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Found 30 results

  1. I remember be very young and already having a strong interest in thunderstorms, severe weather and winter storms. However it was a storm in the summer of 1993 that really elevated my obsession. It was a sweltering hot day and I was at an indoor gym and pool in central Suffolk county Long Island. All the sudden a dark line of clouds with frequent cloud to ground lightning blew across the sky and flash bang lightning and thunder started. The pool was evacuated and I walked over to the windows and saw torrential rain, pea sized hail and very strong wind gusts. The light poles were swaying violently and the wind gusts were reportedly over 50 mph. Due to historical weather data I think I am able to narrow this storm down to Saturday, July 10, 1993. I remember the radar showing very isolated cells near nyc and central Long Island. Also I think remember the news saying someone on Long Island was struck by lightning in this storm. Unfortunately the historical radar data from GIS only goes back to 1995 so I can’t confirm the exact date for sure. I know it’s a long shot but was wondering if anyone else here had any memory of this storm. Growing up on Long Island it was very frustrating getting severe storms due to the stabilizing marine influence, but this storm stuck out to me as short lived/isolated but very intense. I attended the Long Island philharmonic in heckscher Park that night with my family and I remember even the conductor mentioned the storm as being crazy. Also please feel free to share details of any storm that sparked your interest in weather.
  2. A few days ago Accuweather released it's Fall 2017 outlook. It seems to be on the rain train for fall 2017 and that's certainly been the pattern this year. We've busted the drought wide open with several flooding events and no long interludes of drought. The temperatures are much less warm than last year as well. After a warm winter we've seen a mild spring and summer 2017. Will that continue through fall? Will we have an early frost or freeze or will it be extremely late arriving like fall of 2016? Time will tell, but I'm very happy we've survived another summer season in the Great Tennessee Valley and escaped some of the extremes we can face at times in the region. Accuweather Fall 2017 outllook. https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/ec7a292/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8e%2F9d%2Fd3a3bf2c458f8f498c2346abde99%2F2017-us-fall-forecast-final.jpg Current drought monitor for August 2017 vs 2016. We are starting off much better as we head into fall. Especially given the balance of the next 2 weeks are supposed to be at or below normal on temps with normal or above normal rainfall. It naturally dries out in fall but last fall it was unnaturally warm and the soil moisture was gone by the time we started September.
  3. High CAPE moderate shear severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, including our own Mid-South. While the southern Plains may get rocked, my focus will be in/near our subforum region and the Mid-South. Friday IL/IN may go in Illinois and Indiana as the Thursday night Plains MCS ejects up that way and leaves an outflow boundary warm front hybrid. Friday heights will be rising slightly, and the next short-wave may be back in Missouri, but IL/IN will have high CAPE on a boundary. Still I would at least watch Friday. Atmosphere sometimes give hints of over/under the day before. Saturday could be a severe weather outbreak all the way from Oklahoma to Ohio, including all points in between and slightly south. Sunday morning the Saturday reports chart may look like something from an April outbreak. This time we trade in strong wind shear for high CAPE. Speed shear will be plenty for supercells though. Low level shear will be quite impressive on the synoptic warm front and any outflow boundaries from Friday night rain in Hosier Alley. Mid-South: On Saturday morning I expect a warm front and/or outflow boundaries to be draped near the Ohio River. Low pressure should track out of Missouri into the region. Smaller meso-lows are possible along the Ohio River Valley boundary as it lifts north. Locally higher storm-relative-helicity will be found east of any lows and really all along the boundary. Low level jet, which has frustrated Plains chasers, will be pumping right into the Mid-South. Mid-upper level winds will be WSW, none of this VBV prone SSW stuff. Though speed shear is not exceptionally high, turning with height and CAPE will both be robust. Stout upper level wave will come out by 00Z 5/28 and spark severe thunderstorms ahead of itself Saturday afternoon. SPC has Enhanced Risk Day 3. Pretty easy to read between the lines that a Moderate Risk is coming, perhaps as early as Day 2. MDT would probably centered from eastern OK into the Ozarks, but may extend into our Mid-South. At any rate Saturday severe storms are likely and may include tornadoes.
