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November 2013 pattern and discussion

WxJordan

By WxJordan,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

 

This is 4 of the 06z GFS Ensemble members.  The operational run on the left shows the farther west / not as sharp ridge axis extending into SW Canada, while the P1 member shows how that ridge breaks / rolls over and digs the shortwave farther southeast, similar to the last two Euro runs.

 

 

 

As you pointed out the 6z GEFS did have a few members that showed a good snow event for the MA/SE, that was nice to see.

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1300m

1300m

Posted
Posted

Looks like the 12z GFS keeps the trough positively tilted with some very late phasing, but it is essentially a dry fropa. Looks like the GFS has found it's day 3 to 5 solution, so it probably won't change much until Monday night or Tuesday -- if it does. It will be interesting to see if the Euro continues to hold serve today.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Looks like the 12z GFS keeps the trough positively tilted with some very late phasing, but it is essentially a dry fropa. Looks like the GFS has found it's day 3 to 5 solution, so it probably won't change much until Monday night or Tuesday -- if it does. It will be interesting to see if the Euro continues to hold serve today.

 

Just by the thickness maps some of GA,SC,NC may see one or two tiny flakes.  If anything at all. (outside the mountains)

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

Doesn't it seem like this happened last year - almost exactly like this?

 

Euro seemed dialed in to a snow event for about 4 days or something similar, then conceded to the GFS solution...it just seems so familiar. Not like "There goes the ole' Dr. No again" familiar, but like this happened almost verbatim last season.

 

*** EDIT ***

 

I'm almost positive it was last January (see image)

 

THIS IMAGE IS FROM THE JANUARY PATTERN and STORM DISCUSSION II Thread (NOT CURRENT)

 

734212_389961521096848_710628374_n.jpg

 

Even the last two days of our current EURO solution is strikingly similar.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

12z GFS may look like crap at face value but when compared to its past couple runs at ~day 5, there is improvement. For one, this run has more energy near the base compared to 0z, and the whole thing is not nearly as detached from the Bay of Fundy vort at compared to 6z. I will give a cautious nod to the euro 120 hrs out with 2 days worth of reasonable continuity. It is likely too amped, but a progressive setup it is not.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

12z GFS has the digging vort max crossing the southern apps moving from NW to SE which is perpendicular to the chain.  This results in a lee trough and a small area of enhanced precip in NE GA and NE SC.  That would be a quick 1" or so in those locations before the vort passes on to the SE.  

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Doesn't it seem like this happened last year - almost exactly like this?

 

Euro seemed dialed in to a snow event for about 4 days or something similar, then conceded to the GFS solution...it just seems so familiar. Not like "There goes the ole' Dr. No again" familiar, but like this happened almost verbatim last season.

 

On the Feb event last year that brought the thundersnow across the SC upstate, the Euro really missed on that one while the GFS was much better.  This setup is similar, but the one last year had more of a neutral tilted trough as opposed to positive tilted.  To get anything other than token light snow, you really need to see the closed off, slower solution per the Euro.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

WPC is sticking close to the ecens mean in there extended disco, model diagnostic disco recommends a ecmwf/ukmet/ggem blend out west, seems they are not weighting the GFS/GEFS much if any right now.

IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS... BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIESIN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD SEND A COLDAIRMASS SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD BEHIND DIGGING TROUGHINGTHROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/D4 AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED/D5. THEPAST SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLES HAVE SEEN VARIOUSDEGREES OF CUTTING OFF THE SW PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGYSOMEWHERE IN THE EAST... BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OFSPREAD AS TO WHERE THAT MAY OCCUR. THE 00Z ECMWF REPRESENTS ONE OFTHE SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTIONS WHICH CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW OVERVA/NC AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE THU/D6 WHILETHE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN CLOSE OFF THE ENERGY MUCH FARTHER TO THENORTHEAST NEAR NEW ENGLAND LATE WED/D5. THE GFS HAS SHOWN ANYTHINGAND EVERYTHING RECENTLY FROM A SLOWER/CLOSED SYSTEM YESTERDAY TO AMUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TO A SEPARATE BUT WEAK SYSTEMBREAKING OFF OVER NC/SC. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW THESEVARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF MEMBERS SLOWER/DEEPER THAN THEGEFS MEMBERS. PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE 00Z ECENS MEAN WITH THISUPDATED FORECAST... WHICH STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ASYSTEM TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST. IT HAS OFFERED BETTERCONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEANAND MAINTAINS BETTER WPC CONTINUITY WHILE LEAVING ROOM TO MODIFYFUTURE FORECASTS.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Comments from DT's FB page. Hahahaha!

"finally the posting of the GFS ensemble to show or

PROVE the op GFS is consistent with regard to East

coast low is worthless. All of the GFS ensembles

have the same problems the GFS has so throwing

up piles of moose crap onto a bigger pile of moose

crap does not change the Moose crap into a

diamond."

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

On the Feb event last year that brought the thundersnow across the SC upstate, the Euro really missed on that one while the GFS was much better.  This setup is similar, but the one last year had more of a neutral tilted trough as opposed to positive tilted.  To get anything other than token light snow, you really need to see the closed off, slower solution per the Euro.

 

That one in February actually put down close to 3" in a 3 hour span for me.

 

If you get a chance, read through that January thread (particularly pages 5 - around 10 or 11).  It's like we're having the same discussion.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

dont look now but at 120 finally euro gets going and western nc down thru the upstate of sc and through central ga all 1-2"

 

EDIT: and at 126hr the same story.  good run for ga and upstate sc as well as western nc this run.

Yeah, I saw that and thought I was dreaming or something...looks good at 144 given the cold air mass that works in ahead of time

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

Posted
Posted

That looks like most of NC shoudl see snow, though.

 

With the overall trend it won't be too long until we see nada. 

 

 
12Z Euro is much more believable Still has snow in the Carolinas, maybe but my gut feeling is that it's more NC/VA than NC/SC. We'll see.
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1300m

1300m

Posted
Posted

Really not surprised that the phased cutoff scenario disappeared. The ECMWF has a long history now of over-phasing systems. That said, if we can get a little more neutrally tilted trough most of us could still see some flakes flying next week. That's really all I've hoped for out of this system from the start, and I think that is still on the table.

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