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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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A little xmas miracle.  WTH did this coating of snow come from?    I'd say about 3/4", just enough to whiten everything.   

 

On that note,  Merry Christmas everyone....may the 240 hour 00z GFS verify, (only 30 runs until we can lock it in!)

 

 

Merry Christmas to you and yours Buck! This snow would have been perfect for tomorrow morning.

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A little xmas miracle.  WTH did this coating of snow come from?    I'd say about 3/4", just enough to whiten everything.   

 

On that note,  Merry Christmas everyone....may the 240 hour 00z GFS verify, (only 30 runs until we can lock it in!)

 

 

 

 

Go ahead and start a thread for it. lol

 

Merry Christmas to you and all of the Ohio posters.

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I agree, Steve!

Where is everybody?! Sounds like the snow drums are beating and the geese are honking for a Wed night-Thurs. snow scenario - but I don't know any more than that. Tis the holiday season though. Everybody must be hittin the egg nogg :-)

I'll check back soon....

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I agree, Steve!

Where is everybody?! Sounds like the snow drums are beating and the geese are honking for a Wed night-Thurs. snow scenario - but I don't know any more than that. Tis the holiday season though. Everybody must be hittin the egg nogg :-)

I'll check back soon....

Most models are taking it north..hoping that changes..still a few days out!!

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I agree, Steve!

Where is everybody?! Sounds like the snow drums are beating and the geese are honking for a Wed night-Thurs. snow scenario - but I don't know any more than that. Tis the holiday season though. Everybody must be hittin the egg nogg :-)

I'll check back soon....

 

I'm willing to wait out a couple of runs before I totally stick a fork in this, but this has classic dryslot and WTOD issues written all over it for the eastern OV crowd.    We need a miraculous shift south, far enough to take the primary no further north than the river....when has that trend EVER occurred in modeling?   

 

If you want to grasp straws in favor of a southern shift, the JMA at 96 hrs has the low about 1000miles or so south of the other guidance, which is curious since the jma inside of 120 has actually done pretty well with storms this year.   The other straw is the ukmet which takes the low safely southeast of us.    But those are some pretty scrappy straws.    

 

If I had to make a call for Wednesday night and Thursday I'd probably go with a 1-3" long duration, wet, messy, event.   Showery in nature and possibly even mixing with rain at times.  

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What's the date on that puppy?

 

96 hour 00zeuro.     We need this to keep the trend of the globals to dig this a bit further.  For us in the eastern portion of the subforum it's all about the southern low and where, how, it phases.  We were never in the game on that streak of snow coming thru before that.  

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96 hour 00zeuro.     We need this to keep the trend of the globals to dig this a bit further.  For us in the eastern portion of the subforum it's all about the southern low and where, how, it phases.  We were never in the game on that streak of snow coming thru before that.  

Got ya. What did the Canadian do at 00z?

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Got ya. What did the Canadian do at 00z?

 

Canadian is kind of in the gfs/nam camp in that it has a much weaker low in TX that travels up to about central IN then east.    The euro, ukmet, and nogaps all have a stronger low in the southern plains that heads closer to the ohio river.    I'm hoping we see a trend towards more emphasis on the southern system today.

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Canadian is kind of in the gfs/nam camp in that it has a much weaker low in TX that travels up to about central IN then east.    The euro, ukmet, and nogaps all have a stronger low in the southern plains that heads closer to the ohio river.    I'm hoping we see a trend towards more emphasis on the southern system today.

Fingers crossed Buck. thx! In the meantime, some "mood" flakes coming down now.

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I've followed weather for decades...but never have I seen the Polar Vortex drop that far south. And in combination with a super bomb going from DC to Toronto...getting down to 950 MB's. Just insane...but its the third run in a row the Euro has dropped the vortex into the lakes. Today's noon run is all the way to the Indiana/Michigan border. The maps are just insane. I am tempted to give up a year of my life for that Euro map to verify...with the storm a bit further west of course :santa:

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I've followed weather for decades...but never have I seen the Polar Vortex drop that far south. And in combination with a super bomb going from DC to Toronto...getting down to 950 MB's. Just insane...but its the third run in a row the Euro has dropped the vortex into the lakes. Today's noon run is all the way to the Indiana/Michigan border. The maps are just insane. I am tempted to give up a year of my life for that Euro map to verify...with the storm a bit further west of course :santa:

 

Shades of February 1899?  Huge East Coast snowstorm that produced the 2nd worst arctic outbreak ever for Ohio after 1994 (still has the state record).   The entire week of February 8-14, 1899 had an average temperature of -3 degrees and lows of -7, -17, -20, -8, -6, -13 and -5.  The storm didn't really hit Ohio too hard.  It more featured a long-duration light snow even over the preceding days that dropped about 6".

 

January 1994 is still colder, though, and featured a classic OV snowstorm.  The average temp the week of January 15-21, 1994 was -8.  The snowstorm dropped a general 6-10" across 3/4ths of the state, with over 20" further south along the Ohio River.  And it was heavy at times.  There were reports of 5" per hour around Chillicothe during that one.

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So I haven't been following any of the clipper stuff, mostly because they're weak and forecast to miss us anyway.  But looking at current radar, is all that in Illinois, albeit light, supposed to miss us as well?  Trajectory would certainly bring it into Central Ohio and would be good for some snow showers if it held together.

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So I haven't been following any of the clipper stuff, mostly because they're weak and forecast to miss us anyway.  But looking at current radar, is all that in Illinois, albeit light, supposed to miss us as well?  Trajectory would certainly bring it into Central Ohio and would be good for some snow showers if it held together.

They are calling for it to go just north of us...we shall see...I was wondering the same thing!!

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They are calling for it to go just north of us...we shall see...I was wondering the same thing!!

 

ILN updated to add a slight chance of snow through the morning.  It's definitely further south than what models and forecasts had it.  Hopefully this is a good omen for a surprising shift further south with wave #2.  Even if not, recent runs would be a good 3-4" for most of us.

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