buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Have to admit..the radar does look decent to our west and south...and I still don't think our local mets have a grasp on how cold it may get..their coming around a bit,but not like models are showing!! I agree on both points. Radar looks nice. I like the look of that gulf moisture juicing up things in southern IL and heading this way. Thinking 3-5 looks very do-able. As far as local mets and the coming cold, you are right. I watched one of the channels tonight and he said, (about the cold next week), "and bundle up folks, we could hit zero by next Tuesday night". Not to sound like a weenie alarmist, but it looks pretty likely that we could hit, conservatively, -10. It's been years since we've seen that. There are people living in houses that might be prone to frozen pipes or have elderly neighbors that could suffer greatly if the heat went out, etc. I don't think it's too early for these local tv mets to start warning people of the potential....without hyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agree on both points. Radar looks nice. I like the look of that gulf moisture juicing up things in southern IL and heading this way. Thinking 3-5 looks very do-able. As far as local mets and the coming cold, you are right. I watched one of the channels tonight and he said, (about the cold next week), "and bundle up folks, we could hit zero by next Tuesday night". Not to sound like a weenie alarmist, but it looks pretty likely that we could hit, conservatively, -10. It's been years since we've seen that. There are people living in houses that might be prone to frozen pipes or have elderly neighbors that could suffer greatly if the heat went out, etc. I don't think it's too early for these local tv mets to start warning people of the potential....without hyping. I agree...what do you think about some of these modeld showing -15 to -25 and colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agree on both points. Radar looks nice. I like the look of that gulf moisture juicing up things in southern IL and heading this way. Thinking 3-5 looks very do-able. As far as local mets and the coming cold, you are right. I watched one of the channels tonight and he said, (about the cold next week), "and bundle up folks, we could hit zero by next Tuesday night". Not to sound like a weenie alarmist, but it looks pretty likely that we could hit, conservatively, -10. It's been years since we've seen that. There are people living in houses that might be prone to frozen pipes or have elderly neighbors that could suffer greatly if the heat went out, etc. I don't think it's too early for these local tv mets to start warning people of the potential....without hyping. -10 and -11 were both hit in mid-January 2009, but those were the only double-digits below zero between now and January 1994. 1994 to 2009 was the longest stretch between them as far as I can see. Before that, it was the period between December 1951 and January 1961. But yeah, definite downplaying of the severity of the cold coming up. Pretty widespread support for greater than -10 and potentially a very rare below zero high for either the 7th or 8th (or both). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agree...what do you think about some of these modeld showing -15 to -25 and colder? I think -12 to -15 is probably the extent, especially around Columbus....but you could easily have isolated, localized readings -20 or lower in rural areas. To reach the lowest we probably need a snow cover, clear skies at night, and calm winds. Sounds like calm winds and clear skies might be the issue. Of course the price we pay for winds is the brutal windchills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well well the 0z GFS clobbers us! Not sure how excited to get until I see the euro lol Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well well the 0z GFS clobbers us! Not sure how excited to get until I see the euro lol Sent from my XT1060 meanwhile the nam shows no hint of a storm at 84 hrs...just a crushing advance of the arctic front with plenty of squalls and snowshowers along it. My money would be on a shift east and weaker on tonights runs....but that's just a complete guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Potential to be a major event for Ohio and major cold snap to boot. Hasn't been a big snowstorm through the state really since February 2010. wow....that's the most optimistic post you've ever made concerning a snow threat for ohio. It's gotta happen now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well well the 0z GFS clobbers us! Not sure how excited to get until I see the euro lol Sent from my XT1060 If the euro operational starts trending south like the ensembles ... it has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc294 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I agree with buckeye. I think it's going to get cold but the precip is going to get shifted east. The low to the south is going to put up more of a fight than they think. Means I won't get much snow but north along the lakes will get dumped on. It'll still push on, the trough will dip and it'll get cold. My local forecast on the news tonight said 3-5" for me. They're seldom ever correct and they like to make a bigger story out of it to make it seem more interesting. LOL thats what I think at least. I guess I'll find out in 5 1/2 hours. I'll be up at 04:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z GGEM is very December'04 esque. Low tracks from Lexington to central NY state. For CMH it would probably be some sort of slop or rain changing to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Updated ILN map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 We have around 2 inches already!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Moderate snow here in Dayton. Local Mets now agree with what you guys called for last night - 3-5 inches now. Roads were not good coming into work, but I got out there early so that I could have the roads to myself. Fun driving for a snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ILN has issued WSW for the counties to our south. Already over 2'' here and closing on 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Over achiever for sure! Let's hope this is a sign for the weekend! Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Over achiever for sure! Let's hope this is a sign for the weekend! Sent from my XT1060 Yep. From the reports and what I'm seeing, 3"-5" has already fallen over most of the ILN area, including Columbus. This could be 6"+ all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Over achiever for sure! Let's hope this is a sign for the weekend! Sent from my XT1060 Yep. From the reports and what I'm seeing, 3"-5" has already fallen over most of the ILN area, including Columbus. This could be 6"+ all said and done. That's a bust high for me but I'm always ok with that Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I thought this was looking about done in another hour or 2, but there is an expanding area of returns in Indiana. Have to wonder if that swings through later on and keeps things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 what an awesome storm, should finish up close to 5 unless there's more surprises.... the wind component is something we haven't seen with any of our recent snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 what an awesome storm, should finish up close to 5 unless there's more surprises.... the wind component is something we haven't seen with any of our recent snowfalls. The airport reported 3.1" through 1pm. It'll probably end up one of the low spots in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meh, at this point, it's looking like a track for the 5th-6th storm running right through Columbus or just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meh, at this point, it's looking like a track for the 5th-6th storm running right through Columbus or just east. yea, I gave up and posted in the storm thread..... I'm holding out for the models underplaying the strength of the incoming front.... I will say this, even if the euro were to pan out exactly as its shown, it would still be a major event here in CMH. The temp drops over 20 degrees in like 6 hours and there would most likely be a sudden changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 btw, finally put the snowblower to good use....actually a handed the reigns over to my son for his first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yea, I gave up and posted in the storm thread..... I'm holding out for the models underplaying the strength of the incoming front.... I will say this, even if the euro were to pan out exactly as its shown, it would still be a major event here in CMH. The temp drops over 20 degrees in like 6 hours and there would most likely be a sudden changeover. I know, it can still happen... and climo is on our side with combo storms/major arctic outbreaks, but right now I don't know what to think. I did see ILN is calling for an all snow event for Columbus in the updated zones along with a low of -10 to -15 Monday night. Bust too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know, it can still happen... and climo is on our side with combo storms/major arctic outbreaks, but right now I don't know what to think. I did see ILN is calling for an all snow event for Columbus in the updated zones along with a low of -10 to -15 Monday night. Bust too high? that's unusual, they usually try to find reasons it won't snow. If does go over top of us, I hope it's a monster, those are the ones that end up with really nice changeover accums. If it's just a 1005 ish storm, we'll end up with backlash sleet and snowshowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ILN using I-71 as changeover point. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE GONE WITH 100 POPS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS. GFS STILL OFFERS THE COLDER SOLUTION...SUGGESTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AND ALL SNOW. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING COLDER...BUT IS STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO AND BROUGHT A CHANGE TO RAIN UP TO I-71 SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CUT INTO SNOWFALL THERE. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD LEAD TO HEADLINES FOR WINTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING ZERO. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY IN THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.MONDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN MANY YEARS. UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND WITH SNOW COVER CONTRIBUTING ITS INFLUENCE...LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY UP TO 5 BELOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO...WELL INTO WIND CHILL HEADLINE TERRITORY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. UNDER THE FRIGID AIRMASS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO READINGS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ON MONDAY NIGHT.LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I swear if I'm gonna be looking at a radar picture like this all day Sunday....I'm getting drunk. Whose in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I swear if I'm gonna be looking at a radar picture like this all day Sunday....I'm getting drunk. Whose in?LMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We Southwest Ohioans have seen how this goes before. I did read on the other thread...the Euro ensembles were further Southeast than the operational. Also you can't just draw a straight line from Arkansas to Central Lake Ontario and say that is the track...it could well start out and bend more Eastward before turning more North with its track...especially if the phase is a bit later...if it happens. But as I said...we have seen this picture many times over the years. All being said...I rather be in Muncie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I swear if I'm gonna be looking at a radar picture like this all day Sunday....I'm getting drunk. Whose in? I will need to get drunk if we get the WTOD from this. The snow today puts us at about 70% of normal snowfall for an entire season. I would like to see 100% after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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