Pitmaster Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Got an inch in 30 min. today Damn - around the corner we ended up with a half inch. So much for me being in the jackpot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah, and agreed. It's bad enough when folks argue over which model to ride, but this is just pages and pages of disputing what the same model showed! It's not a good thing when all of your most vocal posters have minimal knowledge on the technical side of meteorology. And then u have their pbp poster stating "everyone is rain" which is far from the truth. If ur gonna do pbp for the ENTIRE region then you must include all areas or not do it at all. Too much imby nonsense in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro ensemble mean and control run JP this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yanks - what is 'JP' this area? Never heard that before? Thanks in adv! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yanks - what is 'JP' this area? Never heard that before? Thanks in adv! Jackpot, I don't want to get into specific totals because those maps are never accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wednesday morning sfc temps between -10F and -20F if you believe the 00z GFS. With a 1038 mb high overhead and a deep snowpack, some places will be beyond brutally cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z GGEM is a big hit for us up here.. Waiting for the precip totals but it looks like 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How's this for a thing of beauty? I'll delete in a bit but I figured this would plant some seeds for happy dreams tonight, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How's this for a thing of beauty? I'll delete in a bit but I figured this would plant some seeds for happy dreams tonight, lol. ecmwf_slp_precip_nyc_20.png Is that only a 6hr precip total?? Wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is that only a 6hr precip total?? Wow.. Yup, storm total is a uniform 1.3" to 1.4" for everybody, approaching 1.5" the closer you get to Port Jervis. All frozen for us obviously. This could be a big deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yup, storm total is a uniform 1.3" to 1.4" for everybody, approaching 1.5" the closer you get to Port Jervis. All frozen for us obviously. This could be a big deal! Damn could bring a few of us above 90" for the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Damn could bring a few of us above 90" for the season.. The Euro looked real nice for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Finally back after some wireless issues.. Stupid time warner... Looking pretty nice for a big storm Monday huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow at the cold temps modeled by the GFS!! Haven't taken a look at the Euro to see what it has, but that is obscene cold for March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro snow maps show an easy 12" for lost of the area and that's off 10:1 ratios which I think will be much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro snow maps show an easy 12" for lost of the area and that's off 10:1 ratios which I think will be much better As long as the DGEX and Euro ensembles are wrong this area should do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As long as the DGEX and Euro ensembles are wrong this area should do really well. suppression city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Carmel&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=41.4145&lon=-73.6838#.Uw9jzM4ZcnK check out todays new forecast for this afternoon, that drew a second look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Carmel&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=41.4145&lon=-73.6838#.Uw9jzM4ZcnK check out todays new forecast for this afternoon, that drew a second look Lmao someone screwed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Lmao someone screwed up I'm not sure... the AFD talks about some thermodynamic instability with the cold pool overhead so any squall may well produce a few minutes of S+ criteria visibilities. Who knows though. Albany suggests a quick 1-2" for some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm not sure... the AFD talks about some thermodynamic instability with the cold pool overhead so any squall may well produce a few minutes of S+ criteria visibilities. Who knows though. Albany suggests a quick 1-2" for some places. I agree, this type of setup can produce heavy snow, albeit for a short duration of time. The radar to the west looks decent but but has a ways to go to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 On another note, -2 for the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 A section of Upton's AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS FOR TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERSWITH ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ANDWINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENINGWITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.ARCTIC FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSSTHE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT OVERUNNING ACOLD AIRMASS IN PLACE IS PRODUCING EXPANDING LIGHT RADAR RETURNSACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL NJ...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE INTOEASTERN PORTIONS OF NYC AND LI/CT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITHFLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WITH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVELINSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 100 J/KG)...MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES FALLING TO CLOSE TO 10 C/KM...AND EVIDENT MOISTURE...HIGHCONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THEREGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SQUALLS WITH BRIEF WHITEOUTCONDITIONS AND A QUICK 1/2 INCH TO INCH OF SNOW ON ALL SURFACES.OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OFACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY JUST A DUSTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Man, the 12z Euro absolutely sucks. Went from widespread 1.5" liquid at 00z to a tight gradient delivering under half an inch north of I-84. 3-6" looks like a legitimate possibility based on today's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No need to freak out up here, we still have days and many more model cycles to work with. This is all model noise. Consider yourselves lucky that you don't live in New England on this one, that's who's really in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No need to freak out up here, we still have days and many more model cycles to work with. This is all model noise. Consider yourselves lucky that you don't live in New England on this one, that's who's really in question. I dunno... Poughkeepsie and Kingston are about at the same latitudes as Hartford and Providence, respectively, but where the New England cities have the benefit of longitude, I'm kind of "sucked up" into the gut of the interior, lol. Having some long-range threats makes it less abysmal to the dismayed upstate weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If this fringes the Mid HV and jackpots the metro area, then it will just be another example of the undeniable pattern this winter. At this stage, I really don't care. I feel like we had our storm 2 weeks ago when we all received close to 20+ inches. Whatever will be will be.. Will i get rocks thrown at me if I say that I am now keeping an eye out for rising heights and 850s at the tail-end of the ensembles in search for Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I dunno... Poughkeepsie and Kingston are about at the same latitudes as Hartford and Providence, respectively, but where the New England cities have the benefit of longitude, I'm kind of "sucked up" into the gut of the interior, lol. Having some long-range threats makes it less abysmal to the dismayed upstate weenie. Yeah you are further north but anytime they talk of a sharp cutoff to the north it potentially sucks for all of us. But like Yanks said- still a ways to go yet. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If this fringes the Mid HV and jackpots the metro area, then it will just be another example of the undeniable pattern this winter. At this stage, I really don't care. I feel like we had our storm 2 weeks ago when we all received close to 20+ inches. Whatever will be will be.. Will i get rocks thrown at me if I say that I am now keeping an eye out for rising heights and 850s at the tail-end of the ensembles in search for Spring? Yeah would be great to get one more big one- but I agree, whatever will be will be. If there ends up being nothing else in the cards for us then no complaints- it's been a great winter regardless. And I'm getting to that point where I'm looking forward to playing softball and watching the revamped Yakees take the field - only 8 weeks away! Weather permitting of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'll personally never tire of winter, but it looks like I'm in the increasingly small minority as we approach the equinox. Less than 40 weeks to go till December 1! Either way, I love the weather today. Building cumulus clouds, intermittent sunshine, little bouts of tiny snowflakes, 20 to 30 mph brisk winds... top 10 day of the season if you're into wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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