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Let's talk winter!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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JayPSU

JayPSU

Posted
Posted

Is this really needed? As said in the other thread it is too early to be declaring where the storm will go. How many times have we been down this path with models showing one thing BEYOND day 5 and then something totally different by the time the system arrives no matter how many models showed it? So far it has been a share the wealth kind of winter which is great as far as i am concerned. Only exception i suppose would be just to the nw of Chicago and or between Chicago and MSP. No need to get worked up about a system that is so far out. :)

Harry, I'll be the first person to say that anyone from WI to NJ could be in play. What I found funny that was when Buckeye showed the GGEM last night which showed a suppressed track, it was discounted. Then the Euro...must be too far south. Sure, it could be, but it's no less likely than a western lakes bomb and that's my point.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Harry, I'll be the first person to say that anyone from WI to NJ could be in play. What I found funny that was when Buckeye showed the GGEM last night which showed a suppressed track, it was discounted. Then the Euro...must be too far south. Sure, it could be, but it's no less likely than a western lakes bomb and that's my point.

 

I made the comment about the GGEM, and I was just kidding around with buckeye. At this range, every solution needs to be laughed at, to an extent.

 

Sorry...next time I'll thrown one of these ;)  in there. Or maybe a  :P  

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Harry, I'll be the first person to say that anyone from WI to NJ could be in play. What I found funny that was when Buckeye showed the GGEM last night which showed a suppressed track, it was discounted. Then the Euro...must be too far south. Sure, it could be, but it's no less likely than a western lakes bomb and that's my point.

 

 

Thats fine.. And i don't disagree. Would help though to see some sort of 50/50 or a -NAO.. Ofcourse if the system itself is weak then yeah neither would be really needed. So yeah the door is open. We should all know how erratic the models can be in the day 5-10 time frame. :yikes:

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

Posted
Posted

Watching channel 4 weather..calling for an inch to inch and a half of snow early tomorrow morning? Where did this come from? Sorry guys..going out on a limb 8 hours out..LOL Hard enough dealing with the now forecast.. :santa: 

I would say an inch southwest of Columbus.  For us in the metro, more like a dusting to half an inch.

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

New SWS from ILN saying 1-1.5" imby.

 

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-161200-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET...
MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...
LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...CINCINNATI...
MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO...WEST UNION...PIKETON...
PORTSMOUTH
1025 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2013

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLIPPER TYPE
WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LASTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TO BETWEEN
1 AND 1.5 INCHES THE FROM RICHMOND...INDIANA THROUGH THE NORTHERN
SUBURBS OF CINCINNATI...THE SOUTHERN DAYTON METRO AREA...WILMINGTON
AND WAVERLY AREAS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY STICK
TO MOST SURFACES...INCLUDING UNTREATED ROADWAYS. THE GREATEST
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8
AM...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOSE TRAVELING MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD PLAN ON ALLOWING EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR INTENDED
DESTINATION.

 

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

Posted
Posted

Well well...The GFS drops 1-2" of snow on us Monday evening!  With NAM support this close to the event, I am skeptical.  Will wait for the 12z guidance before adjusting my current dusting projection.  (For monday night, not Monday morning)  How about that?  Technically we have two snow threats on the same day!  Small, but still fun!

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

Now I normally don't rant but most in this section know who Chris Bradley is. Here is what he posted on Facebook for his followers regarding the 0z EURO. This absolutely pissed me off and I called him out. Here is his post and it is a lie and hype to create worry before Christmas.

Chris Bradley

2 hours ago

It's a week away.. but the EURO model is picking up on a big storm that right now is tracking into the Ohio Valley. The EURO has the low over Kentucky and West Virginia and is printing out well over a foot of snow next Sunday into Monday. We are certainly not forecasting that at the moment... but this is what the model is showing right now. Gonna need to keep an eye on this one for sure!

Now if you look at the soundings it clearly shows temps well above freezing. He told a bold faced lie knowing most of his followers can't read a model.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Now I normally don't rant but most in this section know who Chris Bradley is. Here is what he posted on Facebook for his followers regarding the 0z EURO. This absolutely pissed me off and I called him out. Here is his post and it is a lie and hype to create worry before Christmas.