  4. Well unfortunately 2015's status as the least deadly year in the modern record has come undone in the final two weeks with two events claiming more than 10 lives (active December in strong Nino striking with a vengeance). It is that time to begin speculating about this upcoming season, since meteorological spring is ~2 months away once again. Given that we will be moving out of a super Nino towards neutral ENSO and possibly into a La Nina by summer/fall (likely still with +PDO conditions although clearly not as robust as previous years), there are a number of factors that can be looked at. One is the strong sub tropical jet continuing and possibly offering severe threats to the Gulf coast and Florida (supported by other cases within El Nino events like 1983 and 1998). Won't be surprised if the S Plains end up active once again, although they tend to do better in weak/moderate Nino events. A late start to the season is possible given the fact that several strong Nino winters featured snowstorms in the SE well into March. Overall, I'd expect a season somewhere near average this year, as most springs coming out of strong Ninos tended to hover around that (although there are some quite active ones like 1973 and 1998). 1958, 1983, 1966, etc. all fall into the average/perhaps slightly below average category. Number of tornadoes: 1205 First high risk: April 22nd
  5. ApacheTrout

    Severe Weather - June 28

    The SPC has placed most of Vermont in the Slight Risk category for severe weather tomorrow (June 28). BTV forecasts MUCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and high level (0-6k) shear of 40-50 kts, which (if I'm reading the severe weather parameters correctly) could support the formation of bowing thunderstorms or supercells. At the very least, the coverage area should see potential for widespread rain (much needed) and possible flash floods where storms train over the same locations.
  6. Well it's that time of year again as the new year rapidly approaches. We are breaking out of the multi-year neutral ENSO phase into a Nino which may offer some promise to the High Plains/W TX for the first time in several years. After we thought things couldn't get much quieter overall after 2013...they did, with this year likely being the quietest on record in the modern detection era, despite a couple of more impressive events in late April and mid June. It seems a +PDO is likely to hold through at least a part of Spring, and Nino climo suggests that May and June may be the months to watch. Analog wise, at least for the winter in terms of what they did in the following springs, it is a bit of a mixed bag with years such as 2003 and 1977 being pretty active and some of the 1980s analogs (1980, 1987 and 1988) being ones best left forgotten. I'll post a poll for this year in terms of numbers of tornadoes, but it would be good to hear everyone's thoughts as always on what could be in store for 2015. I do think this should be a more active year for chasers in the Plains. Years with strong +PDOs, however, tended to be on the quieter side. For number of tornadoes, I'll go with 1065. For the first high risk, I will go with April 29th.
  7. Hey there, this is my first post on this particular weather forum. Since severe weather season starts Sunday, I thought I would take the time and finally hand analyze a surface map (I am slow as molasses ) and practice so I could use it during severe weather this year. Is there a meteorologist or forecaster experienced in hand analysis that would be willing to give me feedback once I finish? Thanks...
