user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Happy New Year to all! NAM and GFS both showed some improvements @ H5. The 18z NAM was wetter than 12z while the GFS was similar at the surface. Lets see if the H5 improvements translate to the surface now that the energy will be fully sampled. GFS: .40" line is near NYC..50"-.75" for Suffolk County.Sharp cutoff west of EWR. The 18Z NAM is definitely wetter. .5"+ of liquid over most of NJ and .6"+ over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Happy New Year to all! NAM and GFS both showed some improvements @ H5. The 18z NAM was wetter than 12z while the GFS was similar at the surface. Lets see if the H5 improvements translate to the surface now that the energy will be fully sampled. So with a 15:1 ratio, NYC is probably looking at 6". So will go with 4-8 inches for NYC based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 So with a 15:1 ratio, NYC is probably looking at 6". So will go with 4-8 inches for NYC based on that. yea 4-8 is a good call right now imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Think u pretty much get ur answer at 0z tonite if the surface is gona reflect what's going on at 500 mb If u get a round of .5. Then that's 7 and that's great but I think ths should b .75 across the board we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well with all of the energy over land and being sampled correctly, by the end of the 00z runs we will more than likely know whats going to happen... Hopefully there are some decent changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well with all of the energy over land and being sampled correctly, by the end of the 00z runs we will more than likely know whats going to happen... Hopefully there are some decent changes ScreenHunter_59 Dec. 31 17.38.png Yea tonight's trend will be telling. Hopefully the 18z runs were a good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The ultimate weenie J.B called 4-8 n.y.c on sunday would be a heck a forecast more will be revealed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Might be helpful to add the date to the thread title so we know which 00z run this is. Easy to tell right now based on post count, but for those that might want to look back in a couple days or longer it would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So with a 15:1 ratio, NYC is probably looking at 6". So will go with 4-8 inches for NYC based on that. 4-8" is probably the safe call right now. As it looks right now there may be 2 "jackpot" areas.. One being the extreme northern burbs which will benefit from awesome ratios and being closer to the WAA and of course somewhere out on Suffolk where they will be closer to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The ultimate weenie J.B called 4-8 n.y.c on sunday would be a heck a forecast more will be revealed. have a link ? also on his twitter he is forecasting blizzard conditions thursday night fri morning nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the 0z GFS and Euro both go back to showing yesterday's 12z solutions, then this event would top Boxing Day in regards to pre-MECS model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well two good things, no rain/ snow line moving up from the south and it will snow regardless whether it be 3-6 or 8-12 it will snow, it will be shoveled and plowed and anything more is a bonus. I personally love the potential of low single digits Friday night/ Sat morning preceeded by daytime highs in the mid teens Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z SREF are much wetter. 0.50" line is back into Central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z SREF are much wetter. 0.50" line is back into Central nj. great video. very helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 great video. very helpful Thanks man. Pretty basic but it is my best explanation of what's causing problems right now. Anyway the SREFs are not 00z data so, as they say, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z SREF are much wetter. 0.50" line is back into Central nj. Any idea about the spread? The 15z had a ton of spread around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run is already way more amplified than the 12z run just glancing at the 9 hr/21 hr comparison. This doesn't mean much going forward as of now...just a testament to how much variance we've been seeing in each solution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run is already way more amplified than the 12z run just glancing at the 9 hr/21 hr comparison. This doesn't mean much going forward as of now...just a testament to how much variance we've been seeing in each solution today. How about vs 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z SREF are much wetter. 0.50" line is back into Central nj. Happy New Year all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Doesn't look to be as AMPED as 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm too lazy to look at the guidance, someone please tell me what the NAM is doing. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I hope the nam has alot of wine to drink tonight. And john brings the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Doesn't look to be as AMPED as 18z so far. Uh oh, 18z wasn't any too amped, whatever that means, though I presume it refers to the quantity of precipitation likely to be generated along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice increase across the board on the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Doesn't look to be as AMPED as 18z so far. Some of the features at H5 simply look slower, don't know how this run will go. The slowing down of the progressive flow is a plus and the lack of amplification is a minus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guys if ur not analyzing the models pls b quiet w this stupid s.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice increase across the board on the SREF Thanks, appreciate this. Still showing a lot of spread which isn't surprising given how long we have until the coastal develops. Earthlight never responds to my posts for some reason. I guess it's because I don't live in the NYC area or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big differences at the 850 mb vortices compared to 18z 21 hours vs 0z 15 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Changes at 500mb compared to 12z are a joke. Digging the back end vort way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice increase across the board on the SREF For LI folks, 5 of those members are 15+ at ISP. Mean is 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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