Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Does tan go below zero? yes. I'm thinking -8 to -10F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It really is--too bad the snowpack will no longer be fresh and damaged from the mild temps and rain to boot. Time to brew a fresh pot mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 meh. It's cold - but it's a pretty typical "cold winter day" - nothing is blowing my mind during the day. What is interesting is tonight's cold - really classic rad cooling setup. 18F torch at TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 yes. I'm thinking -8 to -10F. Yeah not even close for TAN, they'll be below zero before midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just glad we made it north of 0F today, Albeit not much above 5.4F was the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The typical radiators will drop, but I don't know how impressive places like ORH and BOS. I don't think those two stations alone should be the arbiter of whether the air mass is impressive. Yes it's typical but if a widespread area sees temps that they only see every 5-10 years, that's a stand out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Chris tossing out a SWS ...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS OVER FRESH SNOW TO PRODUCE LOW TEMPERATURES WELLBELOW ZERO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO NEAR30 BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MOUNTAINS OFWESTERN MAINE...WITH READINGS OF NEAR 10 BELOW EXPECTED RIGHT TOTHE COASTLINE. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATUREREADINGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WIND...PROLONGED EXPOSURETO THESE TYPES OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE HAZARDOUS.TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO CAN LEAD TO FROSTBITE OR HYPOTHERMIA IFYOU ARE NOT PROPERLY PREPARED FOR THE COLD. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TOVENTURE OUTSIDE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DRESSAPPROPRIATELY FOR THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't think those two stations alone should be the arbiter of whether the air mass is impressive. Yes it's typical but if a widespread area sees temps that they only see every 5-10 years, that's a stand out to me. Radiators are the last places to gauge cold. It's warming to 534 thicknesses aloft by tomorrow morning...that is not very cold at all. High overhead will lead to fake cold, but it doesn't really act as a good proxy for the airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Who is seeing temps they only see every 5-10 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah not even close for TAN, they'll be below zero before midnight tonight. -11F is the coldest it's been at TAN since I've been here. That was Jan 29, 2005, a week after I had my 2nd lowest temp. Yup, -9F the AM of the 2005 Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think BOS will be around 0 or -1 tonight, as will much of east coastal MA, and it could achieve it fairly early in the night (Before midnight) and level off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Who is seeing temps they only see every 5-10 years? Some of the rad spots in N MA and SW NH might...ORE has MOS getting them to like -24F or -25F...that would beat out 2011 and 2009...prob gotta go back pretty far to match that. Its mainly a function of perfect radiational cooling setup with fresh snow cover and a retreating arctic airmass that is still holding on enough to give a good launch spot to dive tonight. The 1/22/84 airmass was kind of similar...it really wasn't an epic airmass in terms of the whole column. 850mb was warming (to like -15C by morning) but a high overhead with snow cover was ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NCEP's suggesting the cold shot next week surpasses this one. Perhaps ... but some of these AFD warning statements out there amid the nose of this next arctic invasion are astounding... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI1226 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014...LIFE-THREATENING COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE....BRISK SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH ARE PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTIOWA. EXPECT THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THEAFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR THEN BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF 35 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. THE WORST WIND CHILLS LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL READINGS COULD PLUMMET TO 60 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. THE DANGEROUS COLD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SINCE FEBRUARY 1996. By the way, (somewhat OT but related...) NIC ice monitoring shows that areas of the GL have ice flows/pack expanding. Just looking back at the last 10 years, this is a relatively rare phenomenon for so early in a cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Radiators are the last places to gauge cold. It's warming to 534 thicknesses aloft by tomorrow morning...that is not very cold at all. High overhead will lead to fake cold, but it doesn't really act as a good proxy for the airmass. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the definition of a cold air mass. I'm talking about areal coverage of cold on the surface and public interpretation of temperatures. If you combine yesterday's extremes, today's average and tomorrow morning's below average I think the average Joe will say that this was a stand out cold air mass. Meteorologically speaking no. Who is seeing temps they only see every 5-10 years? I think many places will see temps that they don't see that often. I see -11 every couple of years but I haven't been below -13 for 8 and I think I have a fair shot at seeing that. I'm sure others will see temps that they don't see every year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eh...I'm at 1.7F right now and I can't count many days where I was this cold this early in the evening since I moved here. It's nothing unheard of, but I don't think it's meh cold...at least not up here. We had some sort of secondary boundary go through this