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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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ILN has just updated their discussion:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

MAJOR WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. BROAD SWRLY
FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMGRY SHOWING IMPULSE
LIFTING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY DURG AFTN/EVENING HOURS. THE AREA IS ALSO IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 180 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH PROVIDES
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TSECS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF
FGEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURG THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THIS FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR
MOSAIC BACKS THIS UP SHOWING ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP POISED TO
OVERSPREAD ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN. EXPECT TO SEE
HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE GRIDS.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR CVG
TO NEAR ILN TO CMH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NW TO THE SE. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW TOTALS WHERE HEAVIEST BAND IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR.
HAVE CONTINUED PREV HEADLINES FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. EXTREME
SE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME MORE RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING PRECIP TOWARD EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THIS LOCATION.

-- End Changed Discussion --
 
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Bout to make major shift to my call and go against what model guidance is saying. Snow clearly is north or where models showed. Well north as the axis of heavy snow is north of CMH

 

The main line is filling in steadily.  It will be fine.  ILN just UPPED totals for Columbus.  This looks to be the biggest early December storm since 1984, and perhaps one of the all-time largest December snow events.

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I'm from the SE but up here working around Lancaster, so I'll give some observations from the southeast of Columbus if that's ok with you guys. Rain and sleet last night, Off and on drizzle this morning with temp hovering around 32. Radar returns are finally starting to reach here and have some sleet finally starting to mix in and fall.

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