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andyhb

Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2014

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About that time of the year again.

 

Following two quiet years number-wise (despite a number of significant events including 3/2/12, the May events this year and 11/17), I'll go with 1195 tornadoes. 

 

First high risk on March 26th.

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Predict the first ENHANCED RISK of 2014. Ha ha ha. It will probably be before Feb. 15th.

 

It won't be implemented yet.

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tornadoes: 1368

 

High risk day: March 31, 2014. There will be a high risk at 12z that day, there will be 10 tornadoes and 485 wind reports. 

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I'll go ~1,100 tornadoes and May 1st for the first High Risk of the year. Although the magnitude of cold intrusions so far this winter and the re-intensification of the southern plains drought has me a bit skittish numbers-wise, I can't see us ending up with below 1000 tornadoes for a third year in a row.

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I'll go ~1,100 tornadoes and May 1st for the first High Risk of the year. Although the magnitude of cold intrusions so far this winter and the re-intensification of the southern plains drought has me a bit skittish numbers-wise, I can't see us ending up with below 1000 tornadoes for a third year in a row.

I agree with the reasoning behind this. We need a shake up pattern wise. IMO, only a PDO flip or an ENSO signal flip flop would get me to be optimistic.

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I agree with the reasoning behind this. We need a shake up pattern wise. IMO, only a PDO flip or an ENSO signal flip flop would get me to be optimistic.

 

Well the latter might be in the cards.

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I'll go ~1,100 tornadoes and May 1st for the first High Risk of the year. Although the magnitude of cold intrusions so far this winter and the re-intensification of the southern plains drought has me a bit skittish numbers-wise, I can't see us ending up with below 1000 tornadoes for a third year in a row.

 

Actually, you raise good points there why it could very well end up below 1000. The numbers of tornadoes between years are independent from each other, so having a third straight year of below 1000 would not be too statistically significant.

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Well the latter might be in the cards.

 

I'd take a nino at the expense of severe events right now.  Not for the winter weather either.  Just good soaking rains for a few months and try to get some sense of normalcy in the west and plains drought wise. 

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I'd take a nino at the expense of severe events right now.  Not for the winter weather either.  Just good soaking rains for a few months and try to get some sense of normalcy in the west and plains drought wise. 

 

This. An El Nino might actually help severe season to some extent this year by moistening up the southern plains for all we know. The last two severe seasons have been for the most part quite pitiful and it almost feels like to me that any change from last year would yield a net positive outcome for severe weather. Then again, anyone saying that statement following 2012 would have been burned badly, and that could very well be the case here too. All I know is that I want some rain.

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