  8. Quincy

    Severe Weather Threats: May 6-10

    As the pattern over North America shifts, an extended period of potential severe thunderstorms targets the central U.S. Although this update covers May 6-10, thunderstorms are ongoing today (May 5th) and were prevalent in prior days as well. The difference here is that we are gradually starting to see more and more potentially potent setups on the horizon. Wednesday, May 6th: This day has been on the radar for a while and things are coming into somewhat better focus. As shortwave energy pivots from the High Plains to central/northern Plains on Wednesday, an area of surface low pressure will develop. With more forcing in place than prior days, that alone signals an enhanced severe weather threat. — By Wednesday afternoon, a portion of the surface low should be crossing over from far eastern Colorado into western Kansas. The strongest forcing should reside from northwestern Oklahoma into central Kansas. However, the greatest instability will likely be displaced further south from central Oklahoma down into north Texas. Partial to considerable cloud-cover will tend to limit the amount of destabilization that takes place. That combined with modest flow at 500mb, progged to be on the order of about 35 to 45 knots, will tend to limit the extent of the severe weather potential. The surface low itself is also a bit elongated. If it were more concentrated and also deeper, that would signal a greater severe thunderstorm potential. Nonetheless, with a tongue of 1,000 to 2,000+ J/kg CAPE, favorable speed and directional shear, and some forcing aloft should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. — In terms of severe threats and the areas to watch… It comes down to northwestern Oklahoma into central Kansas for what should be the greatest severe threat. More isolated severe storms are still possible along a dryline down into western and central Texas. Large hail, perhaps very large in a couple of storms, appears to be the most significant risk. Damaging winds will be possible, especially into the overnight as storms may tend to merge into lines. There is a tornado threat, which should be maximized during the early evening hours, as the low level jet ramps up. As has been the case many times this year, while there is an evident tornado threat, the intensity and duration of any tornadic storms will be dampened somewhat by the limiting factors mentioned above. There is a fairly good likliehood that multiple tornadoes (but not a major outbreak) will be reported late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Thursday into Friday, May 7th and 8th, also provide some severe weather threat, but in a more isolated and sporadic nature. Upper level heights should remain fairly neutral through the period with no significant forcing noted in the models. Each day is likely to feature moderate instability and at least marginally supportive wind shear for supercell thunderstorms. The corridor for this period should be narrowed in on the Texas panhandle, portions of interior Texas and into Oklahoma. While some severe threat may nudge into portions of Kansas, the greatest (still somewhat limited) threat should hang back further south. Each day, storms may produce large hail with some damaging winds and a few tornadoes. — Each day, watch for a few things: First, where is the greatest instability? If cloud-cover and convective debris are limited during the morning, expect a somewhat enhanced severe weather threat during the afternoon. Also, look for any outflow or other mesoscale boundaries that can be the focal point(s) for storm development. Finally, notice any upper level perturbations, even if seemingly minor, as they could provide just enough forcing to locally increase the severe threat. Saturday, May 9th has the potential, but the keyword is potential, to be a significant severe weather outbreak with numerous tornadoes. The overall pattern is favorable, as a trough swinging from the Four Corners region to eastern Colorado/New Mexico by late-day will provide ample forcing from the High Plains into portions of the central to southern Plains. Caution must be applied when looking at the analogs, but there is a fairly strong signal from the analogs that favors widespread severe thunderstorms and at least isolated significant severe events, including strong and/or long-track tornadoes. — Now, even though some major events show up in the analogs, there are a few limiting factors that will not favor a high-end outbreak. While the flow and forcing increase aloft, 70-80 knots at 300mb and 50-60 knots at 500mb will fall well short of an event such as 4/14/12, which showed up as a GFS-based analog. As far as instability, even though moderate CAPE values are predicted, we’re not looking at strong to extreme instability. There seems to be a common theme, with this week especially, that the atmosphere is not quite taking full advantage, resulting in a less extreme “than possible” setup. — With all of this said, even if the timing is not exactly right, and the timing looks pretty favorable right now, severe thunderstorms are strongly favored on Saturday. What will be the difference between a low-end event and a more significant outbreak will come down to mesoscale details. What also favors severe weather on Saturday is how the models, overall, have been in very good agreement with the general setup on Saturday for quite some time. The focus on Saturday ranges from north Texas through much of Oklahoma and Kansas, to perhaps as far north as portions of Nebraska. All severe weather modes are anticipated, with an enhanced risk of tornadoes. Sunday, May 10th is a bit further out there, but yet another severe day is quite possible. Details are a bit more muddled, as the evolution of Saturday will have a sizeable impact on what transpires on Sunday. The threat zone inches somewhat east, ranging from portions of Texas up through central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and perhaps into portions of Missouri and Arkansas. In summary, expect severe weather threats for the rest of this week and likely through most of this weekend across the central U.S. At least a few severe thunderstorms are expected each day, with scattered severe storms on Wednesday and perhaps a mode widespread and significant event on Saturday. Tornadoes are possible each day, but the day with the likelihood for the most tornadoes is also Saturday. In terms of storm chasing, there should be many quality opportunities to get out in prime real estate, from the High Plains into the Plains west of I-35. With the threats covering a long period over some similar areas, it may be worth while to hunker down and start thinking of possible targets or even just places to stay (if you’re planning a multi-day trip). Without giving too much away, and since details may change, I tend to favor a corridor from the Texas panhandle into southwest and central Kansas. Climatology also favors this zone for the greatest severe weather threat and trends this year have kept the dryline a bit further west, mainly across these areas, during most events.
