December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[navchi21]

Whats the wind profile looking like for this system?

[snowstormcanuck]

North south north north now south. Crazy gradient in se mi on tonight's run. Dare I say new years all over again...

 

It has been oscillating a bit with the snow swath but for 5-6 days out you can't ask for much more out of a model.

[toronto blizzard]

It has been oscillating a bit with the snow swath but for 5-6 days out you can't ask for much more out of a model.

It has been incredibly consistent.

[Hoosier]

00z Euro is kinda interesting around here in a bizarre, depressing way.  ~3.5" of rain with temps in the mid 30s is something I haven't seen before.

[snowstormcanuck]

It has been incredibly consistent.

 

text almost ready?

[Stevo6899]

It has been oscillating a bit with the snow swath but for 5-6 days out you can't ask for much more out of a model.

Agreed. Don't see a model this consistent this so far out. Usually there's a few runs where track, qpf are drastically different.

[KeenerWx]

00z Euro is kinda interesting around here in a bizarre, depressing way.  ~3.5" of rain with temps in the mid 30s is something I haven't seen before.

 

I may end up "chasing" this thing to avoid the depression of 35 and rain for hours and hours. 

[dmc76]

North south north north now south. Crazy gradient in se mi on tonight's run. Dare I say new years all over again...

 

It's unlikely but That storm popped up in my head as well... Ajdos South would not be to happy

[kab2791]

Haven't seen this color much on the wunderground maps, especially in this region...

[toronto blizzard]

text almost ready?

The person I get it from is most likely in bed right now so probably won't be able to post it until later this morning around 5-6 am

[snowstormcanuck]

The person I get it from is most likely in bed right now so probably won't be able to post it until later this morning around 5-6 am

 

No prob. Nothing but wx porn anyways.

[Stebo]

To me the big take away from tonight's runs is that both the GFS and Euro were colder and south a bit, the clown models of GGEM and Ukie I am not at all concerned about. Also the fact that other than minor nudges the Euro has pretty much locked on a solution and has for several runs now.

[KeenerWx]

No prob. Nothing but wx porn anyways.

 

YYZ

 

SUN 00Z 22-DEC 0.2 -0.7 1016 92 67 0.01 557 544

SUN 06Z 22-DEC -0.5 -0.2 1013 96 100 0.15 557 547

SUN 12Z 22-DEC -1.6 0.0 1007 94 99 0.76 554 549

SUN 18Z 22-DEC -2.6 0.6 1004 91 72 0.78 552 549

MON 00Z 23-DEC -4.9 -2.4 1007 85 94 0.08 547 541

MON 06Z 23-DEC -7.1 -7.4 1011 84 97 0.08 542 533

MON 12Z 23-DEC -9.9 -10.6 1018 80 94 0.04 537 523 

[toronto blizzard]

To me the big take away from tonight's runs is that both the GFS and Euro were colder and south a bit, the clown models of GGEM and Ukie I am not at all concerned about.

Well said Stebo.

[Hoosier]

I may end up "chasing" this thing to avoid the depression of 35 and rain for hours and hours. 

 

 

Sounds good. 

 

I may have exaggerated about the Euro a bit.  Looks like maybe a little something wintry on the front end but not positive without looking at text data.

[Thundersnow12]

Geesh look at the strength placement of the high for the 12z Sunday timeframe. The Euro has it at 1036mb over SD where the GFS is much weaker (1028mb) and further north.

[toronto blizzard]

No prob. Nothing but wx porn anyways.

Yes it is wx porn. Just a sick run. Anyways YYZ text has been posted by another poster.

[chances14]

North south north north now south. Crazy gradient in se mi on tonight's run. Dare I say new years all over again...

Are you referring to New Year's Eve 2007 storm? That was a heck of a snowstorm in my neck of the woods. I believe that was the last time we got over 12" or close to it. I remember waking up on New Year's Day and I couldn't see any cars in my driveway as they were buried in snow

Anyways, latest Wxbell euro snow map shows almost 2 feet of snow imby

[cyclone77]

I'd love to see a 925mb temp available on the Euro.  Maybe there is somewhere and I'm missing it.  I'm guessing there must be a warm layer somewhere as the thickness values hold at or above 540 deep into the sub 0C 850mb/surface temp region.  Obviously thickness values aren't the end all or anything, but I'd kill to see a sounding in an area where the surface/850 is well below freezing, yet well above 540.  For that reason I'm gonna remain a little hesitant to go too crazy with the WxBell clownies.

 

Guess I'll answer my own question.  This is off the 00z GFS, but shows why thickness values hang above 540 well into sub 850/surface subfreezing region.  There's a layer of warm air above 850 on this GFS forecast sounding, which is over the QC at 102hr.  This would likely indicate a sleet scenario, as the precip would melt through that warm layer, and then refreeze down in the colder boundary layer.  Anyway, I guess I'm playing devil's advocate in pointing out that these relatively high thickness values aren't something to overlook..

 

[toronto blizzard]

YYZ

SUN 00Z 22-DEC 0.2 -0.7 1016 92 67 0.01 557 544

SUN 06Z 22-DEC -0.5 -0.2 1013 96 100 0.15 557 547

SUN 12Z 22-DEC -1.6 0.0 1007 94 99 0.76 554 549

SUN 18Z 22-DEC -2.6 0.6 1004 91 72 0.78 552 549

MON 00Z 23-DEC -4.9 -2.4 1007 85 94 0.08 547 541

MON 06Z 23-DEC -7.1 -7.4 1011 84 97 0.08 542 533

MON 12Z 23-DEC -9.9 -10.6 1018 80 94 0.04 537 523

Thanks for posting this.

