Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 By that i mean more systems like we just had vs the clippers out of the north/Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is a hard map to figure out as to what will happen in the 10-15 day outlook and beyond. But here is what the GFS ensemble means show for the average 500mb heights in the 10-15day period. Its obvious that the AO is going strongly negative as shown by the higher heights over the pole region, that's a cold signal for the northern US in most cases. I'll have to take a closer look tomorrow, but right now I'm having a hard time visualizing the winds in this pattern.....Thoughts anyone? First guess is that the lower heights over Alaska being slightly stronger than the above normal heights over the SW US would tend to keep the warmer air locked over the SW US. The question I have is this. Is it more likely to keep most of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes area below normal through March 1st? I am leaning to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is a hard map to figure out as to what will happen in the 10-15 day outlook and beyond. But here is what the GFS ensemble means show for the average 500mb heights in the 10-15day period. Its obvious that the AO is going strongly negative as shown by the higher heights over the pole region, that's a cold signal for the northern US in most cases. I'll have to take a closer look tomorrow, but right now I'm having a hard time visualizing the winds in this pattern.....Thoughts anyone? Has the rare -PNA/-NAO ( ridge over Greenland ) combo look. Very few winters have had the -AO/-PNA/-NAO combo. Would be very active across most of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Has the rare -PNA/-NAO ( ridge over Greenland ) combo look. Very few winters have had the -AO/-PNA/-NAO combo. Would be very active across most of the country. I'm not sure that has -PNA look, the trough doesn't dig that for south. Besides you have the axis of the trough well off the western coast of the US, while it may be a -Pacific North American Oscillation signal, you have to look at how far west the trough is located. I'm still leaning for below normal temps over most of this subfourm in the 10-15 day period, and beyond lasting into the first week of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS showing the NAO hanging around +1, the PNA trending towards neutral by Feb. 16th, and the AO having a mixed signal now by the 13th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wouldn't mind a 55 degree day :-) Where is 2011-2012 when you need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 just looped the GFS....the most zzzzzzz since fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wouldn't mind a 55 degree day :-) Where is 2011-2012 when you need it? We can have a 55 degree day come March 1st. Need to keep the February mean temperature down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Live by an index, die by an index. If the -PNA = warm humpers were correct, we'd being furnacing since late October. There's a lot more to it than just charts and graphs. Actual PNA index at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Live by an index, die by an index. If the -PNA = warm humpers were correct, we'd being furnacing since late October. There's a lot more to it than just charts and graphs. Actual PNA index at the top. pna.png indices are like fashion trends.... What's hot, what's not. Stratospheric warming? MJO? PNA? AO? NAO? This season it's the EPO that's fashionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We can have a 55 degree day come March 1st. Need to keep the February mean temperature down! This is the year for March 2012 to make a repeat. PLEASE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is the year for March 2012 to make a repeat. PLEASE! NO!! It may have felt nice but that was VERY destructive to fruit trees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is the year for March 2012 to make a repeat. PLEASE! It'll be a long time before we ever see something like that again.....mid 90's into Michigan in March, unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is the year for March 2012 to make a repeat. PLEASE! March = still ripe snowstorm territory. I'll pass on a 2010/2012 repeat. Haven't had a decent March storm since 2011 so we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It'll be a long time before we ever see something like that again.....mid 90's into Michigan in March, unreal Mid 90s !?!?!! Wow!!! We almost hit 80 at YYZ. I couldn't believe it. I admit that it felt so weird... seeing not a leaf on a tree but it felt like summer. What an event. March was warmer than April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 March = still ripe snowstorm territory. I'll pass on a 2010/2012 repeat. Haven't had a decent March storm since 2011 so we're due. Interesting. I'm assuming our shot at footers is gone come March, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Interesting. I'm assuming our shot at footers is gone come March, no? Never been a foot plus storm in Toronto in March in my lifetime...but there've been some decent 6-10" type events. March 2008 near blizzard comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Never been a foot plus storm in Toronto in March in my lifetime...but there've been some decent 6-10" type events. March 2008 near blizzard comes to mind. March 23rd 2011 snowstorm was a good one. 10-20cm over most of southern ontario. But in a stripe of heavier snow from western lake ontario into the waterloo area saw 20-30cm of heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Pattern repeat doesn't seem like an awful call for the medium to long range....cold followed by a bit of moderation followed by extended NW flow/clipper train and then a few big dog chances to close out winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Never been a foot plus storm in Toronto in March in my lifetime...but there've been some decent 6-10" type events. March 2008 near blizzard comes to mind. What did Toronto get with the April 2005 storm? That was incredible here to get 15" toward the end of April. Typically big seasons like this like to go out with a bang. March 2008 Blizzard (though it mostly missed IMBY) and April 2009 (~10" storm IMBY). April 2005 (15" IMBY). All of these were ~90-105" winters IMBY (well my old place in White Lake that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Pattern repeat doesn't seem like an awful call for the medium to long range....cold followed by a bit of moderation followed by extended NW flow/clipper train and then a few big dog chances to close out winter. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Mid 90s !?!?!! Wow!!! We almost hit 80 at YYZ. I couldn't believe it. I admit that it felt so weird... seeing not a leaf on a tree but it felt like summer. What an event. March was warmer than April! It was really torchy but I don't remember mid 90s into Michigan. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 +EPO/+AO/+NAO is the trifecta of doom. If we can avoid that then maybe things won't get out of control. Feb 1994 had a big warmup around/just after mid-month but it was temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It was really torchy but I don't remember mid 90s into Michigan. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I recall isolated low 90s being reported but not at any major 'climate' locations like DTW, FNT or MBS. I think 86-87s were tops at these locations. I don't recall any mid-90s being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What did Toronto get with the April 2005 storm? That was incredible here to get 15" toward the end of April. Typically big seasons like this like to go out with a bang. March 2008 Blizzard (though it mostly missed IMBY) and April 2009 (~10" storm IMBY). April 2005 (15" IMBY). All of these were ~90-105" winters IMBY (well my old place in White Lake that is). Toronto just doesn't have the elevation for the late season snows. There have been numerous late season snowstorms that give the surrounding areas up on the niagara escarpment 10+cm of snow in april but down by the lake its a general 2cm if that. Early april is a bit different but still difficult to get a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 +EPO/+AO/+NAO is the trifecta of doom. If we can avoid that then maybe things won't get out of control. Feb 1994 had a big warmup around/just after mid-month but it was temporary. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Toronto just doesn't have the elevation for the late season snows. There have been numerous late season snowstorms that give the surrounding areas up on the niagara escarpment 10+cm of snow in april but down by the lake its a general 2cm if that. Early april is a bit different but still difficult to get a good one. Interesting ... I didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It was really torchy but I don't remember mid 90s into Michigan. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. We had back to back 85+ degree days in Buffalo. That was some incredible warmth. I wouldn't mind that again this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It was really torchy but I don't remember mid 90s into Michigan. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. 87 was the highest reading in GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 87 was the highest reading in GRR And I was walking around downtown that afternoon. Couldn't believe how hot it was! Missing some warmth with winter running about 3 months long already, but would get heat stroke with that temp after what we're having lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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