January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.

[Snowpocalypse]

its amazing how a storm that tracks west of us will stay on the models for 192 hours plus without shifting

 

just like the models never back down when they show a warmup but always back off of a artic outbreak.

[clskinsfan]

Here's my map: 

snowmap2.jpg

 

Best map I've seen so far.

[mitchnick]

its amazing how a storm that tracks west of us will stay on the models for 192 hours plus without shifting

 

for the same reason they kept nailing us in 09/10.....pattern

[Bob Chill]

The biggest positive the last few days is declining risk of a true dryslot whiff. Even that isn't off the table but it's become a low prob. Imo- the upside has never changed even since before I bailed on Sunday morning.

I'm pretty happy with the prospect of maybe getting an inch or more with temps below freezing. If the upside surprise comes it will be a nowcast situation and not a model run situation. At least for me anyways.

I'm not even worried what the euro shows. It can be a fail or upside. It won't sway me much. I think I've matured as a weenie.

[gymengineer]

They could ramp up to our northeast but I wouldn't expect a 78 type megastorm.  If Mapgirl gets 3 or 4 inches she should be happy....knowing her she will be even if she only gets 2.  I guess my point about was that this kind o storm it is tough to forecast where any heavier banding might develop and that it can sometimes develop later than forecast.   Somehow I remember that happening around here more than the opposite except for the veteran's day storm. 

Right, this is not going to be anywhere in 78's league. It might, however, be NESIS ranked if forecasts verify northeast of us. 

[jacindc]

I do sometimes make it a point to be sharp/curt in my commentary. But again it's like swimming against a gulf stream of positivity so maybe that's partly why it's noticeable.

Also makes it as easy to dismiss what you're saying as it is to dismiss the rampant boosters or whiners. It gets really old on all sides. It's as much of a schtick for you now as anything Ji posts.

[mitchnick]

The biggest positive the last few days is declining risk of a true dryslot whiff. Even that isn't off the table but it's become a low prob. Imo- the upside has never changed even since before I bailed on Sunday morning.

I'm pretty happy with the prospect of maybe getting an inch or more with temps below freezing. If the upside surprise comes it will be a nowcast situation and not a model run situation. At least for me anyways.

I'm not even worried what the euro shows. It can be a fail or upside. It won't sway me much. I think I've matured as a weenie.

that makes you an old weenie   

[mitchnick]

Right, this is not going to be anywhere in 78's league. It might, however, be NESIS ranked if forecasts verify northeast of us. 

ahh, to see another storm on the nesis list that I have no recollection of and can't find snowfall info on the LWX site

[snow.]

I think for DC metro, any wetter solutions are too warm, and the colder solutions are too dry....I think we have a cap on snow amounts here....Hard to think we could get an all snow solution with like 0.3" QPF....the wetter solutions don't have good low placement for us during the initial precip

[DDweatherman]

ahh, to see another storm on the nesis list that I have no recollection of and can't find snowfall info on the LWX site

Yes sir, good old 2/78

[mitchnick]

I've wondered that. Honestly.. I don't really care. Which probably means no one will remember this post.

 

 

[gymengineer]

ahh, to see another storm on the nesis list that I have no recollection of and can't find snowfall info on the LWX site

December 13-16, 2013 is already on that list, lol. 

[Bob Chill]

that makes you an old weenie

I've learned a lot in the last 7 years or so. I'm having a better time absorbing guidance and making better wags than riding the young weenie rollercoaster. Wishcasting is a pretty hollow existence at our latitude. If I lived in sne I would be 5 posted multiple times a year. But wouldn't care because my snow piles would be bigger than my house.

[mitchnick]

Yes sir, good old 2/78

actually, I lived a couple miles SE of BWI then and got about 9"+, so I was happy

Annapolis, just 15 miles to my S got around 14" though, with ACY near 2'

otoh, DCA got around 5 or " but IAD only had 1" with the arctic frontal passage if memory serves

[gymengineer]

actually, I lived a couple miles SE of BWI then and got about 9"+, so I was happy

Annapolis, just 15 miles to my S got around 14" though, with ACY near 2'

otoh, DCA got around 5 or " but IAD only had 1" with the arctic frontal passage if memory serves

DCA was 2", hence the pain. 

[mitchnick]

I've learned a lot in the last 7 years or so. I'm having a better time absorbing guidance and making better wags than riding the young weenie rollercoaster. Wishcasting is a pretty hollow existence at our latitude. If I lived in sne I would be 5 posted multiple times a year. But wouldn't care because my snow piles would be bigger than my house.

I've learned 2 things: 1) never give up hope, and 2) get over it quick because there will be plenty more disappointments to come

[mitchnick]

DCA was 2", hence the pain. 

hmm, maybe it was Andrews that got 5-6", because I do recall some location in the DCA area that did

[gymengineer]

hmm, maybe it was Andrews that got 5-6", because I do recall some location in the DCA area that did

Somewhere in PG got 7" according the KU maps, so that may very well have been around or at Andrews. 

 

And I feel like I have to add this disclaimer: Sorry for turning the discussion into one reminiscing the 78 blizzard. Once again, I am not in any way trying to compare the two storms other than just the interesting snowfall gradient pattern. Nor am I trying to suggest Baltimore is going to get 9". 