afternoon though. We had some high gusts, some -SHSN, a quick dew drop into the mid -10s, and the air temp began to slowly drop from that point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the definition of a cold air mass. I'm talking about areal coverage of cold on the surface and public interpretation of temperatures. If you combine yesterday's extremes, today's average and tomorrow morning's below average I think the average Joe will say that this was a stand out cold air mass. Meteorologically speaking no. I think many places will see temps that they don't see that often. I see -11 every couple of years but I haven't been below -13 for 8 and I think I have a fair shot at seeing that. I'm sure others will see temps that they don't see every year as well. I agree 100% about yesterday...but it's fleeting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eh...I'm at 1.7F right now and I can't count many days where I was this cold this early in the evening since I moved here. It's nothing unheard of, but I don't think it's meh cold...at least not up here. We had some sort of secondary boundary go through this afternoon though. We had some high gusts, some -SHSN, a quick dew drop into the mid -10s, and the air temp began to slowly drop from that point on. Yeah it's not meh cold anywhere. This is one of the more memorable cold shots SNE has seen over the last 50 years..esp the daytime highs the last 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The 1/22/84 airmass was kind of similar...it really wasn't an epic airmass in terms of the whole column. 850mb was warming (to like -15C by morning) but a high overhead with snow cover was ideal.One of the coldest CON readings on record and the coldest since 1943. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CON/1984/1/22/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Already back into negative territory at -0.6° F. Diurnal high was 1.8° F, but we had a midnight high of 6.1° F before the winds turned NW. I'm thinking most of the Housatonic Valley is -15 to -20° F tonight, coldest since Jan. 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Maybe some diamond dust in the coldest valleys tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Already back into negative territory at -0.6° F. Diurnal high was 1.8° F, but we had a midnight high of 6.1° F before the winds turned NW. I'm thinking most of the Housatonic Valley is -15 to -20° F tonight, coldest since Jan. 2005. Seems like a 5-10 year cold shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Maybe some diamond dust in the coldest valleys tonight? Yeah I was thinking that too ... Machine guidance drops most sites some 5 to as much as 20F lower than their current DPs for lows, and as the temperature drops like a nympho prom date and passes through that temperature frost and pixie dust should take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah it's not meh cold anywhere. This is one of the more memorable cold shots SNE has seen over the last 50 years..esp the daytime highs the last 2 daysI understand both points. Yesterday was historical...today & tomorrow are impressive, but probably not historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The high here was 12.6. Probably a 1 in 2-4 year shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Seems like a 5-10 year cold shot? It depends on where you are for this one. For your backyard, it won't be tonight...you'll get below zero but probably not as low as 1/24/11 and certainly not as low as Jan 2004 and 2005 I don't think. Same deal with ORH airport. The radional cooling spots though, this is an ideal setup for them that doesn't come along all too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah I was thinking that too ... Machine guidance drops most sites some 5 to as much as 20F lower than their current DPs for lows, and as the temperature drops like a nympho prom date and passes through that temperature frost and pixie dust should take place. Could that happen in say Ayer,MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Seems like a 5-10 year cold shot?Maybe in this era, but probably not if you go back 20+ years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I understand both points. Yesterday was historical...today & tomorrow are impressive, but probably not historical. I guess that is what I mean. Maybe some rural areas have a 5 yr..perhaps 10 (although not sure about that)..but I don't think some valley in the middle of nowhere dictates the magnitude of the cold. Yesterday was a completely different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Maybe in this era, but probably not if you go back 20+ years ago. I wonder if we're going back into another 20 year era period of cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NCEP's suggesting the cold shot next week surpasses this one. Perhaps ... but some of these AFD warning statements out there amid the nose of this next arctic invasion are astounding... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1226 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014 ...LIFE-THREATENING COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE... .BRISK SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH ARE PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. EXPECT THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR THEN BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF 35 TO 50 BELOW ZERO. THE WORST WIND CHILLS LOOK TO OCCUR MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILL READINGS COULD PLUMMET TO 60 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. THE DANGEROUS COLD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SINCE FEBRUARY 1996. By the way, (somewhat OT but related...) NIC ice monitoring shows that areas of the GL have ice flows/pack expanding. Just looking back at the last 10 years, this is a relatively rare phenomenon for so early in a cold season. Looks like the coming cold wave nails the midwest first and worst, rather than having the center of cold not all that far north of the St.Lawrence. Snowpack will limit modification, but I think there will be some, at least compared to direct drive from Chicoutimi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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