Let's talk winter!

[Steve]

We got close to 3 inches here...very close!!

[jbcmh81]

Reminds me of December 2000. Now all we need is a January like 2010 and a Feb like 2003.

 

The only difference is December 2000 never had a single snowfall that reached 2". 

[NEOH]

Congrats (again) down south. As Buckeye mentioned, the rich tend to get richer. Hopefully this weekend doesn't disappoint for OH. Send some of your synoptics scraps up north.

[wxdudemike]

I love over performing events!  Wow, not bad at all!  Measured 2" at OSU, but the CMH ASOS actually reported 2.7.  With 0.17" liquid equiv that yields close to a 16:1 snow ratio. 

[jbcmh81]

Port Columbus picked up 2.7" last night.  This puts the seasonal total at 13.4" so far. 

 

So let's look at seasonal snowfall records through December 10th.

 

First, the long-term snowfall average through the 10th: 3.1"

 

Average by decade, highest to lowest.

1950s: 6.8"

1880s: 4.1"

1960s: 4.1"

2010s (so far): 3.9"

1970s: 3.4"

1890s: 3.1"

1930s: 3.1"

1910s: 3.0"

1920s: 2.9"

1980s: 2.8"

1900s: 2.4"

1990s: 2.2"

2000s: 2.2"

1940s: 0.9"

 

Top 10 Years for Snowfall Through December 10th

1. 1880: 19.1"

2. 1950: 16.5"

3. 1966: 15.4"

4. 2013: 13.4"

5. 1958: 13.2"

6. 1917: 9.6"

7. 1957: 8.5"

8. 1920: 8.2"

9. 1984: 8.2"

10. 1977: 8.0"

 

This is a pretty good group to be in.  No one should complain about a 4th best start to winter ever.

 

Here are some other recent good or well-known winters and how they started through the 10th.

 

2010: 1.3"

2009: 0"

2007: 5.7"

2002: 4.9"

2000: 3.3"

1995: 3.1"

1993: 5.4"

[wxdudemike]

Thanks for those stats.  We are beating 1977! 

 

Obviously we have to be cautious about the rest of winter...Looking at some of the years around our current position reveals a toss up on total seasonal snowfall.  A few of those years had 40+ inches and others had below normal for the season.  Maybe some further research into other factors for those years would give us a better idea.

[wxdudemike]

I actually only count 11.6" so far this year

[jbcmh81]

Thanks for those stats.  We are beating 1977! 

 

Obviously we have to be cautious about the rest of winter...Looking at some of the years around our current position reveals a toss up on total seasonal snowfall.  A few of those years had 40+ inches and others had below normal for the season.  Maybe some further research into other factors for those years would give us a better idea.

 

Only 2 years didn't have normal to above normal snowfall: 1920 and 1957.  1920 is a fluke year, by any measure.  The snow that fell before the 10th was entirely from a single storm in mid-November rather than spread out in multiple events.  And there was very little snow after that.  The monthly breakdown November-April was 8.2", 3.3", 0.7", 4.2", Trace, 0.3".  There was also very little, if any, cold weather to speak of through December.  Neither of these conditions match this year.

[jbcmh81]

I actually only count 11.6" so far this year

 

4.7" fell in November, 8.7" December 1st-10th. 

[wxdudemike]

I actually only count 11.6" so far this year

 

4.7" fell in November, 8.7" December 1st-10th. 

Ah I think I accidentally pulled up CVG instead of CMH.

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[weatherzen]

roads around central ohio are worse than they've been anytime this season.  Much worse than any point during our winter storm warning.

Agreed they were far worse this morning. My commute was 5 times as long as normal. Seems like the advisory criteria should take into account temperature maybe to better anticipate the impact on roadways.

[jbcmh81]

ILN going with all snow for the 70 corridor (so far) for Friday-Sunday storm, with a mix south.  If it is all snow, this could be another 4"-8" type event.

[buckeye]

ILN going with all snow for the 70 corridor (so far) for Friday-Sunday storm, with a mix south.  If it is all snow, this could be another 4"-8" type event.

 

The 'other' JB's reasoning behind it being mostly snow in our area....