[snowstormcanuck]

YYZ

 

SUN 00Z 22-DEC 0.2 -0.7 1016 92 67 0.01 557 544

SUN 06Z 22-DEC -0.5 -0.2 1013 96 100 0.15 557 547

SUN 12Z 22-DEC -1.6 0.0 1007 94 99 0.76 554 549

SUN 18Z 22-DEC -2.6 0.6 1004 91 72 0.78 552 549

MON 00Z 23-DEC -4.9 -2.4 1007 85 94 0.08 547 541

MON 06Z 23-DEC -7.1 -7.4 1011 84 97 0.08 542 533

MON 12Z 23-DEC -9.9 -10.6 1018 80 94 0.04 537 523 

 

Thanks Keener!

 

Definitely colder at the sfc in comparison to 12z. 850 is a touch warm but workable. It's warm tongues at other levels that I'd be worried about.

[Thundersnow12]

Sounds good. 

 

I may have exaggerated about the Euro a bit.  Looks like maybe a little something wintry on the front end but not positive without looking at text data.

 

SAT 18Z 21-DEC   1.7     7.2    1013       95     100    0.09     562     552   

SUN 00Z 22-DEC   2.5     6.0    1009      98     100    0.43     563     555   

SUN 06Z 22-DEC   2.0     6.2    1003      96      97     1.09     560     557   

SUN 12Z 22-DEC   1.5     6.9    1002      96      83     1.50     556     554   

SUN 18Z 22-DEC   0.9     2.2    1004      96      54     0.23     550     547   

MON 00Z 23-DEC  -0.7    -6.2   1014      90      90     0.02     548     538   

MON 06Z 23-DEC  -4.1    -9.7   1022      85      69     0.02     545     529

[DAFF]

2" of rain here in the Windsor region would be crap..... I hope the southern trend continues.

[Hoosier]

SAT 18Z 21-DEC   1.7     7.2    1013       95     100    0.09     562     552   

SUN 00Z 22-DEC   2.5     6.0    1009      98     100    0.43     563     555   

SUN 06Z 22-DEC   2.0     6.2    1003      96      97     1.09     560     557   

SUN 12Z 22-DEC   1.5     6.9    1002      96      83     1.50     556     554   

SUN 18Z 22-DEC   0.9     2.2    1004      96      54     0.23     550     547   

MON 00Z 23-DEC  -0.7    -6.2   1014      90      90     0.02     548     538   

MON 06Z 23-DEC  -4.1    -9.7   1022      85      69     0.02     545     529

 

 

Interesting.  The Wunderground maps show much more precip in here by 18z Sat but maybe that's like a 24 hour total or something.

 

Anyway, that's a keeper.  I dare anyone to beat that in terms of misery. 

[Ajdos]

That new years storm... This is funny because my cousin from Germany was visiting us at that time we had that new years slush fest, well guess what she just arrived today for another visit. LOL O yeah, and I actually drove like 15 miles to my N/W for her to see how deep the snow is, since they don't get a lot back in Germany.. LOL  Sad part is I promised her a foot of snow and got a bunch slush..what a shame lol

[Stebo]

Guess I'll answer my own question.  This is off the 00z GFS, but shows why thickness values hang above 540 well into sub 850/surface subfreezing region.  There's a layer of warm air above 850 on this GFS forecast sounding, which is over the QC at 102hr.  This would likely indicate a sleet scenario, as the precip would melt through that warm layer, and then refreeze down in the colder boundary layer.  Anyway, I guess I'm playing devil's advocate in pointing out that these relatively high thickness values aren't something to overlook..

 

 

You'd wet bulb that down below freezing with the dry air in that layer, that is a heavy snow scenario.

[Thundersnow12]

It will be interesting to see how many offices favor the Euro and the ones that don't, explain why not.

[Stebo]

It will be interesting to see how many offices favor the Euro and the ones that don't, explain why not.

 

With the GFS showing a similar track albeit with much less QPF at the very least they will be zeroing in on the track, although most would probably discount how dry the GFS, compared to other models.

[Justin]

Guess I'll answer my own question.  This is off the 00z GFS, but shows why thickness values hang above 540 well into sub 850/surface subfreezing region.  There's a layer of warm air above 850 on this GFS forecast sounding, which is over the QC at 102hr.  This would likely indicate a sleet scenario, as the precip would melt through that warm layer, and then refreeze down in the colder boundary layer.  Anyway, I guess I'm playing devil's advocate in pointing out that these relatively high thickness values aren't something to overlook..

 

UVM could cool that narrow layer enough that we get predominantly snow though.  If we have an intense enough system...

[cyclone77]

You'd wet bulb that down below freezing with the dry air in that layer, that is a heavy snow scenario.

 

Agree, but I just realized the problem with this sounding was that the precip hadn't began falling in this location yet on the GFS.  The Euro shows thicknesses above 540 in areas where precip is falling, yet has subfreezing surface/850 temps.  Would kill to see what that sounding was like.  I'm guessing there's a warm layer just above 850 much like the GFS sounding.