JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wait.. this event starts at 8am base on the GFS and it light until 5-6PM.. , it's going to be a long day tomorrow here on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hopefully the GFS is finally coming back to reality temp-wise. Good to see it's getting colder for longer down by our region. Maybe we can hold onto frozen/snow until late evening. I have always thought that u hav to get to 287 and 80 to be all snow , I do however question the back side of this at hr 42 . I`ve seen CCB on the back side from a deepening departing low but they are rare , not sure if this is just junk , usually this stuff doesn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Radars filling in nice with the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Do you think LI can get 6-7 inches of snow and .10" ZR glaze with this new 18Z GFS? 1993-1994 is back from the dead, that is for sure. Changes to rain that fail to happen on the coast, can taste it. The horns and bells of winter are deafening load this year. Thank goodness the squeeze box, or outhouse is gone, or its freeze your bunz off .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wait.. this event starts at 8am base on the GFS and it light until 5-6PM.. , it's going to be a long day tomorrow here on the forum. Yeah only a little more than a quarter inch falls by 0z tomorrow evening.. basically three inches in 10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 There is the chance that the models will now pull back on the warmth a bit, realizing the frigid air in place. Like I said....surprise possibly in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah only a little more than a quarter inch falls by 0z tomorrow evening.. basically three inches in 10 hours Yea I think much of that will fall as virga till early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Do you think LI can get 6-7 inches of snow and .10" ZR glaze with this new 18Z GFS? 1993-1994 is back from the dead, that is for sure. Changes to rain that fail to happrn on the coast, can taste it. I remember that event. It does feel that we will be on a roller coaster. I hate when we start out with snow, then the south shore of Nassau surges to the mid 40's. This might be a nice snowstorm with mixed at the end with only liquid really further out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wait.. this event starts at 8am base on the GFS and it light until 5-6PM.. , it's going to be a long day tomorrow here on the forum. Oh those are my favorite. It's not sticking! This storm is a bust! All the precip is light and disorganized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 18z cut back a little on the QPF from 12z closer to the other models and the changeover is approaching the South Shore beaches around 0z like the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh those are my favorite. It's not sticking! This storm is a bust! All the precip is light and disorganized! Agreed! It will be cold to start, everything sticks, going to be a nice stay at home day, the majority snow for most. Just would like to see NYC and western LI get bumped up to a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Do you think LI can get 6-7 inches of snow and .10" ZR glaze with this new 18Z GFS? 1993-1994 is back from the dead, that is for sure. Changes to rain that fail to happen on the coast, can taste it. The horns and bells of winter are deafening load this year. Thank goodness the squeeze box, or outhouse is gone, or its freeze your bunz off .... Still highly unlikely anyone on Long Island gets more than 4"... maybe 5". We would need a huge shift to allow more than that. We can get heavier precip but that would mean more warm air. The mid level centers don't close off in time for us, and the low is going to track very close to the coast. None of those are favorable for us. Expect a light snow event in the afternoon and early evening, some sleet, then rain which will likely wash most or all of it away. Any more than that, jump for joy because this just isn't a setup for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh those are my favorite. It's not sticking! This storm is a bust! All the precip is light and disorganized! Well everyone reading this right now should take note of this. Forecast is for the Moderate-heavy stuff to come later on in the evening. Perhaps tomorrow everyone here should remember this when posting. Perhaps treat it like we're still a day out. Come here to check the 6z and 12z and even 18z models just like one would do 24 hours before and do not worry what is happening outside your window so much until the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 18z cut back a little on the QPF from 12z closer to the other models and the changeover is approaching the South Shore beaches around 0z like the 12z run. As that guy said in Stephan King's, "The Stand", "M-o-o-n, that spells", we're screwed on the coast... "M-o-o-n, that spells", gotta be N and W of NYC. "M-o-o-n, that spells", buy a tighter belt to keep those pants up, by the way its pinging already, but the radar looks like 3-4 inch per hour snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 There is the chance that the models will now pull back on the warmth a bit, realizing the frigid air in place. Like I said....surprise possibly in store Yes! Thank you! I have been telling people that I think the models are changing over when/where they shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still highly unlikely anyone on Long Island gets more than 4"... maybe 5". We would need a huge shift to allow more than that. We can get heavier precip but that would mean more warm air. The mid level centers don't close off in time for us, and the low is going to track very close to the coast. None of those are favorable for us. Expect a light snow event in the afternoon and early evening, some sleet, then rain which will likely wash most or all of it away. Any more than that, jump for joy because this just isn't a setup for us. And each of the last few events found a way to hit to lower range of model snowfall projections here on Long Island. Sunday heavier precip stayed south and dews verified higher on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 And each of the last few events found a way to hit to lower range of model snowfall projections here on Long Island. Sunday heavier precip stayed south and dews verified higher on Tuesday. Maybe this can be the one to beat expectations finally. I still think the models might be warming the surface too much, which could at least buy us an hour or two past 0z. It'll at least be good to see accumulating snow tomorrow, however fleeting that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Go out tomorrow and take a walk and enjoy the pre snow scent in the air! I love that cold and moist snowy scent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 And each of the last few events found a way to hit to lower range of model snowfall projections here on Long Island. Sunday heavier precip stayed south and dews verified higher on Tuesday. Any possibility some could see what Philadelphia saw last Sunday with the warm air advection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Two events I recall when living in Brooklyn, NY February 9th, 1969 Snow Sunday morning mixing with and changing to rain...24 hours later 15 inches. January 1978 Snow, 2-4 inches mixing with and changing to a windswept heavy rain. Yes, it did change to rain for 15 minutes at the end after 13 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We've lost very little of our 3" from Tuesday. Always cool to get snow on top of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Upton has 3-6 for my area. Snow to sleet andfreezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Tonight's write up will be out in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 When do tonight's major model runs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Do you think LI can get 6-7 inches of snow and .10" ZR glaze with this new 18Z GFS? 1993-1994 is back from the dead, that is for sure. Changes to rain that fail to happen on the coast, can taste it. The horns and bells of winter are deafening load this year. Thank goodness the squeeze box, or outhouse is gone, or its freeze your bunz off .... if we keep the +NAO alive all winter 1993-1994 will be a good comparison, i believe. 90% of the posters in this subforum have no idea what that winter was like, that winter was the last true winter in NYC (95-96, 02-03, 09-10 and 10-11 get honorable mention but none of those combined REAL cold and elements like 93-94)....imagine going from near or blow zero to upper 40's- mid 50's in 24 hours....it happened a few times in just 3 weeks that winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 There is the chance that the models will now pull back on the warmth a bit, realizing the frigid air in place. Like I said....surprise possibly in store it was 33-37 degrees today - that is frigid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Go out tomorrow and take a walk and enjoy the pre snow scent in the air! I love that cold WARM and moist snowy scent! fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 it was 33-37 degrees today - that is frigid? Tomorrow's high for me isn't expected to get out of the low 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think Upton's totals for the shore shore are a bit overdone. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Two events I recall when living in Brooklyn, NY February 9th, 1969 Snow Sunday morning mixing with and changing to rain...24 hours later 15 inches. January 1978 Snow, 2-4 inches mixing with and changing to a windswept heavy rain. Yes, it did change to rain for 15 minutes at the end after 13 inches of snow those are two of the most famous snow events in NYC history. Lindsay storm was a true miller B, not even close to a comp to this storm. Jan 1978 was a miller A, also not a comp.....this is more like the early feb 94/dec 02 event that was supposed to changeover (2/94) that never did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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