JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS.....Can't believe it.. saturday I was reading "dry and cold". And now this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 .5+ gets to eastern nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow beautiful run....if it tucks in just a little more it would be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 End result is still about the same for this area. 0.50"+ line to about the city. Rest of us 0.25"+ except southern NJ and Long Island which is all 0.50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow, what a crazy turn of events the last 24 hours. One day ago, I would have laughed if anyone told me that we'd be staring down a SECS for Tuesday. Great timing with this wave-there's no kicker behind it, no lead wave to steal from the developing low, it amplifies nicely and takes a track perfect for most of us as it deepens. The PV also gets out of the way enough to allow this to climb up the coast. Right now I'd say many of us will approach the amounts we saw on 1/2, maybe even exceed it to the northwest of the city. Looking like a 6-10" type event for the metro area and SE with helpful ratios on 0.5" or so liquid (RGEM though would be over a foot if it's right), maybe 4-6" 50 miles or more northwest of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 500mb and 700mb lows pass right over Long Island. This could still come further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs 4-6 western nj and 6-8 for nj urban area-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Per the GFS early afternoon start time. Height of the storm from around 6pm-6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I actually thought the surface was going to depict something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 End result is still about the same for this area. 0.50"+ line to about the city. Rest of us 0.25"+ except southern NJ and Long Island which is all 0.50"+. The GFS looked really close to being an RGEM type solution-it maxes out just a little too late and the heaviest snow is just offshore and later brushes Cape Cod. But that 500mb vort track is great for us and it looks very intense-this could be a fun event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Exact precipitation ignored, look at 42-48 hour charts. Mid level centers are in a nearly classic and textbook position for significant snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Qpf on the gfs and nam are now identical..0.49" at ewr and NYC Honestly the way you guys were talking I thought it was going to be 1.00"+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS.....Can't believe it.. saturday I was reading "dry and cold". And now this.. Told you so? Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another something behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I actually thought the surface was going to depict something better. With that 500mb vort track and intensity, it could end up more tucked in than the surface panel shows, more like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Oh my... I went to sleep last night and things were looking good but wow, they got even better this morning!!! This week is going to be very unproductive at work, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is one of those "the 500mb looks better than the surface" man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Qpf on the gfs and nam are now identical..0.49" at ewr and NYC Honestly the way you guys were talking I thought it was going to be 1.00"+ lol Ignore QPF... if you look at hr 42 you will understand the excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Told you so? Lol! And this is going to be the story during the next 2 weeks at least ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Eh run of the mills snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Told you so? Lol! Not to kiss your you know what... but you are just knocking it out of the park this winter man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Look at the vort off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is tighter tthan jan 3 Rd. There s better lift w this ratios are better. Banding will picked up tonite or in the AM. LOTTA 10 amounts city south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 People should ignore QPF outputs and focus on what's going on with the mid-levels. Anyone can read a QPF output map. This has major snow storm written all over it. As always it's going to come down the exact placement of the best banding. I think a general 4-8"+ is a good call right now with the potential for 12"+ wherever those bands setup. The GFS also nearly stalls the system as it begins to pull away, that will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not to kiss your you know what... but you are just knocking it out of the park this winter man! Yes he is.. he has been phenomenal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Qpf on the gfs and nam are now identical..0.49" at ewr and NYC Honestly the way you guys were talking I thought it was going to be 1.00"+ lol Aloft is great...with the heavier precip just offshore, we just need a minimal shift now to get closer to .70 or so....then u also have the banding which should be nice due to lapse rates as blue pointed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Vort is in a great position here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs is clearly more amped up, it increased QPF, and it's more tucked in. It may still be trending as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Exact precipitation ignored, look at 42-48 hour charts. Mid level centers are in a nearly classic and textbook position for significant snow here. Yup. With a look like that, the smoothed QPF is not telling the story. This will produce some pretty intense snow-bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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