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February 2014 General Discussion


snowlover2

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So it looks like we're transitioning to a pattern similar to 2007-2008, where all it seems to take is a sneeze to blow up a snowstorm for the region. Models show a lot more potential behind the 3rd-5th system.

I'll take that any day over the Clipper train we've had.

If we do end up in a pattern like 07-08, then a 100" snowfall season is certainly possible. A lot of people forget that March 08 had 21" of snow.
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For DTW at 55.0"

 

1-3" tonight thru Tomorrow

5-7" Saturday

6-10" Tuesday/Wed

Another one next weekend???? 

 

12-20" by Feb 5th

 

seasons totals could be as high as 75" ( 67-75") this time next week. Inching closer to the record of 93" Detroit posters needs to cherish this winter, We may never experience another one like it. Considering it took 45 years to get a 12"+ in Detroit (1929-74). 

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Caplan sounding the alarms:

 

attachicon.gifcaplan.JPG

 

Which for what it's worth would be 20"+

 

That's crazy talk! Average snowfall for February here since 1999 has been 15.3". I could see that happening from what I can see on some models.

 

Skilling showed some awful cold lows for the 5th and 6th, which I hope don't come true.

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Probably a good 11-12" of snow on the ground now after today's 3.8".  With some additional snows possible later this week/upcoming weekend, and the lack of warmth should make for one hell of a snow pack by around the 10th.

 

Regarding today's snow I originally went with 4-6", and then bumped back to 3-4" a few nights ago.  Exact call was 3.1", so busted a bit high there. 

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Looking at the GFS it seems after the 9th about, the cold eases up. Bastardi was using the 93-94 analog and was saying will have a break around Valentines Day and after.

 

Day 10 - EURO. Definitely looking like milder times. 12z the 11th.

 

post-7389-0-56738200-1391302684_thumb.pn

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This kind of stinks, but hey, it's a record. I just came back from Fort Wayne and rain quickly changed to marshmallows started to accumulate about an hour ago.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
0722 PM EST SAT FEB 01 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FORT WAYNE...

THROUGH 7 PM EST A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.98 INCHES HAS FALLEN AT
FORT WAYNE TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.82 SET IN 1968.
THIS RECORD IS PRELIMIARY AS MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

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Looking at the GFS it seems after the 9th about, the cold eases up. Bastardi was using the 93-94 analog and was saying will have a break around Valentines Day and after.

 

Day 10 - EURO. Definitely looking like milder times. 12z the 11th.

 

attachicon.gifDay10Euro_020114.png

I don't see how his call for the eastern Great Lakes to average out 4 below normal Fahrenheit in February can vetify if that were to happen. The second week of February would have to see highs in the single digits, which I don't see happening.

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Point for tonight was around zero last time I looked.  Temps still hanging up there a bit due to some lingering clouds, so may stay above zero tonight.  Tomorrow night looks pretty cold though.  May make a run at -10 or so. 

 

Was surprised to see it dipped to -1 here this morning.  Temps must have really tanked toward sunrise.  Another subzero day in the kitty.

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