Let's talk winter!

[JayPSU]

No need to be snarky, just pointing out a small warm layer that wouldn't be obvious if you're not looking at the entire column.

Just pointing out your vast history of negativity to our area and our posters.

[Hoosier]

I appreciate the info.... I welcome all of the potential 'what could go wrong scenarios'....for two reasons, first it neutralizes disappointment, and second, inevitably it's the one scenario you never consider that usually kills you.   

 

For the good news, surface temps look good and precip amounts look good so prolonged mixing is probably the only way it could fail.  Warm layer doesn't look that bad so maybe it will be overcome and you'll get drilled.

[buckeye]

ILN has one of their most comprehensive AFD I've ever read.   The cliff notes are that Columbus is gonna get hammered with wintry precip.....but as to what that means, how much of each type etc....they're using a blend of models mixed with guessing.    (the ncep models are 'sleety', the foreign models are snowy)  I might have to become an ex-patriot for the next 36 hours.

Oh well, interesting 24 hours ahead.

[HighTechEE]

NAM is loving Dayton, 11.1in SN plus only 3 tenths sleet:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kday.dat

[snowlover2]

NAM is loving Dayton, 11.1in SN plus only 3 tenths sleet:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kday.dat

That looks like the 12z run. 18z run should show higher snow amounts.

[Chinook]

for you Ohio Valley folks- here is some eye candy. Not sure if this 4km NAM plot includes sleet as snow (that could be problematic)

 

 

 

[JayPSU]

I appreciate the info.... I welcome all of the potential 'what could go wrong scenarios'....for two reasons, first it neutralizes disappointment, and second, inevitably it's the one scenario you never consider that usually kills you.

You know what, I do too. The stuff that happened years ago should be water under the bridge. My apologies. On to the actual interesting stuff like a ton of wintry precip!

[jbcmh81]

Here are some maps for conditions to the west.  Looks like, so far, less mixing and more snow once you get down towards freezing.

 

At 3PM EST

http://goo.gl/maps/1MBQz

 

And at 4PM EST

http://goo.gl/maps/y95yF

 

I only included areas that were actually reporting precipitation.

[Steve]

Chria Bradely just said that the cold air is coming in quicker then thought!

[jbcmh81]

5PM Obs

 

http://goo.gl/maps/WZgV9

 

Mix being reported in the Dayton area.

[PennyForYourThoughts]

5PM Obs

 

http://goo.gl/maps/WZgV9

 

Mix being reported in the Dayton area.

Just spoke to my daughter in the Dayton area...she's says only rain at the moment where she is. 

[buckeye]

I remember the December 2004 in Columbus, man was it a nasty one. It was worse than the March 2008 big snow in terms of influence. Snow to ice, parts of the city were down, pre-Christmas................ah those were the days.

 

you know, I thought about that one too.  There are similarities with the first part of that storm and the current system.   I remember going to bed and the forecast was for rain in the morning with a slow transition to sleet.  When I woke up it was already snowing.   There was a push of arctic air from the nw and a baroclinic zone set up.  The radar was a constant train of snow from texas heading right into Columbus with virtually no movement east.   Of course that one had a strong low pressure system which came up through eastern OH and pushed warm air back over us.  In the evening the snow switched to sleet and freezing rain.  

But yes...that was a doozy!    The icestorm component was one of the worst in Central Ohio.

[Steve]

I remember the December 2004 in Columbus, man was it a nasty one. It was worse than the March 2008 big snow in terms of influence. Snow to ice, parts of the city were down, pre-Christmas................ah those were the days.

Remember that one well!! 2004

[vespasian70]

I wonder if we get a deep snow pack if that will affect the Sunday/Monday system. I'd hate to see a nice snowfall only to have it rained on 2 days later followed by cold Arctic air!

[jbcmh81]

http://goo.gl/maps/hNhYt

 

6PM

[oldlogin]

Just drove from Centerville to Northeast of Fairborn--Had some pingers on the windshield and the car temp registered at 36*  Raining moderately   in some areas

[Steve]

I wonder if we get a deep snow pack if that will affect the Sunday/Monday system. I'd hate to see a nice snowfall only to have it rained on 2 days later followed by cold Arctic air!

Only a high of 32 sunday..looks like frezzing rain..solid pack on top of snow maybe?

[buckeye]

I wonder if we get a deep snow pack if that will affect the Sunday/Monday system. I'd hate to see a nice snowfall only to have it rained on 2 days later followed by cold Arctic air!