 

"The reason I am confident about the first storm being mainly snow north of the Ohio river and Mason Dixon line, with crucial fights in the coastal plain, is that snow breeds cold and snow breeds snow. The snowcover makes the air over it colder, which affects the pressure, which in turn expands the dome of cold and also supplies a boundary where cold resists warm. Storms travel further south for one and the dome of cold, if only slightly larger, is big enough so when lifted, cools the air and makes what might have been rain or sleet snow. So the trend of the model is predictable give the cold around, and the fact that there is warmth close by for the storm to focus on. Bottom line I like the ECWMF on number 1 which goes from this Sat am"    

[vespasian70]

In regards to the weekend storm, the models will have to trend colder for me not to fear the WTOD. We've been burned so many times.

[wxdudemike]

Agreed they were far worse this morning. My commute was 5 times as long as normal. Seems like the advisory criteria should take into account temperature maybe to better anticipate the impact on roadways.

 

I've always thought they should be able to override that in the event of something like this morning.  But I guess that gets sketchy when there is room for subjective criteria...But still, this morning needed some sort of headline to warn the public.  I'm just not sure what kind of hard "criteria" to put on that other than "overnight snowfall > 1 inch coupled with temperatures < 25F"  which isn't exactly ultra specific....

 

The 'other' JB's reasoning behind it being mostly snow in our area....

 

"The reason I am confident about the first storm being mainly snow north of the Ohio river and Mason Dixon line, with crucial fights in the coastal plain, is that snow breeds cold and snow breeds snow. The snowcover makes the air over it colder, which affects the pressure, which in turn expands the dome of cold and also supplies a boundary where cold resists warm. Storms travel further south for one and the dome of cold, if only slightly larger, is big enough so when lifted, cools the air and makes what might have been rain or sleet snow. So the trend of the model is predictable give the cold around, and the fact that there is warmth close by for the storm to focus on. Bottom line I like the ECWMF on number 1 which goes from this Sat am"    

 

Not that I disagree with him, but I've had warm air blast right over my beautiful snowpack to allow for an advancing low to cross the region too many times to buy right into that.

 

I do think having snow on the ground will help us and it clearly won't be melting away before Saturday.  Heck, at this point it appears likely we will even add at least an inch or two to start the storm regardless.  The thing is, especially for us central/central eastern Ohioans, even a relatively weak low into northeast KY / extreme SE Ohio can just nudge us up to 33 (and maybe even still mostly snow).  BUT at that temp we will be significantly cutting back on any accumulation.  It's not a massive warm surge that I'm worried about, but the typical subtle bump above freezing that often comes our way.  That being said, I do thin a mix to sleet or rain is possible especially if the low is a bit stronger.

[buckeye]

I've always thought they should be able to override that in the event of something like this morning.  But I guess that gets sketchy when there is room for subjective criteria...But still, this morning needed some sort of headline to warn the public.  I'm just not sure what kind of hard "criteria" to put on that other than "overnight snowfall > 1 inch coupled with temperatures < 25F"  which isn't exactly ultra specific....

 

 

Not that I disagree with him, but I've had warm air blast right over my beautiful snowpack to allow for an advancing low to cross the region too many times to buy right into that.

 

I do think having snow on the ground will help us and it clearly won't be melting away before Saturday.  Heck, at this point it appears likely we will even add at least an inch or two to start the storm regardless.  The thing is, especially for us central/central eastern Ohioans, even a relatively weak low into northeast KY / extreme SE Ohio can just nudge us up to 33 (and maybe even still mostly snow).  BUT at that temp we will be significantly cutting back on any accumulation.  It's not a massive warm surge that I'm worried about, but the typical subtle bump above freezing that often comes our way.  That being said, I do thin a mix to sleet or rain is possible especially if the low is a bit stronger.

 

Good points, and I agree that simply having a very cold airmass in place is not a guarantee against a changeover to rain.  I recall a few times when we were in the single digits within 24 hours of plain rain.   That being said, some of our heftiest snowfalls are from WAA events.  Many times, by the time enough warm air gets into place, the bulk of the precip is done and we end up with a decent snow followed by drizzle.    The models are hinting at that type of scenario.    We'll see.

[wxdudemike]

I've always thought they should be able to override that in the event of something like this morning.  But I guess that gets sketchy when there is room for subjective criteria...But still, this morning needed some sort of headline to warn the public.  I'm just not sure what kind of hard "criteria" to put on that other than "overnight snowfall > 1 inch coupled with temperatures < 25F"  which isn't exactly ultra specific....

