earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it's concerning to see all of the cold air drainage and CAD suddenly disappear. Not sure what caused it but that is alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just curious i do not have access to the nam, But when the nam started off did it line up with where the low is currently on radar? Its not even gonna be close on precip...through 06Z it does not even have snow into western Ohio and its already snowing there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's probably best not to live and die by each run at this point... Especially the nam that 1 run ago had me getting 16" now 2-4" and rain lol Agree, but the trend is not your friend. I would rather have it showing 20 inches of snow tonight instead of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I knew the NAM was up to something profoundly atrocious. This is why I wasn't sucked into the heavy amounts in the first place. I'm not convinced of the warmer solutions either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its not even gonna be close on precip...through 06Z it does not even have snow into western Ohio and its already snowing there I wouldn't take that nam run serious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its not even gonna be close on precip...through 06Z it does not even have snow into western Ohio and its already snowing there Any speculation on this poor run for many people on this board. Just the NAM being the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Agree, but the trend is not your friend. I would rather have it showing 20 inches of snow tonight instead of this run. This is not the first time the nam has consecutive runs then flips to something outrageous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it's concerning to see all of the cold air drainage and CAD suddenly disappear. Not sure what caused it but that is alarming. Hard to imagine that being the case and then 12 hrs pre-event, poof it's gone...and all the other models not seeing it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Agree, but the trend is not your friend. I would rather have it showing 20 inches of snow tonight instead of this run. I rather that it never runs again Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Through 27 hours it doesn't look bad...850 line is still just south of the city and places just west of the city are still below freezing at the surface, and 0.25-0.5'' of QPF has fallen at that point so still a few inches of snow (unless there are other levels above freezing), but then after that the surface temps torch and almost everyone goes to rain. Oh well, it's just one extreme solution but I'll wait until the GFS before becoming too alarmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its not even gonna be close on precip...through 06Z it does not even have snow into western Ohio and its already snowing there Were there any initialization errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Any speculation on this poor run for many people on this board. Just the NAM being the NAM Its probably correct on moving the surface low where it is tomorrow night but its likely very wrong on the start time for the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hi res NAM is just as bad...pretty much no more than a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its not even gonna be close on precip...through 06Z it does not even have snow into western Ohio and its already snowing there sim radar is very close actually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The intialization of the nam is way off... No way it's correct on this run Why would it be wrong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NCEP noted issues with the 12z run. Will be interesting to see how they view this one. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD216 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013VALID DEC 13/1200 UTC THRU DEC 17/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...==============================================12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES==============================================NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TOSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.==============================================...STORM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS/ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEMODELS CONTINUE IN LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT. THERE ARE NOOUTLIERS...AND THE 12Z NAM COULD CERTAINLY BE APPLIED. THE NAMESCAPED OUR PREFERENCE BECAUSE OF SOME DIFFERENCES AT A CRITICALTIME...15/12Z WHEN THE COASTAL PORTION OF THIS STORM ISINTENSIFYING SOUTH OF BOSTON MA. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NAM ISJUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN THE MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLECONSENSUS...AND THIS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MORE STRONGLY BACKEDSURFACE WINDS AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THELOW TRACK. THIS IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AND SHOULD NOT BEIGNORED...BUT FOR OUR PREFERENCE WE SIDE WITH THE EXCELLENTAGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY SEEN IN THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE. THEUKMET IS NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE IT HAS TENDED TO TAKE THE SURFACELOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES OVERSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z CANADIAN DOES SUPPORT THEUKMET...WHERE IT HAD SUPPORTED THE LARGER CONSENSUS DURINGPREVIOUS CYCLES. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL STEADYIN DEPICTING A LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 12Z UKMET ANDCANADIAN SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NCEP noted issues with the 12z run. Will be interesting to see how they view this one. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 216 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 VALID DEC 13/1200 UTC THRU DEC 17/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...STORM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE MODELS CONTINUE IN LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT. THERE ARE NO OUTLIERS...AND THE 12Z NAM COULD CERTAINLY BE APPLIED. THE NAM ESCAPED OUR PREFERENCE BECAUSE OF SOME DIFFERENCES AT A CRITICAL TIME...15/12Z WHEN THE COASTAL PORTION OF THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF BOSTON MA. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN THE MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...AND THIS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MORE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AND SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...BUT FOR OUR PREFERENCE WE SIDE WITH THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY SEEN IN THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE IT HAS TENDED TO TAKE THE SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z CANADIAN DOES SUPPORT THE UKMET...WHERE IT HAD SUPPORTED THE LARGER CONSENSUS DURING PREVIOUS CYCLES. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL STEADY IN DEPICTING A LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. Hoping they can just run the 0 Z NAM again in around 30 minutes for a new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its the nam so take it at that....however all the models underestimated the warmth over the weekend so its not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Its the nam so take it at that....however all the models underestimated the warmth over the weekend so its not out of the question. IMO nothing really has changed, its still raining for most coastal people from 03-04Z onward but the NAM just generates no QPF til 22Z so everyone is running fro the cliff but if you ask me it could still snow like crazy from 22-02Z and it may be snowing from 16-17Z onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just an amatuer observation, but it seems that surface temps on the UHI are running just a few degrees above what was forecast 24 hrs ago. Could this be a sign that the warming trend may be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nam is still a few inches for NYC before the rain so we went from 6"+ to "still a few inches"...and its the NAM so cut whatever you think it says by 3 The NAM basically says, the coast gets NADA Will the poster (dbc I think it was) from yesterday evening please say the NAM is correct NOW or does he feel that since its warm and shows a less snowy scenario it is incorrect now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 At 33 hours the 850mb low is tracking over Albany. ZERO chance of snow with 850 up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it's concerning to see all of the cold air drainage and CAD suddenly disappear. Not sure what caused it but that is alarming. John it was 35 today - what cold air are we referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's going to snow, not going to let the negative posts from the same ol' negative folk take away the joy lol. Tomorrow when everything is whitened, look back on the negativity. It's going to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 John it was 35 today - what cold air are we referring to? To be fair the cold air should drain in overnight but it's definitely above where it should be at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 John it was 35 today - what cold air are we referring to? Every model had significant cold air drainage over the interior in NJ and SE NY tonight into tomorrow. The NAM suddenly increased temperatures dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I've been dropping a degree an hour here in CNJ, down below 28 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 24/12 Temp/DP here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Every model had significant cold air drainage over the interior in NJ and SE NY tonight into tomorrow. The NAM suddenly increased temperatures dramatically. They had it last Sunday also and instead we rose into the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM way better than the NAM on precip advancing in...here is its 21-00Z period...dont have any thermals yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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