Chris Bradley

2 hours ago

It's a week away.. but the EURO model is picking up on a big storm that right now is tracking into the Ohio Valley. The EURO has the low over Kentucky and West Virginia and is printing out well over a foot of snow next Sunday into Monday. We are certainly not forecasting that at the moment... but this is what the model is showing right now. Gonna need to keep an eye on this one for sure!

Now if you look at the soundings it clearly shows temps well above freezing. He told a bold faced lie knowing most of his followers can't read a model.

 

 

He is using last nights 00z euro..

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Well he posted it at 1am. So let's say he is. He is still lying and playing it off as the most recent version. He could've used the 12z run. But he waited until 1am to post last night's run? He still is hyping something that's not there. It's a joke.

 

I was going to say, it was the Sunday 12z run that showed that.  Still, I don't think he was 'lying'.   If he wanted to hype up something, why get specific about a model run that 95% of his followers have never heard of?   But who knows.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Well well...The GFS drops 1-2" of snow on us Monday evening!  With NAM support this close to the event, I am skeptical.  Will wait for the 12z guidance before adjusting my current dusting projection.  (For monday night, not Monday morning)  How about that?  Technically we have two snow threats on the same day!  Small, but still fun!

 

Because of our fast start out of the box, I'm turning into a snowfall-totals-whore...lol... I want to hit at least 20" by end of December.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Because of our fast start out of the box, I'm turning into a snowfall-totals-whore...lol... I want to hit at least 20" by end of December.

 

I don't blame you. If you'd told me before winter that by Dec. 15th Columbus would have over 15" and more than 6" more than me, I'd ask you for some of what ever it is that you were smoking.

 

If you can get the trajectory of the incoming clippers just right, you could be close before the late week meltdown.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

I don't blame you. If you'd told me before winter that by Dec. 15th Columbus would have over 15" and more than 6" more than me, I'd ask you for some of what ever it is that you were smoking.

 

If you can get the trajectory of the incoming clippers just right, you could be close before the late week meltdown.

 

yea it seems like we've had a snowcover since before thanksgiving except for 3 or 4 warmup days here and there....unheard of this early around here.   We should be able to add a couple more inches before the rain hammer comes down.  After xmas who knows.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

I was going to say, it was the Sunday 12z run that showed that. Still, I don't think he was 'lying'. If he wanted to hype up something, why get specific about a model run that 95% of his followers have never heard of? But who knows.

That's the point, Mike, most of his followers can't read a forecast model so they just read what he says and go off of it. At any rate GAS now showing temps in the 60's for the 22nd.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

any chance we can pick up about 4.5" between over performance and high ratios on this clipper?   lol.....just want to hit my 20" before the pattern turns to sh*t

 

The bad pattern doesn't look to last long, and it shouldn't.  Not with the continued -EPO and what looks like a positive PNA coming up.  Combined, we could get some serious cold coming in a few weeks.  How that translates to storm action, I don't know, but winter is far from over.  We were bound to see a break.  Still 5 days to winter and we've had more than 50% of our seasonal snowfall total.  We're doing fine.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

The bad pattern doesn't look to last long, and it shouldn't.  Not with the continued -EPO and what looks like a positive PNA coming up.  Combined, we could get some serious cold coming in a few weeks.  How that translates to storm action, I don't know, but winter is far from over.  We were bound to see a break.  Still 5 days to winter and we've had more than 50% of our seasonal snowfall total.  We're doing fine.

 

Yes we are....nearing 16"....clippers on the way... and now just waiting for the late weekend event to come back full circle :santa:

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Yes we are....nearing 16"....clippers on the way... and now just waiting for the late weekend event to come back full circle :santa:

 

We're at 16.4" through last night.  0.9" fell at KCMH.  I'm not confident this clipper hits us with much.  1-2" may be stretching it, but at the max of 2", that would put us at just over 18" so far, which would be about 63% of the seasonal average... all before winter begins.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

I'm kind of at a loss to see where the snow is going to come from tonight.  Everything looks to slide too far north for any real accumulation.  What am I missing?

I was thinking the same thing, although it is starting to build in a little better from the nw.   Was just out walking the dogs with the wife and it was about half and half, sleet/snow.    As far as tomorrow, it sounds like they are talking up a squally afternoon potentially. 

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