bluewave Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 The CFS did very well with the July forecast the last two summers. The last three Julys featured a very strong ridge over portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. This year the models are focusing in on a dominant Western Atlantic Ridge. If this pattern persists for the whole month, then it would mean our fourth July in a row with above normal temperatures here. I think that the models are focusing in on the more positive NAO this year which is often associated with a strong ridge in this position. SACRUS has done a great job keying in on this feature and the type of weather to be expected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 I'll be on the road tomorrow if we don't get deluged in the morning...I'll be reporting in from south Carolina tomorrow night...Florida on Tuesday...At this time I think I'm going to see more rain than Sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 I'll be on the road tomorrow if we don't get deluged in the morning...I'll be reporting in from south Carolina tomorrow night...Florida on Tuesday...At this time I think I'm going to see more rain than Sun... Safe travels, hope it stays dry for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Why is there another July thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Why is there another July thread...sb7881 started that thread over a week ago and should either be deleted or merged into this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 With 850 temperatures of 17 degrees Celsius, westerly winds surface and aloft, I would add about five degrees to GFSX MOS Max temps. for the upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 1.14" of rain this morning... smh The last thing we need up here is more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 1.14" of rain this morning... smh The last thing we need up here is more rain That's a long line of training strorms moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Warren county NJ under some intense training. Should be a flash flood warning for them soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 If this was winter..this board would had been in suicide alert. My god. The west and south of jersey has been getting storms after storms for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Great discussion bluewave. That southerly fetch stretches all the way to Cuba. Storms riding the rim/ede of the expanding WAR - but the batch over DELMARVA should get the area later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Flash flood warning issued for parts of northeast NJ and eastern Orange and Rockland counties. Also a severe t-storm warning for Morris, Somerset and Middlesex NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Strong but broad rotation on radar with that storm over Somerset, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Strong but broad rotation on radar with that storm over Middlesex, NJ It's starting to become more consolidated. Looks to pass to the south of where I live but might get me here at work. From the warning DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 My best storm of the year so far and it comes at 9am, go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Training is going to be a real problem today. The train of storms extends all the way down into the NE Gulf of Mexico. The next batch of serious rain looks to be coming through DE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 It's moving into Morris and Union counties and has a developing hook echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 It's moving into Morris county and has a developing hook echo. The rotation is definitly becoming more consolidated. I wonder if they pull the trigger soon on a TOR. Tough to say as it's about to cross over into a new CWA. Edit: Tornado Warning issued! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 wow BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY914 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 945 AM EDT...* AT 913 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NORTH PLAINFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SUMMIT BY 925 AM... MILLBURN BY 930 AM... UNION BY 935 AM... ORANGE BY 945 AM...THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER AWORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT ISAVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN ANINTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TOCOVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE ASUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THENEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Fairly pronounced hook echo on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Fairly pronounced hook echo on radar Headed right towards the city That was pretty intense. Not much thunder and lightning but with the rain and wind you could barely see 100 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Headed right towards the city That was pretty intense. Not much thunder and lightning but with the rain and wind you could barely see 100 feet. Looks to pass over southern Bergen County and then into Weschester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 The southern chunk will hit the City!... and pass me to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Headed right towards the city That was pretty intense. Not much thunder and lightning but with the rain and wind you could barely see 100 feet. Figures I miss it, I'm down in Holmdel working. Wonder how warlock made out in the torrential downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Figures I miss it, I'm down in Holmdel working. Wonder how warlock made out in the torrential downpours Hearing reports of flash flooding out my way over the fire band. (NE Morris County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Rotation weakening in the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Figures I miss it, I'm down in Holmdel working. Wonder how warlock made out in the torrential downpours Very windy, rainy, and lots of lightning here. The storm has gotten more impressive since it hit Somerset County though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Tornado Warning dropped - Makes sense given current radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Figures I miss it, I'm down in Holmdel working. Wonder how warlock made out in the torrential downpours He had rain for 10 minutes now the suns out and he's out mowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Just as I was about to head out the door the skies opened up for one minute downpour then stopped then after 15 minutesof nothing we got an intense downpour for 15 minutes with some rumbles of thunder but no wind and not really severe. Lighter stuff now and maybe getting to the back edge very soon. Hope to get back out abour 11 and cut some of the lawns that drain well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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