  9. Well as of now, there is a marginal risk by the SPC for the north eastern Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas area. SPC AC 201730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX THROUGH A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH A WEAKER...LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH TX INTO LA AND MS. ...EXTREME NERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... NEAR SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SLY OVER THE WRN GULF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERGOING MODIFICATION WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F. AS THE ERN U.S. SFC RIDGE ADVANCES EWD...A SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FROM NERN TX THROUGH LA...AR AND WRN TN. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NEWD RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MODE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK THIS UPDATE DUE TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
  10. About that time of the year again. Following two quiet years number-wise (despite a number of significant events including 3/2/12, the May events this year and 11/17), I'll go with 1195 tornadoes. First high risk on March 26th.
  11. A confirmed tornado has already occured in Mississippi today with the radar beginning to light up with rotation sigs. Cell just east of Louin/Montrose, MS has good rotation and could produce. SPC has upgraded this area to Enhanced. Embedded areas of 1000 j/kg cape and 60kt surface shear could provide an active afternoon near the S MS, S AL line.
  12. Quincy

    U.S. Tornado Days Per Year

    The United States has a greater frequency of tornadoes than most other counties. For many factors, the vast majority of tornadoes occur east of the Rocky Mountains across the continental U.S. Although the central and southern Plains region is widely considered to be "Tornado Alley," there are other areas that see just as many tornadoes, if not even more. The two graphics below are adaptations of NOAA/NWS SPC graphics found in their Tornado Environmental Browser. A broad area from the east slopes of the Rockies east to the west slopes of the Appalachians typically see the most days with tornadoes per year. Two local maximums can be identified in northeastern Colorado and central Florida. While these areas may see numerous tornadoes in any given year, they are generally low on the EF-scale. The central Appalachians feature a local minimum of tornadoes, but as one travels east, the frequency of tornadoes increases. While terrain by itself will generally not have much of an effect on a tornado, especially a significant (EF/F-2 or stronger) one, there are reasons why terrain affects tornado frequency. In the Plains, lee cyclogenesis combined with a surge of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and drier air from the Rockies tends to create a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms and tornado development. Across the East Coast, there is less real estate to work with when considering the proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Also, wind out of the south to southeast in the lower levels will often mitigate the risk of severe thunderstorms, especially in the spring and early summer months from the mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast. The placement of a "Bermuda" high and/or a "southeast ridge" of high pressure will tend to limit the formation of strong non-tropical low pressure systems along the East Coast during the warmer months, as the jet stream is often displaced further northwest. The frequency of days with significant tornadoes is in some ways similar to, but also has differences in comparison with the frequency of days with all tornadoes. While portions of Colorado and Florida may see the most tornadoes overall, there are two distinct areas that feature a much greater frequency of significant tornadoes. The southern Plains into Dixie Alley (lower to mid-Mississippi Valley) will on average experience the most significant tornado outbreaks. Here, there are three factors that are probably most responsible for this. First, their proximity to warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico fill favor higher dew-points and greater instability. Second, the tornado season is a bit elongated here. While April into May have featured the most significant tornadoes in Dixie Alley, the late fall into winter months have also included several major tornado outbreaks. Finally, there may be at least some influence from tropical systems. While tropical storms and hurricanes often do produce tornadoes, it should be noted that most of these tornadoes are generally not significant. Eastern Nebraska into the Midwest also averages an elevated number of days per year with significant tornadoes. Here, while the tornado season typically peaks in June, at least some fall tornado events have spawned significant tornadoes this far north. In 2013, October 3rd-4th recorded six significant tornadoes from eastern Nebraska into Iowa, with the major tornado outbreak of November 17th featuring 32 significant tornadoes in the Midwest. Other noteworthy observations: Missouri is an interesting case. The western portion of the state is often considered to be in tornado alley and some maps will place southeastern Missouri in Dixie Alley. The state has seen plenty of significant and even violent tornadoes, with the Joplin tornado of 2011 being one of the more recent examples. However, a small section of central Missouri features a local minimum in terms of both tornadoes and significant tornadoes. One possible explanation can be their location being in a "dryslot" of sorts for tornadoes. For storm systems developing just east of the Rockies, the eastward extent of associated severe weather will often fall short of central Missouri. Likewise, systems developing in the lower Mississippi Valley often form a bit too far east to target central Missouri with the most tornadoes. West Virginia has less tornadoes than most states east of the Rockies. One factor that immediately comes to mind would be the population density and terrain, which may limit some tornado reports. However, their location along the Appalachians certainly plays a role in the lower frequency of tornadoes. The higher elevations will typically have less instability. Likewise, moisture pooling will typically favor higher dew-points west and east of the Appalachians, leaving West Virginia in another tornado dryslot. According to the NWS, West Virginia has no recorded EF/F-4 or 5 tornadoes. With that said, a long-track F-5 tornado in southeastern Ohio narrowly missed passing into West Virginia before lifting. Also, an F-4 tornado that dropped southeast of Pennslvania into Maryland also lifted shortly before it would have passed into West Virginia.
