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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Per this link...can I PLEASE lock in the euro?

http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.html

 

DTW gets 0.77" qpf with the Jan 1-2 storm, all snow with temps from 14F to 19F. Then....another storm hits Jan 5/6, dropping 1.10" qpf (nearly all snow, perhaps a brief mix at onset) before the arctic hound unleash and the temp at hour 240 is -11F. Winter is making a furious return!

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We could be seeing another Jan '09 type of setup later in the period.  We hit -32 here, while Sterling bottomed out at -36. 

 

January 09 or 99? Lol, or both.

 

I hope the EURO changes its tune. FYI- That would be next Tuesday morning if that verified.

 

Gilbert - actually only -24° there.

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polar vortex ready to say hi to lake michigan

 

Brutal..

 

 

-30° here at 216 hours on the EURO! 2m temperature that is.

 

attachicon.gifeuro_216hr_2mtemp.png

 

I hope that does not happen!

 

The lake saving the day here. Probably have a LE sand blizzard which wont make it feel any better outside.

 

 

beavis is probably stoked....dude almost never posts about events other than deep cold

 

 

I think he had to go change his shorts.

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1050+ high traverses Iowa/Missouri into Illinois/Indiana by 228.  Huge blast of cold air moving in over widespread deep snow cover, at damn near the climatologically coldest time of the year.  This could get very interesting.

 

 

The obvious first question is whether the Euro is correct with its extreme depiction.  GFS has some very cold air but not to that extreme.  I'm with you though...it would get very interesting if the Euro pans out as you'd have multiple factors coming together to potentially maximize the cold at the surface.

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and so it begins, from IND

 

...

INTERESTING TO SEE BOTH THE ECMWF AND OP GFS   HINTING AT A STRONG PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO   THE GREAT LAKES JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE   SHOT OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY   8-9 DAYS FROM NOW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN   THE DAYS TO COME.  
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and so it begins, from IND

 

...

INTERESTING TO SEE BOTH THE ECMWF AND OP GFS   HINTING AT A STRONG PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO   THE GREAT LAKES JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE   SHOT OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY   8-9 DAYS FROM NOW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN   THE DAYS TO COME.  

 

That was a nice treat at the end of the AFD.  I'd love to see it verify. 

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I screenshot the January map from JB yesterday than was dismissed as fodder.  Let's see how this verifies now that people seem to be on board with the cold. 

 

 

JB and Joe D have been nailing it. 

This could be a huge coup for them, potentially their first successful winter call since their new company started up. I'm a fan of Joe D especially, so I'm rooting for him.

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Incredible GFS run. Nowhere to go but down lol, but regardless winter looks to be settling right back in after its brief hiatus.

 

384-hour snowfall is 20-22" for DTW/DET, 22-24" for ARB, 24-27" for BTL, and a lollipop of 27-30" in extreme SW MI.

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif

I'm sure if this verifies, the old timers will be saying things like "this is just like it was when I was a kid" or "this is how it always used to be".

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