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Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III


PennMan

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Ok, serious question here. For most of this "torch" that we've been having, parts of Central PA have struggled to warm. I understand inversions and CAD and all that, but what has made it so persistant, and why is it actually returning to some extent on this temperature loop from CTP? I made it up to 60 for about two hours and have now fallen back to 48 degrees.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/analysis/temp_loop.htm

 

attachicon.gif20131222_3956.jpg

 

It's been interesting to watch the at times massive local differences between some places in surface temps as this warm up has tried to push into the area. Distinct lack of wind to completely mix things out is likely a factor. My guess is the line of heavier showers that came through overnight might've been enough to get the warm temps to the surface for a time but with the continued calm conditions the cold ground might be causing variances in temps right at the surface. 

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When the cold air finally gets back in here by tomorrow eve, the pattern going forward looks good..albeit quiet for now. Models have been occasionally trying to make something develop around the 27th, but I doubt we will see much chance for anything big the rest of Christmas week. Teleconnection forecasts are beginning to look supportive of a more typical wintry pattern with the NAO and especially AO forecast to head neutral or negative and the PNA forecast to go positive. Should be interesting if the NAO/AO actually end up spending some time being negative, as they have stayed consistently positive. Meanwhile the main players in our cold and active first half of December, the -EPO (and -WPO), look to remain negative for the time being. I guess the moral of the story is hope the warm weather fans enjoyed the mild weather because it looks seasonably cold at best going into the first week of the new year. 

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It's been interesting to watch the at times massive local differences between some places in surface temps as this warm up has tried to push into the area. Distinct lack of wind to completely mix things out is likely a factor. My guess is the line of heavier showers that came through overnight might've been enough to get the warm temps to the surface for a time but with the continued calm conditions the cold ground might be causing variances in temps right at the surface. 

 

Thanks Mag for the explination!

 

It's been a real roller coaster day temperature-wise here. Since sometime after midnight, the temp went from 38 to 60 to 47 then back up to 61. Now currently sitting at 59.  :wacko:

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Totally perplexed at today's "wild" temperature swings here in Tamaqua. From 38 sometime between midnight and 5:00AM to 60 at 5:30AM, to 47 at 8:30AM, to 61 around 2:30PM, and now back down to 45 at 8:45PM. All this while nearly all locations statewide are 55 or above, including 62 at Scranton, 59 at Allentown, and 61 at Reading!

 

Never before in my life on this earth have I ever seen anything like it.

 

 

Image is from a station a few blocks from my house.

post-317-0-06517400-1387763791_thumb.jpg

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Yesterday's temperature departure from normal was +28F in State College.  I think (and could easily be wrong) the last departure from normal that large here was March 7, 2009 (+29F, 71/55 over a normal of 43/25).  Even in the unbelievably warm March 2012 the highest departure from normal was +26.

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It's amazing how statistically the cold start to winter was wiped away in just two days.  As was an impressive snow pack.  

Today too....midnight high at UNV was 57. IMBY we didn't get over 50 until yesterday late morning, crazily enough. When it broke, it was remarkable how fast it rose.

 

Currently 33. The great warm up of Dec 2013 a memory now.

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Apparently there is a chance for a light snowfall (1" or less) tomorrow?

 

Could be a few snow showers around, maybe some embedded squalls. Lapse rates in the lowest 3 km will be conditionally unstable (around 7-8 k/km based on the RAP) and there will be some lift along the arctic front. The snow showers will move quickly though so I would agree it will probably be a dusting to an inch, most likely for the middle third of PA with respect to latitude. That is where lapse rates will be the highest.

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Could be a few snow showers around, maybe some embedded squalls. Lapse rates in the lowest 3 km will be conditionally unstable (around 7-8 k/km based on the RAP) and there will be some lift along the arctic front. The snow showers will move quickly though so I would agree it will probably be a dusting to an inch, most likely for the middle third of PA with respect to latitude. That is where lapse rates will be the highest.

We just got 1/4" from a snowshower. Starting to pick up again.

 

28 at the current moment.

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