  13. The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at another severe weather sequence from the southern Plains into the Southeast US. Just like last time the models seem to be trending from a Plains highlight to a Dixie Alley highlight. South severe is still 8-10 days away so uncertainty is high. Though one cannot pinpoint details or target areas, in May one can assume severe weather will verify at least 2-3 days out of the 6-10 day period.
  14. Why not, I'll try my luck. Day 2 outlook DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NO THUNDER AREA WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. MORE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OVER THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN...A BIT LATER/SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...A LEADING WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO KS/NEB BORDER AREA AND THEN CURVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY SAT. A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ORBITING THE UPPER RIDGE AND EMANATING FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST...IN CONCERT WITH THE GREAT PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN MN DURING SAT EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT...GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN NEB TO LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. CONTINUATION OF AFOREMENTIONED NOCTURNALLY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AMIDST INCREASING...BUT GENERALLY CAPPED INSTABILITY...FROM NEB ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST EAST INTO LOWER MI AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST OH LATE INTO SAT NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN FORCING AND ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH UNDERGOES STRONGER AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER...DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
  15. Time to get this thread going since we actually have images worth posting. I'll start with my own. April 27th: Mayflower/Vilonia, AR April 28th: Tupelo, MS April 28th: Louisville, MS
  16. Now that model agreement among the GFS ensembles, the GFS operational, the ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensembles are coming into more general agreement re: the timing of our next severe threat, I've decided to start a thread. For starters, models are keying in on a general re-loading pattern over the next five to six days with a +PNA giving way to a -PNA and a broad Western trough setting up. At the same time the MJO is forecast to be in or entering into a weak Phase 1 state over the Atlantic and W Africa with little real change in the -NAO state. Models are showing a high-quality warm sector setting up over the srn Plains by days four and five with a Sonoran EML overspreading nrn TX, OK, and KS. By day five broad lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur east of the Rockies, with a broad southerly return flow advecting a seasonably moist air mass north. While there are capping issues to contend with, especially with the positively tilted trough forecast to set up, overall the set-up would support about a three-day period for convection beginning perhaps with initation along the dryline as early as day four. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear the threat for tornadoes and severe wx generally is likely to be fairly localized, which could either be a bane or a boon to chasers depending on how the mesoscale sets up. Still, it's better than nothing! SPC seems interested: AS A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES/DEEPENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH-PLAINS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THUS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STEADILY MODIFYING GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE BEING ADVECTED NWD THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THE WED-FRI TIME PERIOD /DAYS 6-8/...INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE CAPE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...THUS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID HOWEVER...MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING. WHILE THE GFS ADVANCES A LARGE TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED NRN- AND SRN-STREAM SYSTEMS -- EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILARLY-TIMED NRN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCE INTO THE NRN PLAINS BUT A STATIONARY -- OR EVEN RETROGRADING -- SRN-STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH. WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATIONS ALSO THEREFORE MANIFEST IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS VICINITY...TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY DELINEATING RISK AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM. HOWEVER...AS UNCERTAINTY DIMINISHES WITH TIME AND RISK AREAS BECOME MORE CLEAR...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY AREAS TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES AND VICINITY.
