bluewave Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 The 6z rgem matched the 0z euro. However, the new 12z rgem, now looks like the NAM and the rain mostly misses the area. So, the euro SHOULD come in drier, but the euro has had major issues the past month with precipitation forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised if it comes in wetter then the entire suite again. It was always showing a sharp cutoff across the region, but the boundary and storm will be just a little further east. The 12z model runs have been doing well for warm season rainfall once they initialize where the rainfall and convection actually is. That's why guessing day 2 convection here is such a roll of the dice. The SPC even has a difficult time with there day 2 outlooks around our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 some places are likely to set record low maximums depending on where they were at midnight last night...temps steady here b/w 60-62 although my davis notes it was 66 at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 To bad we're likely going to just miss the coastal. Still waiting for my catastrophic flooding rains that I was promised a month ago. who promised you that? With all that warm water off the coast, we'll turn wetter sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 some places are likely to set record low maximums depending on where they were at midnight last night...temps steady here b/w 60-62 although my davis notes it was 66 at midnight. Central Park was 68 at midnight est... todays record low max for... LGA... 73 in 1974 73 in 1964 Kennedy... 72 in 1977 73 in 1964 Central Park... 62 in 1871 69 in 1902 Newark... 73 in 1969 74 in 1964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 As sharp as a cutoff as possible with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 i think i need to burn bibles for warmth. thankfully august looks hot If you live in Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 They finally fixed the MAG site. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER In MAG version 3.0, the interface returns to the look and feel of the website prior to the NOAA Web Operations Center (WOC) system crash in December 2012. The graphical image processing is now done on NOAA’s new Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). The back end processing code has been rewritten to improve monitoring capabilities and allow for upcoming changes to be more easily updated. The web interface has been simplified and rewritten in PHP and Javascript and depends on a XML-driven design. The MAG is no longer dependant on a relational database. Features in v3.0: • LoopingisnowHTML-5compliant,makingitavailabletosmartphonesandothermobile devices. • TropicalGuidanceisonceagainavailable. • Four-panelchartsareavailableforselectedmodelsandareas: • GFS:NAMER,EPAC,NPAC,andWNATL • RAP:NAMER • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC • Accesstolargeandsmallimagesisavailableforselectedmodelsandareas: • GFS:NAMER,NPAC,andWNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • RAP:NAMER • WW3:WNATL • WW3-WNA:WNATL Upcoming Changes MAG v3.1: Late September 2013 • Updatethecontourintervaltoevery2dminsteadof4dmforallmodelscontaining850-1000mb thickness maps • EnlargeSouthPacificareatoincludeAustralia • Add925mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • Add500mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • UpdateGFSandNAMprocessingtocreatelargeandsmallimagesfortheEPAC MAG v3.2: Late December 2013 • Addloopingtofour-panelproducts • Add700mbRelativeHumidityandHeightparameterfortheGFS,NAM,andHRWmodels • AddAlaskaregionfortheSREFandRTMA • AddChoicetoloopevery3hoursorevery6hours • AddPrecipitationTypetoallappropriatemodels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 They finally fixed the MAG site. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER In MAG version 3.0, the interface returns to the look and feel of the website prior to the NOAA Web Operations Center (WOC) system crash in December 2012. The graphical image processing is now done on NOAA’s new Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). The back end processing code has been rewritten to improve monitoring capabilities and allow for upcoming changes to be more easily updated. The web interface has been simplified and rewritten in PHP and Javascript and depends on a XML-driven design. The MAG is no longer dependant on a relational database. Features in v3.0: • LoopingisnowHTML-5compliant,makingitavailabletosmartphonesandothermobile devices. • TropicalGuidanceisonceagainavailable. • Four-panelchartsareavailableforselectedmodelsandareas: • GFS:NAMER,EPAC,NPAC,andWNATL • RAP:NAMER • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC • Accesstolargeandsmallimagesisavailableforselectedmodelsandareas: • GFS:NAMER,NPAC,andWNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • RAP:NAMER • WW3:WNATL • WW3-WNA:WNATL Upcoming Changes MAG v3.1: Late September 2013 • Updatethecontourintervaltoevery2dminsteadof4dmforallmodelscontaining850-1000mb thickness maps • EnlargeSouthPacificareatoincludeAustralia • Add925mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • Add500mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • UpdateGFSandNAMprocessingtocreatelargeandsmallimagesfortheEPAC MAG v3.2: Late December 2013 • Addloopingtofour-panelproducts • Add700mbRelativeHumidityandHeightparameterfortheGFS,NAM,andHRWmodels • AddAlaskaregionfortheSREFandRTMA • AddChoicetoloopevery3hoursorevery6hours • AddPrecipitationTypetoallappropriatemodels And it still looks like something straight out of 1996 that should be running on an old, basic Windows OS. I really can't believe that is the best design the National Weather Service could come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Incredible, I've got falling temps in the middle of the day in the hottest climatological week of the year. Down to 65.3F now from 67F earlier this morning. NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Incredible, I've got falling temps in the middle of the day in the hottest climatological week of the year. Down to 65.3F now from 67F earlier this morning. NE winds. Surprised no updates from Mt. Holly or Upton. Still going with low to mid 70s. I just don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 And it still looks like something straight out of 1996 that should be running on an old, basic Windows OS. I really can't believe that is the best design the National Weather Service could come up with. You should see the graphics with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Surprised no updates from Mt. Holly or Upton. Still going with low to mid 70s. I just don't see that happening. upton had 72 here, they had 77 last evening...we've hung around 60-62 all day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 If you live in Phoenix. you called for august to be the warmest month relative to average in your summer outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 You should see the graphics with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. hey now, it's still very useful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 And it still looks like something straight out of 1996 that should be running on an old, basic Windows OS. I really can't believe that is the best design the National Weather Service could come up with. They should have let a university met dept design it for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 12z GGEM brought back the big coastal for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Euro finally backs off tonight. It took until inside of 12 hours to get the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Radar shows this setting up as a New Haven east (Eastern LI too) event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Radar shows this setting up as a New Haven east (Eastern LI too) event. Looks like a continuation of our winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Long Island can have this one, keep it dry for those of us going to the Bon Jovi concert tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Euro finally backs off tonight. It took until inside of 12 hours to get the correct solution. But it's still good to hump the Euro for every forecast, right?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 But it's still good to hump the Euro for every forecast, right?!?!? I've been saying that it's been having a MISERABLE time over the past month. It's weird seeing the euro struggle so bad. It's had terrible fails even inside 48 hours and sometimes even inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I've been saying that it's been having a MISERABLE time over the past month. It's werid seeing the euro struggle so bad. It's had terrible fails even inside 48 hours and sometimes even inside 24 hours. What does it show for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Why is the Euro having so many issues with how much precipitation ..it's been pretty bad lately..hope it gets better for the Winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 What does it show for Sunday? .56" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 It's not just been the Euro, its been the RGEM, GGEM and NAM to an extent also. 4k NAM and regular NAM haven't been in good agreement in awhile. The GFS has probably been the best model recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 .56" for NYC. GGEM clobbers I-95 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Similar cool/cloudy day last July 20th with highs around 70. Chalking up a -10 or more departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 GGEM clobbers I-95 east I know. It has 2.50" for NYC. NAM has almost zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 As soon as a big storm is possible all the models go insane, its like they get worse every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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