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Steve

Let's talk winter!

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Got a nice surprise 2" of snow here in Westerville last night. We're already over performing! Looks like another 3" coming tonight...for November that's fantastic. I'm actually pretty excited even though I hadn't finished all my raking yet!

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A Currier and Ives type drive to work this morning with the snow on the trees. Very pretty but with just wet roads. Short of a shut everything down snowstorm this is my favorite type of snow event.

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Looking at the radar..where is our snow going to come from..because it looks south and east of here moving NE..is it suppose to fill in further south and west?

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This just out from ILN

 

 

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO GLANCE
QUICKLY AT THE NEW 12Z NAM RUN. CONCERN WITH THIS NEW RUN IS THAT
IT SEEMS TO BE GENERATING LESS QPF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IF THIS BECOMES SUPPORTED BY
OTHER MODEL RUNS AS THEY COME IN (GFS...CMC AND ECMWF)...THEN
ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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This just out from ILN

 

 

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO GLANCE

QUICKLY AT THE NEW 12Z NAM RUN. CONCERN WITH THIS NEW RUN IS THAT

IT SEEMS TO BE GENERATING LESS QPF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS

EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IF THIS BECOMES SUPPORTED BY

OTHER MODEL RUNS AS THEY COME IN (GFS...CMC AND ECMWF)...THEN

ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

Exactly..if you look at the radar..still wondering where we get our 4-6 inches from..it would have to turn north a bit quite quickly..but good thing is a bust in Nov. is better then one in Dec or Jan!

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Ironically, there is a pretty good band developing from southwest of Cincinnati right into Columbus, with a dryer slot between 71 and the main area of precip to the southeast.  The dryslot is right over the winter storm warning area.  The band over 71 looks pretty stable, as in it doesn't look like it will be moving much over the next few hours.  It makes me wonder if, when all this fills in like it is supposed to, if Columbus may end up being in the heavier amounts.  The 1.5"-2" the area had last night could make this into a 4-5" storm.  For November, that's near the top of the pack.

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WSW has been cancelled..seen that one coming..we now have a WWA..for 2-4..snowning nicely out right now! :snowing:

Sticking to the roads now that the sun has gone down. Hopefully the back end of the precipitation shield doesn't swing through anytime soon!

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Columbus was over 3" for the month at 5pm today, and will probably tack on another few inches all said and done. 

 

The month will also end up with at least a few days with highs at or below freezing. 

 

There have been 17 years in which 3" or more snow fell during November combined with 2 or more highs below freezing. 

 

Of those 17:

-11 years featured winters that had normal to above normal snowfall combined with below normal temperatures. 

-2 winters were both warm with below normal snowfall.

-2 winters had normal temperatures with below normal snowfall.

-1 winter had normal snowfall with above normal temperatures.

-1 winter had below normal temperatures but below normal snowfall.

 

Only 3 of the winters were really bad as far as the lack of winter weather goes, so November weather, so far, has given us a good chance at a decent winter coming up.

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Columbus was over 3" for the month at 5pm today, and will probably tack on another few inches all said and done. 

 

The month will also end up with at least a few days with highs at or below freezing. 

 

There have been 17 years in which 3" or more snow fell during November combined with 2 or more highs below freezing. 

 

Of those 17:

-11 years featured winters that had normal to above normal snowfall combined with below normal temperatures. 

-2 winters were both warm with below normal snowfall.

-2 winters had normal temperatures with below normal snowfall.

-1 winter had normal snowfall with above normal temperatures.

-1 winter had below normal temperatures but below normal snowfall.

 

Only 3 of the winters were really bad as far as the lack of winter weather goes, so November weather, so far, has given us a good chance at a decent winter coming up.

Good stuff as usual jb! Thx & Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. White Turkey Day. Its been a while since we had one of those. Now lets get a white Christmas!

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We got about 2 inches here..very wintery outside..snow showers all morning so far..Great Nov. so far!! Yeah 3 inches at least here this Nov. can't remember the last time we had a white Thanksgiving! :snowwindow: HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE!!

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Hope everyone had a good thanksgiving and is ready for some more fun! Nothing huge yet it looks like but some light snow or ice events appear quite possible in thr coming week or two before we transition to Warmer.

Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk

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Damn, haven't been paying a lot of attention but it looks like models are converging on a significant thump for central and southern OH Friday into Saturday. Then the potential for a front-loaded ice(storm?)ending as rain or drizzle before the arctic plunge. Crazy 5 days of weather on the way. Buckle up.

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Damn, haven't been paying a lot of attention but it looks like models are converging on a significant thump for central and southern OH Friday into Saturday. Then the potential for a front-loaded ice(storm?)ending as rain or drizzle before the arctic plunge. Crazy 5 days of weather on the way. Buckle up.

 

Yeah, I just noticed the GFS is dropping about a foot of snow or more now, most for the 1st event.  I hate these mix events, though.  They could, and so often do, not live up to expectations.

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I guess I'll throw the, 'what could go wrong for CMH', on the table.

First event gets pushed further southeast and we get whiffed to the south with nothing more than rain ending as snowshowers. Second event starts out as an hour of sleet changing to rain and ending as flurries as the low drives up thru central OH. Followed by brutal cold and dry until the next rainstorm.

hmmm, hopefully that squashes the jinx.

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I guess I'll throw the, 'what could go wrong for CMH', on the table.

First event gets pushed further southeast and we get whiffed to the south with nothing more than rain ending as snowshowers. Second event starts out as an hour of sleet changing to rain and ending as flurries as the low drives up thru central OH. Followed by brutal cold and dry until the next rainstorm.

hmmm, hopefully that squashes the jinx.

Yep, that sounds about right Buck. I have my fingers crossed, but I have a feeling that the strength of cold air coming down is now just starting to be picked up on the models and the first event will be just some light snow showers at the end. However, that same strong cold air coming down will be hard to push out so I can see more ice than rain with the second one. Please no ice!!!!!!!!

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Yep, that sounds about right Buck. I have my fingers crossed, but I have a feeling that the strength of cold air coming down is now just starting to be picked up on the models and the first event will be just some light snow showers at the end. However, that same strong cold air coming down will be hard to push out so I can see more ice than rain with the second one. Please no ice!!!!!!!!

 

I guess I'll throw the, 'what could go wrong for CMH', on the table.

First event gets pushed further southeast and we get whiffed to the south with nothing more than rain ending as snowshowers. Second event starts out as an hour of sleet changing to rain and ending as flurries as the low drives up thru central OH. Followed by brutal cold and dry until the next rainstorm.

hmmm, hopefully that squashes the jinx.

Can we just once be on the receiving end of some great winter weather this Friday through the weekend!! :snowing:

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I think the ice set up is going to end up well east and south (50-60 miles) of the I-71 line.....at least I hope so. Someone is going to get crushed with ice. It seems to me that a more likely scenario is that cold air settles too far south and east which keeps us on the drier side of things... gotta love the uncertainty of winter weather in these parts.

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Are we ready to buy into this yet? :mapsnow:

I would love to... BUT!! Even with less then 2 days to go..It's Ohio.. and so when it falls then I will buy in..lol 

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