  17. Well this one seems to have snuck up on us a bit, the strong trough moving across the Four Corners tomorrow will become increasing neutral/negatively tilted and spread strong shear profiles across a large section of the Gulf Coast region by tomorrow evening associated with a rapid developing surface low. In addition to that, strong moisture advection south of a retreating warm front (speed of the movement will be crucial with the expectation of a large amount of precip along it) should provide at least modest instability despite average mid level lapse rates. The trough orientation/low level wind fields appear highly favorable for supercells and potentially a few significant tornadoes across LA and S MS into S AL later into the evening (somewhat reminiscent of Christmas 2012 in terms of threat area and the concern about warm frontal movement). This thread can be moved at the mods' discretion since this will be a likely be a multi-region event, perhaps continuing further into the SE/EC on Monday. In any case, this D1 is a borderline moderate risk for tornadoes and is an excellent discussion from Peters and Dr. Marsh.
  18. Seems a good time to start this given we now have a D3 slight for the eastern Plains, Ozarks and Mid/Lower MS Valleys for Thursday. In addition, it appears Friday into Saturday could hold potential as well for the Arklamiss and Mid MS Valley/perhaps approaching the TN Valley later in the day as a strong pool of instability (1500-3000+ J/kg on both the 00z Euro and GFS) interacts with another low amplitude and progressive s/w trough. Cyclogenesis and resulting wind profiles likely won't be as strong as they are on Thursday, but they should still be enough to cause a problem given storm development.
  19. Hello everyone! My name is April Vogt, and I am a 24 year old undergraduate at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. I have been working on an ongoing project revolving around tornado predicting. As of this year, I devised a hypothesis correlated around years of research that may be able to predict the touch down zone and path of a tornado. With this, I devised a project entitled "The `Lo`Lo Project" where I plan to conduct experiments to either support/disprove my hypothesis. After speaking with people who have experience in the field of meteorology, and a few in tornado research, I have been supported and given more sources to analyze that are yet to disprove my idea. I just started a website discussing the project. Some portions (such as the research and experiment portions) are not fully complete (they are informational for one learning about the project). I am continuing to expand this site and am hoping to have it completed in the next week. Please let me know what you think, I am excited to respond to questions/comments/concerns. Also if you have facebook please like us as well. Look forward to your response (: April V Website: http://loloproject.weebly.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theloloproject
  20. Thoughts on deep storm Gulf of Mex into US mainland next week?
  21. Figured I'd combine the two threads this time, but it is near the start of the new year. Given the relatively neutral/weak positive ENSO currently and increased likelihood of development of a possible La Nada/transition phase ENSO during the Spring, this could be a fairly active season, accented by the increased snow pack this year over the Northern States and Canada compared to last, which should lead to enhancement of the baroclinic zone (at least earlier on through March and April) should it be largely maintained through the later winter months. My initial guess for number of tornadoes would probably fall roughly in the 1300-1350 range. For first high risk, I'll go with April 9th.
  22. huronicane

    June 19, 2009

    In 2009, only 3 tornadoes were recorded to have touched down in Michigan. All three were on June 19, and all three occurred without a tornado warning. I want to write a case study on the event, and I've pulled a lot of data already, but there's one thing I can't find and was wondering if anyone could help me track it down. I'd love to get my hands on RUC soundings for KAZO. I've tried looking on rucsoundings.noaa.gov, but haven't been able to pull anything up. If anybody can help me track these down, it would be much appreciated.
  23. Decided to start this early this year and just add images as the year goes on. January 30th: Adairsville, GA
  24. I know next to nothing about medium range severe weather possibilities/threats, but thought it might be nice for those in the know to discuss the medium range pertaining to that in this thread. Might be a nice thing to look back on at a later time, to see how the models and hobbyists handled things...correctly or incorrectly.
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