CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Dam cold as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Had some flurries here earlier. Cold and windy.... Completely under dressed for the weather today Flurries here as well, though they're being eaten alive on the way down. Temps have hardly moved since 8 AM, but dews have dropped from 20s to mid-teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Dam cold as modeled. Frigid Sunday night at Gillette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 euro has a 2-m of 29F at ORH at 18z Mon. 32 BOS, 33 BDL and HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 mid-week wave is pretty progressive. clips the region. very cold turkey day on backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 the extended range is crap...so we'll hope that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Thanks for the pbp...too hard to look on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yeah the Tday storm could be the one to watch, it looks like there will be a timing issue with a the reinforcing cold shot & the wave down south. They Day 10 pattern does look pretty boring & bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Cold stabs in and lifts out. Shocking for late November/early december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 How much snow mid week? Maybe an inch or two from a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Cold stabs in and lifts out. Shocking for late November/early december.Def not shocking , lets just pray that polar vortex splitsThou it would be mildly amusing to see a powderfreak meltdown if early dec start's a prolonged mild and dry period. Trees sagging w snow now, bare and blowing in mild sw breezes w dew points around 30. In all seriousness thou i am concerned of a dry and mild winter, no panic but just more of a concern this year w a drier overall pattern in most of the ne and a few indicators which are seemingly reliable pointing to a ++AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pretty bad run . Good news is Euro has sucked so we won't weigh it high I just looked for myself. What's wrong with this run? The long range could be fun with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 There is a brief split in the PV upcoming and it assists in this serious cold shot we have coming early next week, but its also preventing the -nao that some of the guidance was trying to develop as the split piece swing back scross greenland from hudson's bay...then regathers itself in the long range...Better to have something disturbing that thing than nothing though I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 I just looked for myself. What's wrong with this run? The long range could be fun with that look. Looks like we'd torch shortly after the D10 look...but it means very little at this point. It has a +EPO/+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Looks like we'd torch shortly after the D10 look...but it means very little at this point. It has a +EPO/+NAOAnd the ensembles don't have a +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I just looked for myself. What's wrong with this run? The long range could be fun with that look. it looks pretty bad at the end. but it's 10 days out so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 And the ensembles don't have a +EPO They show a similar relaxation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 And the ensembles don't have a +EPO They started to bring the EPO up near the end of their run last night...so its a possibility. The OP +EPO was kind of a skinny trough up there so I doubt it happens that quick, but the ensembles were lowering the heights there in the D12-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I just looked for myself. What's wrong with this run? The long range could be fun with that look. It doesn't show seven snowstorms between now and d10? Pretty typical old school late fall. Some nice cold shots surrounded by pockets of warmer weather with storm chances with each change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 OT: "In 1657, Massachusetts Bay froze solid" David Frum CNN contributing edt. I'm trying to get my head around a scenario where you could walk from the shores of Hingham to the outer arm of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I gotta not look on my phone while I'm on the toity with bad 3G. We're getting some great cold and if it warms in December maybe we'll continue following the 1993 evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Agree with Cisco, here. Mentioned this a few posts ago that all runs since 00z last night have continuity issues. Very difficult to trust anything in the middle and extended (more so than normal uncertainty for these time ranges) "THE SPLIT FLOW AT THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS` WORTH OF DATA RUNS ..... THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES WITHIN BOTH STREAMS HAVE BEEN DISPARATELY HANDLED--BOTH INTER- AND INTRAMODEL." I'm looking at the basic teleconnector spread, and assuming that some form of sanity emerges from the smoothed mean ... and I still see things as cold and volatile through the first week of December. I would not be surprised if at any given time in the nearer run cycles, if one or two of those storms now vanished were to make a return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I gotta not look on my phone while I'm on the toity with bad 3G.We're getting some great cold and if it warms in December maybe we'll continue following the 1993 evolution. Ya or maybe we take a crap but i think we shovel prior to dec 7'th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pretty bullish for day 6-10 at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pretty bullish for day 6-10 at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 a3.jpg that mean pattern would probably be good below 40N, yes? progressive and a bit suppressed for NE? Or course it is just a mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Still a very strong Aleutian ridge modeled and even getting into wrn AK in the long range, so that's good. Take it FWIW though. Very ++ NAO too. The line shall be walked I think. I could see a warm first few days or so to start December before it cools again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Still a very strong Aleutian ridge modeled and even getting into wrn AK in the long range, so that's good. Take it FWIW though. Very ++ NAO too. The line shall be walked I think. I could see a warm first few days or so to start December before it cools again. Lord knows I've been wrong before but I don't see a warm first few days of December... The EPO rebulges downward, and despite whatever operational trends there are for the NAO, the nightly derivatives are still indicating a -NAO actually. All the while, the AO is corrected down to neutral. Perhaps a transient warm sector before a predominating cold signal reloads, I could go with that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Still a very strong Aleutian ridge modeled and even getting into wrn AK in the long range, so that's good. Take it FWIW though. Very ++ NAO too. The line shall be walked I think. I could see a warm first few days or so to start December before it cools again. yeah i think it's definitely a fine line after the first cold shot gets through here. maybe the second has legs as well (around / just after turkey day). from there...the flow looks rather flat across the conus but there's plenty of cold in canada to offset that. i just hope we aren't watching -20C 850s continuously drop to james bay and then rotate due E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Lord knows I've been wrong before but I don't see a warm first few days of December... The EPO rebulges downward, and despite whatever operational trends there are for the NAO, the nightly derivatives are still indicating a -NAO actually. All the while, the AO is corrected down to neutral. Perhaps a transient warm sector before a predominating cold signal reloads, I could go with that. We'll see. personally think the smart $ is on the NAO being positive - if not strongly positive. it might dip negative for a very brief interlude...but i don't see a favorable pattern. those spaghetti charts are poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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