 

 

Not that I disagree with him, but I've had warm air blast right over my beautiful snowpack to allow for an advancing low to cross the region too many times to buy right into that.

 

I do think having snow on the ground will help us and it clearly won't be melting away before Saturday.  Heck, at this point it appears likely we will even add at least an inch or two to start the storm regardless.  The thing is, especially for us central/central eastern Ohioans, even a relatively weak low into northeast KY / extreme SE Ohio can just nudge us up to 33 (and maybe even still mostly snow).  BUT at that temp we will be significantly cutting back on any accumulation.  It's not a massive warm surge that I'm worried about, but the typical subtle bump above freezing that often comes our way.  That being said, I do thin a mix to sleet or rain is possible especially if the low is a bit stronger.

 

Good points, and I agree that simply having a very cold airmass in place is not a guarantee against a changeover to rain.  I recall a few times when we were in the single digits within 24 hours of plain rain.   That being said, some of our heftiest snowfalls are from WAA events.  Many times, by the time enough warm air gets into place, the bulk of the precip is done and we end up with a decent snow followed by drizzle.    The models are hinting at that type of scenario.    We'll see.

I noticed that too about the drizzle. So maybe we can pick up a nice 2-4 but only melt away a tiny bit in the few hours we bump above freezing.

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[vespasian70]

ILN still going with mainly a snow event for I-70 this weekend. Both the GFS and Nam are primarily snow for us.

[buckeye]

ILN still going with mainly a snow event for I-70 this weekend. Both the GFS and Nam are primarily snow for us.

 

Euro much colder....looks like all snow anywhere north of the river....only issue now is strength of this 'system'.

 

edit:  6z gfs is also further southeast and colder.   The trade-off for colder is a weaker slug of moisture.

[vespasian70]

Looking good!

[wxdudemike]

Looking good!

I agree only if we can stay below freezing. Qpf doesn't look high so looks mainly like 2-4 right now. Although the 12z euro takes us just above 32.

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[Steve]

GFS and NAM spitting out around 4 inches for us..i will take that!!

[Whitelakeroy]

It's kind of funny but I have friends from CA in process of moving to Batesville.  Everyone in the town said it rarely snows.  They a lot more snow then I do here in SE MI.  LOL

[jbcmh81]

Will Columbus hit 20" or more for the season before December is out?  It's certainly possible. 

 

Of the top 10 seasonal snowfall years by December 10th, here is how they ended up through December 31st:

 

1880: 30.9"

1950: 25.7"

1966: 16.8"

1917: 15.7"

1958: 13.7"

2013*: 13.4"

1920: 11.5"

1977: 9.7"

1957: 8.5"

1984: 8.2"

 

*Through December 11th.  With even 4" through the rest of the month, that would put us at 3rd snowiest through December ever, and with the cold generally looking to stick around through Christmas, there's bound to be another snowfall between Saturday's event and the rest of the month.  20", btw, would be about 71% of an entire season's average snowfall.  While very rare, this year has that potential.

[Steve]

I really hope we get more then our local mets are calling for..most saying 1 maybe 2 inches..accuweather close to 3-6 and TWC 3-5..i will make a call after it falls!! LOL..Larry Cosgrove saying 2-4!

[jbcmh81]

I really hope we get more then our local mets are calling for..most saying 1 maybe 2 inches..accuweather close to 3-6 and TWC 3-5..i will make a call after it falls!! LOL..Larry Cosgrove saying 2-4!

 

Solutions are pretty much in agreement of a weaker wave, which means colder temps... but also potentially lower amounts of precip.  If I had to guess right now, I'd say 3-5" along and near 70. 

[Steve]

Solutions are pretty much in agreement of a weaker wave, which means colder temps... but also potentially lower amounts of precip.  If I had to guess right now, I'd say 3-5" along and near 70. 

Would be ok with that..also looks to get rteal cold before Christmas!!

[jbcmh81]

Would be ok with that..also looks to get rteal cold before Christmas!!

 

The -EPO is definitely our friend this winter, much like the -AO was during 2009-2010.  It doesn't look to go positive through the month, at least at this point.  The snow and cold so far bode well historically, and that's what I'm more comfortable with.

[jbcmh81]

WWA for much of ILN's forecast area for 4"-6" of snow from tomorrow evening through Saturday.

[vespasian70]

The Nam and GFS clown maps are pretty good agreement about a general 4" - 5' snow across the I-70 corridor.