 

I noticed the nam and gfs are trending colder with that event.   I wondered the same thing about how it will effect surface temps.    As far as rainfall destroying the snowpack, I think it was JB who once wrote something about a cold rain will actually be absorb into the snow like a sponge.    Just from my experience, it takes more than a few hours of rain to destroy a snow cover, especially when it's 35 degrees and raining.

 

first things first....let's worry about getting a snowpack

[Steve]

It is 37 here in Newark..temps seem to be dropping pretty quick!!

[vespasian70]

first things first....let's worry about getting a snowpack

Correct! Let's just hope we can thread the needle on this. What is your "gut feeling"?

 

I think the "trend is our friend".

[buckeye]

Correct! Let's just hope we can thread the needle on this. What is your "gut feeling"?

 

I think the "trend is our friend".

 

I feel good about it.  I think the models can be trusted with this. It's a pretty straight forward situation.  Just have to figure in the usual biases, (ie NAM overdoing qpf), and I think we do well.   Sticking with my 5" but hoping for more.

[jbcmh81]

I noticed the nam and gfs are trending colder with that event.   I wondered the same thing about how it will effect surface temps.    As far as rainfall destroying the snowpack, I think it was JB who once wrote something about a cold rain will actually be absorb into the snow like a sponge.    Just from my experience, it takes more than a few hours of rain to destroy a snow cover, especially when it's 35 degrees and raining.

 

first things first....let's worry about getting a snowpack

 

I just noticed how the NAM had 1.6" of precip in the form of snow for tonight through tomorrow, while the GFS has 1.19".  Kind of ridiculous and would be a historic storm if that was really all snow, even at a 10/1 ratio.

[JayPSU]

I just noticed how the NAM had 1.6" of precip in the form of snow for tonight through tomorrow, while the GFS has 1.19". Kind of ridiculous and would be a historic storm if that was really all snow, even at a 10/1 ratio.

Lol...I was telling my wife that a few minutes ago. If the totals the NAM and GFS have come true, we're talking historic amounts. My wife said, "you know that's not going to happen, right?" I think she's right.

[buckeye]

I just noticed how the NAM had 1.6" of precip in the form of snow for tonight through tomorrow, while the GFS has 1.19".  Kind of ridiculous and would be a historic storm if that was really all snow, even at a 10/1 ratio.

 

yea it's interesting because you expect that kind of silliness from the nam....but the gfs is usually nam's older sensible brother, and even it's going kinda crazy.   

 

Btw, should mention that this will not be a solid train of heavy precip for 24 hours, (although that would be awesome).  Models indicate a break in the morning.   I mention this for when Steve pops on during the 10am lull to declare the entire event a bust and winter over.   

[jbcmh81]

Lol...I was telling my wife that a few minutes ago. If the totals the NAM and GFS have come true, we're talking historic amounts. My wife said, "you know that's not going to happen, right?" I think she's right.

 

Me too, but I am thinking that 8"-10" might be a good bet along and north of 70/71.

[JayPSU]

yea it's interesting because you expect that kind of silliness from the nam....but the gfs is usually nam's older sensible brother, and even it's going kinda crazy.

Btw, should mention that this will not be a solid train of heavy precip for 24 hours, (although that would be awesome). Models indicate a break in the morning. I mention this for when Steve pops on during the 10am lull to declare the entire event a bust and winter over.

Lol...gotta love Steve's passion!

[jbcmh81]

http://goo.gl/maps/OcL1m

 

7PM Obs

 

Dayton and Cincy should be reporting some kind of mix at least by 8.

[BuckeyeSam]

I think all of us Ohio guys have seen far too many forecasts of 4-8" of snow only to wake up to sleet or a cold rain to get overly excited at this point.  Especially this early in the year.  We've all been burned many times before.  I'm hopeful for lots of snow, but won't be surprised at an inch of sleet.

[Steve]

yea it's interesting because you expect that kind of silliness from the nam....but the gfs is usually nam's older sensible brother, and even it's going kinda crazy.   

 

Btw, should mention that this will not be a solid train of heavy precip for 24 hours, (although that would be awesome).  Models indicate a break in the morning.   I mention this for when Steve pops on during the 10am lull to declare the entire event a bust and winter over.   

I don't think I have ever said winter cancel! Now if it was say January with misses already I may go thjat route..but this is earl Dec.So bring it on!!!    

[jbcmh81]

I think all of us Ohio guys have seen far too many forecasts of 4-8" of snow only to wake up to sleet or a cold rain to get overly excited at this point.  Especially this early in the year.  We've all been burned many times before.  I'm hopeful for lots of snow, but won't be surprised at an inch of sleet.

 

I'm encouraged by the downstream obs.  We will all likely start as a mix and even freezing rain, but only for a few hours at best if things continue east.