bit more robust, but not like the OP.

[LongIslandWx]

DT seems to agree with Don..... that while a moderate snow is likely to occur in this pattern, a KU bomb is highly unlikely. IOW, maybe 3-6" or 4-8" not 10 plus inches. Time will tell of course.

I agree. I don't understand how the flow slows to the degree that the 12z GFS has shown to produce the monster solution that is being discussed here. Yes, it seems like we have a stronger shortwave traversing the country, but we'll see how it evolves.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

12Z Ensemble mean is a little bit more robust, but not like the OP.

and way east of the OP

[A-L-E-X]

I agree. I don't understand how the flow slows to the degree that the 12z GFS has shown to produce the monster solution that is being discussed here. Yes, it seems like we have a stronger shortwave traversing the country, but we'll see how it evolves.

Yes, the famous "bowling ball" scenario we've been talking about in the regional subforums for a couple of days.

[VAsnowlvr82]

But even if their is no phase a stronger shortwave would translate to more snow for the mid atlantic correct?

I agree. I don't understand how the flow slows to the degree that the 12z GFS has shown to produce the monster solution that is being discussed here. Yes, it seems like we have a stronger shortwave traversing the country, but we'll see how it evolves.

[weathafella]

The GFS showed more consistently a non-storm than a storm for this weekend. Also, every model truly sucked with the storm IMO.

Not really but I guess it depends on where you are located. I agree all models have been atrocious all the way up to the event but that doesn't change the fact that the GFS is by and large tremendously inferior to the Euro.

[Southland Wx]

Agree on the Rocky ridge axis issues....ensemble is on the Divide and through C Wyoming...operational is in Utah and W Wyoming. I'd need to see the OP be further west with the ridge axis before I got too excited for this. The fact that the ensemble is even further east with it isn't inspiring my confidence. That said, this is still a very favorable pattern, and just because the axis isn't setup ideally right now doesn't mean we won't get there. Not that difficult to swing a 75-150 mile shift west with the axis, especially given how much Pacific energy is likely polluting the model right now. But we'll have to see.

[Guest someguy]

But even if their is no phase a stronger shortwave would translate to more snow for the mid atlantic correct?

YES

I hope folks see that I am NOT arguing against ANY event....

I think there will be a wonderful xmas day / evening SNOW from RIC to southern Mass through the i-95 cities and near by areas

the OHIO valley will also see a good snow as well

something like --- 1 to 6" .... 2 to 8".....

[NJwinter23]

The ridge axis being too far east was the first alarm that jumped out to me looking at the recent gfs runs. At least we have a respectable ridge though which is more than we can say for this last no-show. Though I must ask, HM in his thread talked about shorter wavelengths with the blocking pattern in place and wondered how this plays in to the Chrsitmas event even if our ridge axis is too far east. Secondly, Dave you brought up what I thought was a good analog in Dec 5-6 2003. That was 3 weeks earlier in the winter which probably makes worlds of difference in terms of pattern wavelengths earlier in the season, but that ridge axis was also too far east and on the move as well with a trough crashing into the West coast.

http://www.meteo.psu...2003/us1205.php

[VAsnowlvr82]

Completely understand thanks for the response.

YES

I hope folks see that I am NOT arguing against ANY event....

I think there will be a wonderful xmas day / evening SNOW from RIC to southern Mass through the i-95 cities and near by areas

the OHIO valley will also see a good snow as well

something like --- 1 to 6" .... 2 to 8".....

[weatherweather]

any word on the ukie?

[IsentropicLift]

12z ecmwf?

[vinylfreak89]

I#m bothered by the way the GFS phases in the shortwave. Look at this current storm.... the initial shortwave seems to just fade out before the phase occurs.... we know how the GFS loves to jump on front runners and be too strong with them, so the fact it fades the initial shortwave is very disconcerting to me. if you don#t have that initial push the confluence becomes weaker and the wholet hing shifts east, ala euro. I#m interested to see what the 12Z runs of the euro brings, but the energy looks too disorganized to me. If this were last year, where everything seemed to work out I#d be less concerned, but our luck eventualy will run out.

[NJwinter23]

I also think the most encouraging part about the gfs runs is not really the bombing out it shows on the coast which could very well be just a fantasy, but the fact that it phases early and has a significant storm heading east from the Midwest in 100 hrs. Having the storm formed and heading east bodes well for areas (whether it be north or south who knows at this point) to at least see some accumulating light-moderate snow on Xmas day. It doesnt have to be an epic blizzard to produce accumulating snow in other words. Looking back on this last storm you got the feeling it was either gonna be all or nothing, and hence likely to be nothing.

[Guest someguy]

I also think the most encouraging part about the gfs runs is not really the bombing out it shows on the coast which could very well be just a fantasy, but the fact that it phases early and has a significant storm heading east from the Midwest in 100 hrs. Having the storm formed and heading east bodes well for areas (whether it be north or south who knows at this point) to at least see some accumulating light-moderate snow on Xmas day. It doesnt have to be an epic blizzard to produce accumulating snow in other words. Looking back on this last storm you got the feeling it was either gonna be all or nothing, and hence likely to be nothing.

GOOD POST

LETS GO EAGLES

[SteveB]

Yes if you do recall the GFS had a non-storm for most of its model runs on todays storm, it only had a storm for a few model runs at around 114-126 hours.

Incorrect....from 168 hours out it was showing a MECS for about 6 or 7 consecutive runs before losing it.

[kurtstack]

I also think the most encouraging part about the gfs runs is not really the bombing out it shows on the coast which could very well be just a fantasy, but the fact that it phases early and has a significant storm heading east from the Midwest in 100 hrs. Having the storm formed and heading east bodes well for areas (whether it be north or south who knows at this point) to at least see some accumulating light-moderate snow on Xmas day. It doesnt have to be an epic blizzard to produce accumulating snow in other words. Looking back on this last storm you got the feeling it was either gonna be all or nothing, and hence likely to be nothing.

Models are all suggesting a widespread accumulating snow is likely from the midwest all the way through the northeast for christmas eve/christmas. The only remaining debate at this point is the low probability high consequence bomb scenario. We won't have a clear picture on that until around mid week.