LakeEffectKing Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 First map of the year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 how about post that image for...oh i dont know...the actual landfall? Sure. 4 Day Loop http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5qoRJoF3Uo&hd=1 18z GFS Gusts 4am Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 This actually looks really decent now with -80C tops. I imagine if this keeps up, the LLC would probably gravitate towards the convective burst and begin to organize/strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Sure. 4 Day Loop http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5qoRJoF3Uo&hd=1 18z GFS Gusts 4am Sun Your Pensacola is about a 3.5 hours' drive off from where it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 First map of the year!!! Nice to have you around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Your Pensacola is about a 3.5 hours' drive off from where it should be. Haha yea I know I just threw this together real quick for the heck of it. Data sources are correct though regardless of marker placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMimmi Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Im in Fort Walton/Destin area and storms like this can intensify overnight just like Hurricane Opal did back Oct 4 1995 , I went to sleep thinking it would be a cat 1 to wake up to a monstor. I know it wont be like that but this one looks better tonight for sure than it did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Im in Fort Walton/Destin area and storms like this can intensify overnight just like Hurricane Opal did back Oct 4 1995 , I went to sleep thinking it would be a cat 1 to wake up to a monstor. I know it wont be like that but this one looks better tonight for sure than it did.... i think it will be a little while before significant intensification until the mlc and llc can align, but it sure does looks good I agree. looks can be deceiving though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 02/2345 UTC 20.1N 85.3W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 early intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I didn't even have to throw anything together... If you follow Ryan Maue or Joe Bastardi on Twitter, you get even better GFS wind maps tha . t also require no effort. Didn't know it was a contest. If you must know it took a whole 15 seconds to compile in Max and I would certainly take WSI's data feed over that. In any case 97L is looking a lot healthier. Recon sure spent a long time up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Didn't know it was a contest. If you must know it took a whole 15 seconds to compile in Max and I would certainly take WSI data over that. In any case 97L is looking a lot healthier. Recon sure spent a long time up there You should really ask Ian or Randy for a Pro tag at some point now that you've been working at WVEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 When is the next recon flight heading in? I thought the schedule showed an aircraft taking off about an hour ago but I don't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 stronger through 24. EDIT: wow down to 997mb thru 36 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 If there is a center... its likely around 21N 86W per microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 stronger through 24. EDIT: wow down to 997mb thru 36 already Huh NCEP site says 1008mb at 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Huh NCEP site says 1008mb at 36hrs. He is looking at the higher resolution grids (not 0.5 degree resolution which is the only thing available on the NCEP page) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 He is looking at the higher resolution grids (not 0.5 degree resolution which is the only thing available on the NCEP page) Oh thanks, I thought there was something better out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 984mb landfall along the panhandle near Ft. Walton & Destin per 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 strongest run yet, steadily strengthens from now until landfall in 78hrs. nice band of convection surrounding the coc at landfall with 85kt winds at 900mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 If this is shooting through the channel, that means it is going east of the 0Z gfs, which has it hit the corner of the Yucatan. Also, the Euro is obviously going to have a horrible bust, especially considering it did that far west, weak thing run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Sure. 4 Day Loop http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5qoRJoF3Uo&hd=1 18z GFS Gusts 4am Sun wow according to this, the northeast gets the best winds out of anywhere from this. How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 When is the next recon flight heading in? I thought the schedule showed an aircraft taking off about an hour ago but I don't see anything. Looks like its suppose to be taking off at 0530z so in another hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Folks, The 0Z Thu Euro is finally caving into the much more realistic GFS with it having 97L ~100 miles east of its 12Z and earlier runs at hour 42 and significantly more organized with lower SLP vs. its earlier runs. I expect it to come even further east and be even stronger in later runs. It is still ~100 miles west of the 0Z GFS. Edit: It is now up to 80% chance from 70% per NHC as of 2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The Euro (like all models) has had significant issues picking up on the genesis and intensification of small tropical cyclones in the past - good examples are Karl in 2010 and Marco in 2008. It's interesting to see that GFS has done better than the Euro with the genesis and intensity of the most significant Gulf/BOC systems - Barry, Fernand and Ingrid. It looks very likely that Karen will join that list. The GFS has overdone a few systems that didn't develop because of convective feedback, but its rate of false genesis within 5 days appears to be much less of an issue than in prior years. It seems recent upgrades have significantly improved the GFS's performance with genesis and TC intensity. Folks, The 0Z Thu Euro is finally caving into the much more realistic GFS with it having 97L ~100 miles east of its 12Z and earlier runs at hour 42 and significantly more organized with lower SLP vs. its earlier runs. I expect it to come even further east and be even stronger in later runs. It is still ~100 miles west of the 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 While the 00z ECMWF is completely different on the intensity of 97L the first 24-36 hours, it still decouples the mid-level vortex from the surface circulation thereafter and takes the llc into LA by 66 hours on 18z 5 Oct (Saturday) as a much weakened system. Ordinarily I'd be willing to trust the ECMWF a lot more, but there simply isn't a strong upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico, just a weakening shallow shear axis that could easily be amended by strong diabatic outflow from a TC. I think the GFSs take of 97L is more realistic than the ECMWF's take in which the system's outflow is able to modify the upper-level wind profile enough to mitigate the strongest southwesterly flow. This will still be a sheared TC, but it will be similar to Ingrid, fighting back with attempts to establish outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Also I think this is the smoking gun the NHC needs to upgrade at 5am. Say hello to Karen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Not too often we see an invest at 40 knots. That guarantees we'll go straight to a TS once it is classified. Someone's weekend is going to be messed up. Combined with the major winter storm and severe weather event up north, this is turning out to be one heck of a start to October. At 0600 UTC, 03 October 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 21.5°N and 86.6°W. The current intensity was 40 kt and the center was moving at 11 kt at a bearing of 335 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 984mb landfall along the panhandle near Ft. Walton & Destin per 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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