[Sparky]

actually, I lived a couple miles SE of BWI then and got about 9"+, so I was happy

Annapolis, just 15 miles to my S got around 14" though, with ACY near 2'

otoh, DCA got around 5 or " but IAD only had 1" with the arctic frontal passage if memory serves

I'll have to check the Kocin book, but I don't think Annapolis did that well in this storm.  BWI got 9", Bel Air got 14-16.

[HighStakes]

I'll have to check the Kocin book, but I don't think Annapolis did that well in this storm.  BWI got 9", Bel Air got 14-16.

I was only 5 so I was too young to remember that storm but didn't the snow shield back into the area from the east off the ocean.

[stormtracker]

Well, at the very least we'll get some mood flakes.  I really am at the "Matt" point where if we get an inch, I'll be ok.   I think we have a 50/50 shot at that.

[vinylfreak89]

Here is more Berk's for ya.

Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Computer Models are not perfect!

Here is this morning's NAM Model- It DID NOT Initialize Well!

MISSING CURRENT RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST

*Left image: 6 Hour accumulated precipitation forecast for 1 PM from NAM- It shows it staying 'Dry' in southern Georgia

*Right: Radar at 9:30 AM showing rain (confirmed by ground stations) in southern Georgia.

This is the part of the complex system that will move north towards the Mid Atlantic. Basically there is more moisture available than is being factored in right now.

Another reason I continue to not be confident in the models, overall they are having trouble with this storm.

*We will have a moderate event Thursday afternoon-Friday morning!

This NAM model is showing 4"-6" of snow for Baltimore's BWI despite current mishap.

Hmmm....

 

I never comment on facebook (and rarely on the forums these days) but I just had to point out the absurdity of this:

 

Copied this from what I wrote on facebook... mostly because it reminds me of things I used to say in my weenieish days.

 

I rarely write on facebook pages but I had to absolutely comment on this because there is just some terrible meteorology being applied here. The rain in GA is not even part of our developing storm... it is associated to the front running piece of energy that is causing the double low structure and bringing the best precip rates away from the best lift and off the coast (during the height of the storm). Our storm is related to precip developing now over S TX, not this front running wave. If THAT comes further north (say S TN) or has a more NE as opposed to ENE trajectory later today/tonight, then its time to start getting a little excited about good snow. As far as dry air needing to be squeezed out, that is not entirely right either. Because of having that front running system and the orientation of the main system, you have two jet streaks causing an area of subsidence. That is what is causing the dry air, and the weaker that front running system gets and the sharper the trough orients the faster that dissapears. Note: I am not a professional, only a hobbyist, but I hate seeing people being blatantly misinformed.

[Sparky]

I was only 5 so I was too young to remember that storm but didn't the snow shield back into the area from the east off the ocean.

It backed in from PA, so it moved southwest then curved south, southeast over central MD.

[Bob Chill]

Well, at the very least we'll get some mood flakes. I really am at the "Matt" point where if we get an inch, I'll be ok. I think we have a 50/50 shot at that.

Nothing wrong with that. There's upside because development nearly overhead is on the table. Nowcasting will be fun for those awake. I'm taking a nap tomorrow afternoon. I just like the chase and mental exercise. Even when the rug gets pulled. Luckily this rug is only bathroom mat sized this goaround

[HighStakes]

It backed in from PA, so it moved southwest then curved south, southeast over central MD.

With a scenario like that I can't imagine any local forecaster having any idea the Baltimore Metro would get a foot of snow. Do you remember any original forecasts before the storm.

[mitchnick]

With a scenario like that I can't imagine any local forecaster having any idea the Baltimore Metro would get a foot of snow. Do you remember any original forecasts before the storm.

I recall Accuwx saying a couple days before on WCAO that it could be an inch or up to a foot

apparently the 1 model they had back then was pretty hung ho but mets were pretty gun shy to go with it if memory serves

[Sparky]

With a scenario like that I can't imagine any local forecaster having any idea the Baltimore Metro would get a foot of snow. Do you remember any original forecasts before the storm.

They were calling for 6-12" in Baltimore as it got close because they thought the Miller B would be far enough south to do that....there was sunshine through clouds in the early morning...looked like it would be a bust after about 2" had fallen the night before....then ominous dark clouds descended from that "weird" north/northeast direction and the fun was on....heavy heavy snow with very high winds probably in the 35-50 mph range.

[vinylfreak89]

this is such a tired logic -- as if the two aren't connected -- it's intellectually lazy and shows a complete lack of even a basic understanding of NWP

 

the coastal low jumps because of the energy out front (the rain in GA this morning)... plain and simple.. unless that gets weaker, thats the way its gonna be.

[usedtobe]

That's about as good a call anyone can make now. If the models do bump up qpf. I would be afraid if I was a forecaster to bump up totals. So far this morning there have been some pretty aggressive calls from local Baltimore stations.

I think towards BWi and Mapgirl, today would be heavier than DCA.  I'd certainly bump up amounts if the Euro came in wetter today. Otherwise, I'd leave it alone.  The one troublesome aspect of the storm is that the track of the upper vort is one that is really good for dc.  For that reason,  I think in my CWG quote today I'll leave some wiggle room. 

[Bob Chill]

I agree about the track, Wes. It's the only reason I unbailed on Sunday night. It's also why I'm not hung up on model runs. I like storms that happen basically overhead. Nowcasting is fun with modest upside setups. Even if we phail.